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HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS! CAMPAIGN 41 DRAWING TO A HEART STOPPING CONCLUSION – May 1, 2011

[Ottawa – May 1, 2011] – In what has been the most exciting federal election in many years, Campaign 41 is drawing to an exciting and as yet unclear conclusion. The Conservatives are at 34.6 points, while the NDP is three points back at 31.4 and the Liberals at 20.4. The Green Party is at 6.3 and the Bloc have dropped further to a modern low of 5.4 points nationally and a mere 22.8 points in Quebec. Of those who are “certain to vote”, things are tighter still with the Conservative lead reduced to a scant 2.4% (34.8 vs. 32.4, which is statistically insignificant). The Green Part is reduced to 5.6 points and all other parties remain unaffected.

Using these numbers, and we will reserve the final forecast until later this evening, we would see a Conservative minority where the NDP were within 20 seats and the NDP and the Liberals combined would have a narrow majority between them. This means that if there was common will between the NDP and the Liberals, they would have both the legal (and according to our recent polling on the topic) the moral authority to swiftly dispatch Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party.

There are, however, some final movements which could alter the final configuration of the next parliament. At the top of the list are younger and women voters. Although these voters have moved dramatically to the NDP, they are still somewhat less committed to their choices. There is, however, little evidence that they are actually likely to move as their second choices (Liberals and Greens are fading). Ontario remains crucial and there may be evidence of a late strengthening of Conservative support (possibly due to the leak of the massage incident).

It is also the case that there is massive vote splitting which favours the Conservative Party. It is notable that the Conservatives are ticketed to do much better than they did in 2006 but with a significantly lower share of the popular vote.

Quebec is abandoning the Bloc Quebecois even further and the NDP could virtually sweep that province in a breathtaking development. Collectively, Quebeckers are most responsible for what will be a dramatically different Parliament. A key remaining question is whether the final vote will all show up. The Conservatives are certain to do so and the NDP voters say they are equally resolved. However, the resolve of the Conservative supporters is proven while the NDP vote a little less so. Offsetting that potential advantage, however, is that most of the remaining softer vote (i.e., women, younger voters, dispirited Liberal and Bloc supporters, and quite significantly the one million odd Green voters) is much more likely to turn NDP than to any other choice. The NDP ceiling is now 55 points, fully 11 points above the Conservative Party.

British Columbia shows a strong Conservative base but also a remarkable rise in NDP support and the party now leads insignificantly there. There have been no real changes in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but the NDP may well be on the rise in Manitoba. Ontario is showing the Conservative Party widening its lead slightly but mostly due to a saw off in the now tied NDP-Liberal race. Quebec is painting itself orange in a remarkable display of unanimity. The Atlantic provinces remain locked in a tight three-way struggle but the NDP are showing a late spurt there which has placed them in the lead.

We are going to take the unprecedented step of interviewing on the final day of the campaign. We are also going to apply a sophisticated multivariate commitment index to try and focus as accurately as possible on those who have or will actually vote. Coupling the latest data and these refinements to focusing on those most likely to vote, we will offer our final forecast tonight around 10 pm.

Right now, it appears as if Canadians are going to elect a conservative minority with the NDP close behind. At this stage, our best guess is that the combined opposition forces, without the Bloc Quebecois, would have a majority of seats in this new parliament which could ring a death knell for Stephen Harper’s Conservative government.

Click here for the full report: full_report_may_1_2011

37 comments to HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS! CAMPAIGN 41 DRAWING TO A HEART STOPPING CONCLUSION – May 1, 2011

  • Tracy M

    Hi Frank:

    Thank you for the polling info this election. I really appreciate how careful you are to conduct statistically sound polls, and to offer such complete info on how your polling stats break down.

    Cheers.

    Tracy

  • What a tight race! I’m still rooting for a Harper Majority. The NDP’s proposed spending is SCARY! Time will tell the results…….

  • Marcos

    Change is coming folks NDP NDP NDP!

  • Erik Swanson

    I’ve been following the ekos website and the NDP seems to be rising in the polls daily.
    Jack Layton will be PM by October.

  • To all readers of this page, I’d like to say that this is a bright day for Canada. Harper will be defeated in tomorrow’s election and the “dangerous” coalition will force representatives from all over the country to work together and represent ALL Canadians. This will mean that the views of the people who voted conservative/ndp/bloc/liberal will all be taken into account when parliamentary decisions will be taken.

    Why am I so sure this will happen?
    I believe the new political layout of the HOC will force politicians to work together and compromise with each other in order to make government work. Harper knew this, and he’s like the angry child in the sandbox. He doesn’t like playing with the other kids. Yet alone working with them. Thats why he wanted a majority.

    Thus,tommorow, I believe there WILL be change…

  • Nelson T.

    I dunno, folks. The Conservatives are still planning on going ahead with the Death Star.

  • Becky

    Soft vote? I’m young, I’m a woman, and I’ve voted NDP already. Equal Voice has been doing a great job of engaging young female voters. And with Jack’s commitment to improving gender parity in the house – 40% of NDP candidates are women – we are looking at an unprecedented opportunity for female leadership.

  • Shaun L

    Harper has/will be defeated. Matt Johnson – if you really hoped for a Harper government then I really question your intelligence. Harper would destroy Canada far worse then any “scary” spending. But let me tell you this – in Man the NDP government there have consistently had a balanced budget also a surplus in many times. The NDP’s record is far better than the Libs and the CPC and if you believe Harper then you really are not looking at the facts. The only NDO government to run a huge debt is Bob Rae’s and he is now running for the Libs so there you go.

    Harper should be arrested for his crimes against Canadians!

  • TS

    All the “NDP proposed spending is scary” comments… it’s not going to work! The people have spoken & Hopefully enough will tomorrow. Jack Layton will keep Canada IN Canada & FOR Canada. NDP Vote Here!

  • InfoJunkie83

    I have been saying this for awhile. However I will say it again, be careful with you’re vote if you are using it “strategically”. Don’t let a so called strategic vote help keep the Conservatives in. Although say Liberal voter was in second last election, they could and most likely are in third with an NDP incumbent now in second. If you do employ this tactic please think hard, and know that what you are doing is for good and not bad. With that said Orange Crush Ride the Wave all the way to Parliament. Jack Layton as Prime Minister.

  • Susan Robertson

    Thanks for this summary! I’m lovin’ it…
    GGGooooo Orange Crush!

  • Wayne Bradley

    Why is the North not factored into this? 4 seats could turn out to be very important….

  • G. Anderson

    If the NDP does as well as forecast and, heaven forbid…form a coalition government, the inescapable fact will be established that a majority of Canadians are fickle and uninformed, and we will all suffer the consequences of their collective folly.

    To simply jump on the bandwagon and vote for a party simply because the leader has a nice smile, a mustache and a cane (and seems like a fun guy to drink with) only proves that “the people” are not always “right”. In Canada most voters are decidedly “left”, at any cost. Unfortunately for the rest of us, we’ll have to suffer the economic consequences along with those who voted to toss out the leader and his government which has presided over the best economy in the free world, simply because they were bored, greedy and, to be kind, stupid.

    With all the man-made turmoil going on all over the world, I guess Canadians are tired of their “boring” leader (I thought he was “scary” last time) and would rather create some excitement of our own. What better way than to elect a socialist government with no experience at governing, whose newly elected candidates will have to quit their summer jobs to become Members of Parliament. But at least the leader isn’t boring….Do you think Stephen Harper might have been more electable if it had been he, not Jack Layton, who the police caught naked in a bawdy house?

  • Ken

    Wake up people. The Consevatives have skillfully guided us through one of the worst global recessions in recent memory and people are actually thinking of replacing them with an NDP who wants to spend billions we don’t have. Give The Conservatives their majority.

  • Tyler

    Interesting to see that polling shows no significant change in Saskatchewan. I live in Saskatoon and I’ve noticed a dramatic increase in NDP campaign signs across all four local ridings and a similar reduction in Conservative campaign signage compared to last election, although I imagine the NDP has always been generally stronger in the urban sections of these ridings, and weaker in the rural sections.

    Anyhow, I’ll be casting my ballot in favour of the NDP in the traditionally highly competitive Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar riding tomorrow. Hoping to see a co-operative NDP – Liberal administration with a strong Conservative opposition to keep them in check and, but regardless of who wins what I REALLY want to see is less grandstanding, less mud-slinging, less pandering, and more actual WORK getting done on Parliament Hill.

    A man can dream, after all.

  • Ken

    I am not sure my first comment got through.

    Wake up people.
    The conservatives have skillfully guided us through a world recession and people are actually considering replacing them with the NDP who want to spend billions we don’t have. Let’s give the conservatives the majority they deserve.

  • Ernie

    Which parties will get out the vote? Will young voters show up at the polls? How will three-way ridings in Ontario break? Who the heck knows anything??? Incredible.

  • Dave

    I am going to go out on a limb here and say that the Conservatives will do much worse than predicted. The last minute appeal for Liberal voters by Harper is disgusting a lot of undecided voters and is backfiring badly. They see it is creepy for man hell bent on destroying them to now be begging them for their votes. There will be an NDP/Liberal coalition government within months.

  • Ivor Biggun

    @ Matt Johnson… Are you insane?!?!?!?!?

    You must work for a multi-national, or at the very least, be a chemical fertilizer salesman! Only a true Conservative would be more concerned with money than a sovereign Canada with little or no dependence on American business or IMF criminals.
    Stephen Harper and his merry band of criminals deserve to be disbanded completely. The Conservatives are a disgrace to democracy; and anyone who supports them certainly doesn’t support Canada.
    Happy voting.

  • Richard McNamara

    It is a vote against the HARPERS style of politcs rather than a vote for the NDP. The election are for the parties in power to loose.

  • A. S.

    Change is coming if the left vote isn’t split in Ontario. Vote strategically folks so we have a solid coalition government.

  • JNG

    “We are going to take the unprecedented step of interviewing on the final day of the campaign. We are also going to apply a sophisticated multivariate commitment index to try and focus as accurately as possible on those who have or will actually vote. Coupling the latest data and these refinements to focusing on those most likely to vote, we will offer our final forecast tonight around 10 pm.”
    So at 10pm tonight Frank is going to release real results instead of his “push poll” results. Every election EKOS has the Tories way down until the last possible moment. To have bragging rights and make EKOS look credible, Frank tells the truth so that after the election he can say he was very accurate. All Ekos results leading up to the final day in the campaign are meant to encourage and increase the left wing vote.
    I suspect at 10pm tonight there will be a lot of disappointed Lefty voters. Keep in mind that even though the last poll results tonight will show the most accurate picture of all Ekos polls to date, they will still show the Conservatives down a point or two from where they will end up tomorrow night. I guarantee this!!!

  • Mark W.

    Well done..hopefully vote splitting will not cut into the sensible need for a strong NDP official opposition. Later an agreement with the Liberals with Jack Layton as PM would provide the best government for our social democratic Nation.

    Tommy Douglas “The Greatest Canadian” would be proud of Canadians today…peace,social justice, a strong federation, environmental regulation, progressive taxation, support for those in need,support for arts and culture, support for the middle class and workers etc etc these are the traditional canadian values that the CON hegemony has ignored.

  • Katherine

    I really hope you’re right and Harper doesn’t get more than another minority, but last time all of the polls underpredicted Conservative performance, and they’ve got a really strong and determined ground game this time around.

    Still, pretty excited about the decline of the Bloc and the prospect of an NDP official opposition!

  • Stanley

    I am very concerned about a Harper Majority, we will lose so much of ourselves. Please go out and vote strategically. Stop harper from getting absolute power. please I beg of you. I would trust almost any other conservative, but I do not trust Stephen Harper, his past haunts me this day.

  • Robert

    Will you be doing seat projections? From what I understand results cannot be posted after 12 am therefore there are 12 minutes remaining before it is 12 in Nfld.

  • Dan

    If you truly want to see how the NDP will affect Canada financially, just watch the stock markets. The TSX is going crazy with every Poll, and not in a good way. If the financial markets get the gitters with just the thought of the NDP gaining ground in the election, can you imagine how fast the investors are going to jump ship if the NDP becomes the Goverment. Watch the death of our economic recovery unfold

  • calturns

    D Robert @5:43

    If Mr Harper was frustrated and angry at times it’s because it is not a sandbox. It is serious, important business. Unfortunately, many MPs did act like children in a sandbox. I beieve the voters saw this and, as a result, many of them will not be returning to Ottawa after tomorrow. I do agree that there will be a significant change in the tenor of discourse in Parliament after this election, regardless of the winner.

  • J C

    It’s May 2nd here (12:05am NF time) Too late to post now?????

  • Chris Keevill

    Tomorrow is the day we begin to bring a new wave of social change and innovation to this great country. We in the east need to begin to think of how we being the west in on a truly Canadian movement. It is what has always made Canada a force of a nation.

  • J. Silva

    There is nothing scary about the NDP’s proposed spending money on the people…Corporate had their way since Brian “Marooned Canadians” Mulroney was in power. Wall St., Bay St. and banks losing billions of dollars from our economy with the Tax payers having to bail them out and the first thing they do is “loot” the system by giving themselves huge bonus. CEO made an average of $10,842,238.00, in 2009; while the average Canadian earns only $42,982.00. Where is the justice, where is the fairness in this. Conservatives cant Govern in the way Canadians have told to do so 4 times in the last 7 years. TIME for CHANGE!!!

  • malcolm

    I am equally concerned with the prospect of an NDP government, from a leader that seems to think that private enterprise does not bring more efficiency, and a conservative majority that promises more punishment, and less sense on the justice portfolio. Best option would be a a conservative minority, that keeps sense in the fiscal house, and limits the populist foolishness on the crime agenda.

  • Dave

    This is the first election that I can recall every vote and every riding may very well count. Fundamental change is good for democracy. If the polls are correct, the NDP will have a broader representation of the country with seats in every province (even Alberta) which is good for the country. I hear that many inexperienced MP’s may be elected, I am certainly not concerned that someone other than a professional politician will represent my interests. It is also quite concievable that the Greens elect an MP. Incredible!!!

  • Wayne N

    An NDP-Liberal coalition may make some of the Bay St. fat cats a little nervous, but for most of us it is not nearly as scary as the idea of a Harper majority in charge of Canada. His secretive, autocratic, vindictive, and controlling style showed his contempt not only for Parliament and the opposition, but for a majority of Canadians, in the way that he tried to push through policies opposed by most of the populace when he had the support of less than 40%.
    Ignatieff blew his chances when he also stated that he would not join a coalition government even if that was what the election results showed would work best. Unfortunately, I will likely end up voting Liberal, although my preference would be Green, as the NDP candidate is almost unknown in this riding, and any bleeding of the Liberals to NDP will only help the Tory candidate here.

  • Ryan

    Harper will turn Canada into a police state. Did anyone forget what happened in Toronto during the G20? Watch the youtube videos, Harper passed a secret bill to empower the police.

    He’s oblivious to the fact that he’s dangerous. We can’t keep him around any longer.

  • I believe that a Harper government would destroy medicare..they will start slowly privatizing and in five years we will be like the US.Harper plans to spend 30 billion buying US jets..think what Candians can do with that money.
    It would more than cover the cost of Layton’s promises.

    The one way to ensure that our CPP, old age pension and medicare programs don’t go the way of the “dodo bird” is ensure that Harper is defeated…vote strategically and we will see this come to pass!

  • Naveed

    A Harper majority would be very dangerous for this country with right wing policies and no concern for citizens rights at all or democracy.
    Harper acted like a dictator in five years and his two minorities, what do you think he will be like if there is absolutely no redress to his decisions and actions?
    Its very scary.

    I am very happy to see this Ekos poll and prediction. But Canadians have to vote strategically today (election day).
    Vote for NDP if in your specific riding they have the best chance to defeat the Conservative candidate. Vote Liberal if in your riding they have the best chance to defeat the Conservative candidate.
    Only this way will we have a possibility of not only preventing a Harper Conservative majority, but also be able to totally displace Harper and send him packing from Sussex drive soon! By the look of things it may end up a Jack Layton NDP Coalition government backed by Liberals, and that is what can be achieved IF WE VOTE STRATEGICALLY against the Cons!
    Go Canada!