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Ontario PC Tied With Governing Liberals – April 16, 2013

ONTARIO ELECTION UNLIKELY IN NEAR FUTURE

[Ottawa – April 16, 2013] – Back in February, our poll showed that Kathleen Wynne had been successful in breathing new life into the Ontario Liberal Party. The party had elected a new leader and, as is typical in the wake of a widely-covered and highly-energized leadership race, party supporters across the province were ecstatic. The party jumped from the losing end of a three-way tie to enjoying a small but statistically significant lead over the two opposition parties.

Two months later, the Ontario Liberal Party is holding steady. The Progressive Conservative Party (PC), however, has improved its fortunes during this period and now stands in a statistical tie with the governing Liberals. The four-point lead enjoyed by the Liberals has shifted to a one-point deficit. Furthermore, the PC does comparatively better with returning voters (specifically, those who voted in the 2011 federal election) who have a much higher propensity to actually show up and vote on Election Day.

The NDP, meanwhile, appears to have shed the support it picked up in the wake of Dalton McGuinty’s resignation and the party has returned to its third place standing. If there is good news to be found for the Liberal Party in this poll, it is that these numbers may stave off the NDP’s appetite for another election, at least for the time being. Indeed, if the Liberal government is open to co-operation with the NDP, they will likely succeed in extending their shelf-life.

Lastly, it is worth taking a look at the underlying demographic patterns behind these numbers. We find that the PC does impressively well among men, while NDP support is skewed somewhat towards women. The Ontario Liberals hold a commanding lead among the university educated, while the PC leads handily among high school and college graduates.

Click here for the full report: Full Report (April 16, 2013)

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