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Deadlock Broken, Liberals Surging

SENIORS MOVE BACK TO LIBERALS IN A BIG WAY

[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] In a major development, the weekend reveals a late but clear movement to the Liberals. At 36 points, the Liberals have a four-point lead over the Conservatives and are now poised to recapture power after nearly a decade in the political wilderness. This movement is rooted in a shift of the critical seniors’ cohort and a strengthening of their lead in Ontario. It may well be that Hurricane Hazel was a key force in both of these movements.

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The bigger picture: How did we get here?

We can say that this election has been qualitatively different than what it had been billed as. What was supposed to be an election that was all about the economy became an election that was all about the niqab. But the niqab gambit, which initially diverted voter attention from a moribund economy and elevated the Conservative prospects, has transformed further into a broader struggle about what values will define Canada in the future. This strategy may well have backfired on Stephen Harper as it may have awakened the progressive and moderate majority and caused senior Canada to rethink its commitment to his cause. The higher levels of emotional engagement expressed in more educated Canada may well trump the turnout advantage that Mr. Harper enjoyed with seniors in 2011 (which seems much weaker in 2015).

We have clear evidence that the public do not see this as a ‘business as usual’ election. In addition to telling us that they are much more emotionally engaged than usual, Canadians tell us the stakes in this election are very high and that their lives and the country’s trajectory will be different depending on what transpires tomorrow. While a debate about the economy was very important, a struggle about which values will define Canada in the future became even more important.

The public tell us that nothing will be more important than values in their final decision making. And while Mr. Harper wins public opinion around the niqab issue, he appears to have lost the broader values war he ignited. The critical fault lines are generational and social class/human capital. There are clearly more engaged voters on the progressive side of this broader values struggle than on the conservative side. They do, however, continue to be camped out across four progressive options which work strongly in favour of Mr. Harper. Unlike in 2011, the progressive voters are apparently more engaged and we predict more likely to show up.

The race has shown late upward movement for the Liberal Party, particularly in the critical Ontario arena.

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Some areas of uncertainty

  1. Will the Liberals trend further upward?
  2. Will cellphone-only households actually show up?
  3. Is the late senior conversion to the Liberals genuine?
  4. Why are Liberals higher with a live interviewer than with the robot?
  5. How will Quebec and British Columbia conclude?

Conclusion

So the stage is set for a momentous contest for the future of the country and which values will guide the future. The complex set of forces means the outcome is not certain. We do, however see a different result than in 2011.

Prediction

We have shifted from too close to call to a clearer prediction based on our latest data and final methodological deliberations. The Liberal Party of Canada is poised to return to power with at least a clear minority and possibly a majority. We will be offering a seat forecast tomorrow.

Methodology – Vote Intention

The data on federal vote intention involved a blended sample collected using two separate methodologies: Computer Assisted Live Interviews (CATI) and EKOS’ proprietary High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The figures in this report are based on a three-day rolling sample. Each day, a new day’s worth of interviewing is added and the oldest day is dropped. The field dates for this survey are October 16-18, 2015. In total, a random sample of 2,122 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (1,524 by HD-IVR, 598 by live interviewer). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Methodology – Election Issues

This study was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. We believe this to be the only probability-based online panel in Canada.

The field dates for this survey are October 8-12, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,124 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here for the full report: Final Report (October 18, 2015)

165 comments to Deadlock Broken, Liberals Surging

  • Glen

    EKOS release this number to agree with the other polls.
    These polls are not accurate!! We will see tommorow. Don’t uner estimate the incumbent!! I am disappointe with you guys!!

  • Glen

    EKOS release this number to agree with the other polls.
    These polls are not accurate!! We will see tommorow. Don’t under estimate the incumbent!! I am disappointed with you guys!!

  • Ian

    Wait what? How did two polls come out in the same day with way different results? It seems like EKOS is just trying to put themselves more in line with the other pollsters.

    • Ian

      Could someone please explain how that worked?

      • Bruce

        If I’m reading correctly, the difference seems to be that this most recent assessment includes the results of polling done today.

      • Hi Ian,

        The results we released this morning were based on a two-day roll-up (Friday-Saturday). We kept the phones going today so the results we put out just now are based on a three-day roll-up (Friday-Sunday). Whatever the reasons, the Liberals saw a huge surge over the past two days, which is why our numbers changed so significantly.

        Cheers,
        EKOS Research Associates

        • TIMADENS

          Honestly, I am still having a hard time to believe the different polls and the fact that Canadians would put emotion over plain intelligence. I will like to reiterate that the country will regret if indeed Trudeau became the PM. The PC party is the only party that can steer the fortune of this country during this hard time. Just look at Mr. Trudeau’s resume for a moment, it is not impressive to say the least. May God intervenes in our dear country!

          • Glen

            TIMADENS. Don’t give up yet, the polls are bias; PLEASE GO AND VOTE!!

            THE MEDIA is Very anti-conservative; The polls (nanos) are done for the Media companies

          • Raunch

            You are asking God’s help for the Cons? Wow !

          • Katie

            I can’t believe it either, Timadens. I would say these people deserve what they get, but the problem is that the rest of us will be dragged down with them, as unfair as that is. Harper is definitely the most sensible choice, but it would seem this disease that kills off all common sense within a large populace has traveled from the U.S. and is now affecting Canadians. These people who are obsessed with getting rid of Harper and completely infatuated with Justin Trudeau have an internal sickness caused mostly from external influences, and it seems to be very contagious. Too weak to fight it off, they turn away from logic and base their opinions on pure raw emotion only. It clouds their judgment, but they don’t care because they enjoy the feeling they get from it, like a high I suppose, which is probably one of the main reasons they’re voting for Trudeau in the first place.

            I’m sad to say that if these polls are correct, Canada with all it’s freedoms and values as we know it will be gone. Trudeau wants to surge in thousands upon thousands of migrants with a completely different culture and belief system that isn’t compatible with progressive first-world countries and modern times. They force their barbaric beliefs on us, and we are just expected to be accommodating no matter how unreasonable. People chalk up this concern for Islam invading our country as Harper just fear mongering, ignoring the reality of it. They refuse to do their own research to find out exactly what’s happening in Europe with these migrants, mainly the rape crisis there. http://www.dailystormer.com/immigration-has-made-sweden-the-rape-capital-of-the-world/
            http://www.infowars.com/report-german-media-covering-up-rapes-committed-by-muslim-migrants/
            http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3247831/Rape-child-abuse-rife-overcrowded-asylum-centres-huge-surge-migrants-pushes-Germany-s-services-breaking-point-claim-womens-rights-groups-politicians.html#ixzz3mliDCL4p

            As a woman, I’m extremely concerned about this, and if Justin Trudeau, against all logic and all that is well and good, becomes the Prime Minister tomorrow, I will start carrying pepper spray or a small weapon for my own protection. This isn’t something I ever had to do before. It’s extremely disturbing that it’s more important to vote in someone who offers to legalize marijuana, that the risks to women and children from male migrants are just overlooked.

            How Trudeau plans to pay for all those promises he’s made will affect the majority of Canadians in a very negative way. With higher taxes and carbon taxes on top of that, it will become too expensive to live in Canada. It’s way too expensive here already, and when it gets worse, many will end up in poverty, or having to leave the country, especially when corporations have had enough of Trudeau and leave Canada for greener pastures. It will be an absolute disaster, and anyone who hasn’t succumbed to brainwashing can clearly see the bleak future that an incompetent and extremely immature person like Trudeau offers our country, but unfortunately there’s nothing we can do about it. Though uninformed people shouldn’t be voting, we can’t stop them from doing so. We can only hope the polls are inaccurate, because Canada will not survive the reign of Justin Trudeau and his communist leanings. http://www.torontosun.com/2013/11/08/trudeau-admires-chinas-basic-dictatorship

            Shame on everyone who votes for this man-child. The security and prosperity of your country should come before your own selfish emotionally invested requirements and whims.

          • Remington

            TIMADENS

            Don’t worry! I and countless other Canadians are going to flush Mr. Harper and his collection of stool samples down the toilet tomorrow at the polls. You needn’t worry, we’ll put him and his turds out of misery forever so you don’t have to worry your pretty little head over anything anymore!

          • Bruce M

            Emotion = people making a choice you disagree with.

            I think we can all point to plenty of emotion, if not hysteria (have you forgotten the niqab already?) coming from the Conservative camp.

          • Tom

            Sadly, the PC Party is long gone. All we have is Harper’s Reform alliance.

        • Bruce M

          OH, Katie, calm down. You’ll be fine, even if Mr. Trudeau wins. Put the pepper spray away. Really!

          • Katie

            Bruce M, if anyone should calm down it’s the hysterical Liberals raving against Harper. Did you even read the sites I posted? The FACT is that there are very good reasons to fear for the women and children of Canada. This is the difference between Conservatives and Liberals. Conservatives base their opinions on real facts while Liberals live in their own imagination and pass it off as truth anyway, even when it directly contradicts reality.

            Your attitude of just brushing off the dangers Muslim migrants pose disgusts me to no end. If Canada does end up in the same state as let’s say Sweden, (which is now the rape capital of Europe thanks to Muslim immigration), then who’s to blame? Not Harper, although I’d bet you’d try to blame him anyway. No, the ones to blame will be Trudeau, and people like you who put an idiot in the most powerful position in the country.

          • Bruce M

            Your anger has become so extreme that you have become delusional. The is no Muslim plot. I hope you can find some peace in your life. Take care.

    • Glen

      Don’t look at polls, they are bias.

      • Jeremy

        Is that because they don’t confirm your own bias? I would imagine if they were screaming Tory victory you would be posting onto the front door of your house!

        • Glen

          Jeremy, We will see tomorrow don’t under-estimate the incumbent !!!

          • Bob

            Glen,
            Don’t underestimate: the level of discontent across Canada with Harper; the effect of a lack-lustre campaign by Harper; the effect of a positive campaign, as promised, by Trudeau; and finally, as Brian Mulroney said, “Don’t underestimate Justin Trudeau.”

        • Raunch

          Up until today, the Con supporters were pushing Ekos as the only legitimate poll. Now, that it is showing different numbers, they think it is garbage. I think this poll is probably the most genuine of all the recent Ekos polls, as it is lining up with all the other polls.

      • Nim

        Remington that’s disgusting. See this is why only mature and intelligent people should be allowed to vote. People like Remington don’t care what’s best for the country, they just want a crappy Trudeau government so it’ll be easier for them to get their hands on pot. The studies are true: pot does damage undeveloped brains and we are now going to get a Liberal government that will devastate Canada because too many of these mentally and emotionally unstable people went out to vote.

        • Raunch

          Nim,
          You should not comment on things you know nothing about.
          Having smoked pot in my younger days……..and drank my face off in my younger days……I can speak from experience in saying that pot is much less harmful than alcohol. It mellows you out and normally leaves you in a good mood. Alcohol, on the other hand, can cause much more serious health risks (not to mention that it’s a depressant). I would much rather be in a room full of people who have been smoking pot (normally mellow and happy) than in a room with a bunch of drunks (depressed, loud, nonsensical, over-emotional, inflated sense of self and one’s strength). Doctors prescribe marijuana, in this day and age, for a variety of ailments. If it was harming their patients, I am sure they would not prescribe it. Right now, the sale of recreational marijuana is illegal…………but it is everywhere. Most kids would know where to get it.
          The only people making money off of it are criminals. 5 U.S. states have legalized it ( including Colorado and Washington). They have not fallen into the sea. As a matter of fact, Colorado has made hundreds of millions of dollars off the sale of pot, which they are putting into the economy. They commissioned a study by their police force to see if impaired driving had gone up since legalization……..The year end report showed that it had not gone up, at all. 11 more U.S. states are considering legalization (including California). As I mentioned before……..pot is everywhere (I’ll bet a lot if your fiends smoke it, and you don’t know it). Let’s take the huge profits away from the criminals, let the government control it’s sale (same rules as alcohol………legalization will probably make it harder to get for kids ), and let’s use the $$ made off of it’s sale to enhace programs (especially healthcare).
          By the way………………….I stopped smoking pot decades ago (expense and boredom being the main reasons). I stopped drinking years ago , because it was damaging my helth (but, I would not come on here and suggest that alcohol be banned).

    • Matt

      The earlier poll didn’t contain today’s polling.

      This one does.

  • Glen

    EKOS release this number to agree with the other polls.
    These polls are not accurate!! We will see tomorrow. Don’t under estimate the incumbent!! I am disappointed with you guys!!

  • Glen

    Yes; I asking the same question.. two polls in the same days different results. unbelievable !!!

  • Glen

    Don’t look at polls, they are bias.

  • Glen

    Why is my comment awaiting moderation.!!!!

    • Dale

      Glen, the numbers don’t lie. Harper has the worst job creation since world war 2. Today will be historically awesome. I voted PC last two elections. Not today though. They brought this on themselves. Can’t force feed intelligent Canadians American style republican politics any longer. Hope you don’t become overly depressed today Glen, when your PCs are destroyed.

  • Francis

    End of an Era. Celebrating already

  • Sheila

    I assume that this morning’s poll was yesterdays results.

    & that Frank has had the phones running pretty much all day.

    We’ll see

    although Hurricane Hazel is wonderful 🙂

  • Steve

    78. Days. And nothing but stupid self serving polls
    Next to nothing on actual ( in depth ) party platform
    Now the polsters are telling us that ” seniors ” moved overnight ,because a former eastern mayor did a 30 second commercial
    That’s it. That’s what we are left with
    Wow

  • Tom

    The earlier post was for data from last night. This one includes today’s polling data. Nanos is also publishing a second poll later tonight, before the Elections Canada deadline.

  • “Why are Liberals higher with a live interviewer than with the robot?”

    you really gotta figure that out. i’ve provided some ideas. but, you really need to work that through.

    i just want to add that the comments i’ve posted are not meant to be generalized. the dynamics of this specific election – where 2/3rds of the population sees the two opposition parties as interchangeable – is not likely to repeat itself.

    but i would also point out that you were lowballing the ndp when they were ahead, too. whatever explanation you get should have to explain both of these things. mine can do that.

    • Jeremy

      It is interesting. I have heard some say the “shy Conservatives” are more likely to hang up the phone (based on UK studies). Without declaring my own support – I know I hang up the phone anytime I hear a robo-dialler without waiting to here what it is about.

      • the thing with biases like this is that they’re constantly shifting, constantly cancelled out, constantly complicated…

        i’ve posted here a few times. i think he’s picking up a “dithering progressive” reaction over ivr, where liberal-ndp swing voters are having a harder time committing to a machine, but are reflecting social bias on the phone.

        you can transfer the mainstreet results down from 38/33 (decided only) to 34/30 (including undecideds). it’s harder to do that with ekos’ data because he’s mixing sample, which i think is really the core of the inconsistencies. but, i would suspect that those results would scale down consistently – at least with the conservative vote.

        he may actually simply be correctly picking up that the polls putting the liberals over 35, and heading to 40, are picking up a lot of very soft liberal support – people that would tell a live interviewer they’re voting liberal, and legitimately will probably vote liberal if they vote at all, but are, in their heart, truly conflicted.

        if a polling company is meant to predict results, it’s a crappy result. if it’s meant to understand what people are actually thinking, there’s perhaps some usefulness in what he’s picking up.

        ways to know frank was picking something up:

        1) an unexpected last minute low turnout leads to a higher conservative outcome. this may happen if the ditherers can’t pull the trigger and stay home.
        2) there’s an unexpected surge in ndp support. i know he’s not picking that up. but he seems to be picking up huge amounts of indecisiveness (that maybe broke at the last minute).

        caveat: i’m interpreting these results in ways the pollster has not, and likely would not (yet) endorse. but, i’m mildly worried about (1), if not particularly worried about (2).

        • Bruce M

          Re: 1. For what it’s worth, maybe not much, I voted at 7:15am and had to wait 20 minutes or so. I’d never had to do that in any other election. I think we may see a high turnout, driven by a craving for change. But of course, like everyone in here, I like to imagine that other people agree with my brilliant ideas! 🙂

  • Curious

    Amazing how the polls can change so drastically in 24 hours. After 10 years of voting Conservative in massive numbers…poof! Seniors now love the Liberals. It almost seems like … BULLSH*T. I hope this guy is correct for his sake. After being so terribly wrong in 2011, a second straight stinker and nobody this side of NOW magazine will hire him to do political polls.

  • Steve

    ” Some areas of uncertainty ”
    Only 5 of them !

  • JD

    Switzerland held their parliamentary elections today (Sunday), and an anti-refugee party won the elections there. It will be interesting to see if the Canadian media will CENSOR this news item tonight.

    In Germany, they are talking about “Asylchaos”. Again, Canadians are blissfully unaware of this because of media censorship.

  • Nadezhda Krupskaya

    The pollsters are doing what they usually do toward the end of a Canadian federal election campaign. They are playing Fun With Figures in an attempt to herd the sheeple into the Liberal camp. I hope that tomorrow’s results will be like those of the recent British election. Like Harper, David Cameron was vilified by the mainstream media, written off by the pollsters and dismissed by the opposition. On election day in the U.K. the closet Conservatives came out in droves and handed Cameron’s Conservative Party an upset victory over Labor. The Conservatives crushed Labor by 98 seats. Let’s hope for the sake of Canada’s future that we are about to see our own David Cameron phenomenon as the ballots are counted tomorrow night. The pollsters, the media and the smarmy Liberals need just such a comeuppance to put them in their place.

    • Glen

      Yes; the polls are done for the BIG Media companies. These companies are VERY ANTI-CONSERVATIVE!!!

      • Dan

        Glen, relax, drink water. All the “media” you are talking about endorsed the conservatives…

        As for the change in the numbers today, I can only guess, Harper’s picture with Ford… did the job for the liberals. Thanks Rob for twitting!!

        • Glen

          Rob Ford is still popular in TO; He could win again if he runs for mayor. That would/will not change the numbers.

        • Matt

          Back 25 years ago, the media outlet would do their own polling and hire a pollster to analyse the data.

          Angus Reid said that cost lots of money. Today he estimates the TOTAL media spend on all these polls is about $200,000. The parties are spending multiple millions on internal polls.

      • Most of the POLLS are sponsored by right wing institutions. The GLOBE [NANOS] and POST MEDIA.

    • Raunch

      Yeah……the polls for the National Post (Postmedia), Global News, and the Globe and Mail (who all have the Libs in front) are trying to support the Libs? Seriously?
      3 weeks ago, when Nanos, Ekos, Angus Reid, etc. were showing the Cons taking a lead over the other two parties, the Con-friendly commentors on here thought these polls were legit.
      Now, because these polls show different results than what you want to see….you think they are garbage. Well, good luck with your way of thinking. Seems a little hypocritical, don’t you think?

      • i’ve been wondering for a while if there might be a kind of scare tactic at play, to rev up the base.

        but, at the least, you don’t expect nik to play around with this. he nails elections. you can do just about anything you want with an online panel at this point, then blame it on untested technology. but, nik has a reputation, and if he’s putting those numbers out, it’s because he believes in them.

  • Raunch

    Nanos poll out an hour ago:
    Libs 39.1
    Cons 30.5
    NDP 19.7

    Bye bye, Stevie !

    • Glen

      Nanos Polls are done specifically for the bias Big Media companies; don’t look at those polls.

    • Matt

      It is probably bye bye Stevie even if the CPC get a minority.

      But, the votes haven’t been counted yet. The Liberals still need to turn their poll support into actual votes, efficient votes. Get out the Vote efforts will decide the outcome.

      I live in a “battleground” riding that is being considered a toss up between the CPC and Liberals (currently CPC) in media riding polls.

      No Liberal campaign literature from the candidate. No calls from the Liberal candidate.

      Received multiple pieces of literature and calls (live and robo) from both the CPC and NDP.

      • Matt

        Forgot to add, does the lack of Liberal activity point to lack of ground game? Liberal internal polling showing a big lead? Big deficit?

        • Raunch

          And in my riding (rural Ontario) which was considered a safe Con riding, I have seen nothing from their candidate, delivered to my home. I did see that he bought out the first two pages of the local newspaper to get his points out……..I guess that he had to, considering he only showed up to 2 of 9 local debates (and he only showed up to those after the organizers promised to give him the questions in advance). The Cons were so sure that they would retain this seat that they put almost no effort into their candidate selection (oh wait, his daddy owns the local Canadian Tire….they sold party memberships out of the store). Anyway……..an 18 point lead for the Con has turned into a horse race with the Lib.

    • Glen

      less than an hours ago nanos said lib was at 38 % now they changed it to
      39 %

  • Robert

    Nanos poll has been showing large gap between Lib and Harper, ( the party of one ) for near week.

  • Glen

    I will post a comment later when conservative WIN !!!

  • Raunch

    I guess this is the last poll:
    Forum
    Libs 40
    Cons 30
    NDP 20

    Threehundredeight.com has taken all the different polls,weighed the averages, and come out with their final numbers .
    Libs 37.2
    Cons 30.9
    NDP 31.7
    The seat projections are:
    Libs 146
    Cons 118
    NDP 66
    BQ 7
    Green 1

    They say the numbers seem to support a Liberal minority, however, they also point out that if a lot of factors go their way, the Cons could still eke out a minority.
    Robert Fife (Political Bureau Chief for CTV) stated tonight on the National news that even a Conservative minority will not be enough to keep them in power.He thinks that Justin Trudeau (with the support of the NDP) will be granted the chance to govern by the Governor General.
    Harper is gone.

  • Johhny B Liberal

    Party time for progressives!

    Vivre le higher taxes and more government!

  • Raunch

    NDP numbers from threehundredeight should read 21.7

  • John Graham

    Looks like the trend is clear now. The anti Tory vote is coalescing around the liberals. Now that Quebec is swinging the Liberals are set to win 185 seats, Conservatives about 95, NDP down to less than 50. Big Liberal majority. You heard it first here. Unfortunately I am not a Liberal. ..

  • Jamboy

    Oh; GOD please help us in this Election.
    A liberal Government is the worst thing that can happen to Canada at this time.

    God please hear my cry!!

    Poll will be open in a few hours, so God please speak to the minds and hearts of all Canadian who are heading to the polls today.

    The CPC approach to the Economy is much better than Libs, so God please help us.

    In jesus name we pray!!

    Amen

  • The CBC’S POLL TRACKER POLL AVERAGE WHICH TAKES ALL POLLS INTO ACCOUNT.
    The CBC doesn’t sponsor any of the polls.

    POLL AVERAGES : Taking all of the many polls into account :

    LIBS = 37.2%
    CPC = 30.9%
    NDP = 21.7%

    NANOS is sponsored by the GLOBE & MAIL [they have endorsed the CPC but not HARPER] and CTV.
    Those are HARDLY left wing institutions.
    NANOS has the largest numbers of people asked and the least chance for error of any poll.

    What you polls do not show you is how 71,000 students voted at their schools.
    How the FN Peoples vote will affect voting in 51 Ridings. I don’t think that many of those people will be voting for HARPER.

    The polls do not show you how many people didn’t answer their phones. Some pollsters say it was as high as 90%. I didn’t answer my phone [caller identification] and I voted Liberal.

    EXOS themselves stated in another article that their numbers for the CONS for the 3.6 MILLION who voted the advance polls , could be lower because they could only get a certain amount of callers answering their phones.

  • James Wolfe

    Trudeau part 2, just like daddy, a lying pro bill 101 scum bag bigot from Quebec, now…?

    Who is voting Liberal = Trudeau part 2, mmm?

    This is the party of massive government growth and debt under Trudeau 1, Lalonde, the party of forcing a new flag on the nation, forcing bilingualism (French) on the country while allowing English to be banned (allowing bills 22, 178, 101…) in Quebec, forcing multiculturalism, renaming our founding constitution the BNA act and forcing a french style charter upon the country signed only by people from Quebec (Trudeau, Ouellette, Chretien)… The party of adscam, the funneling of millions into Quebec, Shawingate, hotel burning, contracts on napkins, cash changing hands in brown paper envelopes in Quebec restaurants, the party of the most corrupt, slimy, sleazy province in the country (MacLean’s magazine), where mayors all across the province are being charged with corruption, fraud, money laundering, bribery… ongoing trials as we speak, the party of equalization (the stealing of your money and funneling billions into Quebec, every year for over 50 years now …), the stealing of farm land (Read The tragedy of Quebec)…

    This is the party of massive government growth, deficits, high greedy public sector salaries, high taxes, and more debt. Who is voting for this party? Well let’s see how corrupt, crooked, and greedy the people of Canada really are. These people are your neighbors, nice eh?

    • Tom

      Haters will always hate.

    • The LIBS are not in power now. HARPER is. It HARPER’S corruption and lies that are at issue. Not a party from decades ago. What is next ROB FORD as Ethics Minister? Why are WRIGHT and RAY still working for HARPER??? I could go on and on.
      If you want to play that blame game I will.
      Recently the ALBERTA CONS left the NDP at $$$ 6.9 BILLION deficit in ALBERTA.
      The PAST Liberal federal Government saved CANADA from a whopping $$$ 52 BILLION deficit that the CONS under Brian Mal. left them.
      Not only did the LIBS of that time balance the books they had many balanced budgets and surpluses. The LIBS also passed the CLARITY ACT.
      In fact the LIBS left HARPER a surplus. How did that turn out. HARPER = 2 recessions and 8 deficits.
      One could argue that HARPER’S fiscal mis management was the result of a world economic down turn. I think that counting only on the price of OIL was a huge lack of judgement.
      However , if that is HARPER’S excuse then you would have to say the same thing about ALL OTHER parties in power when a world economic down turn effected them too. YOU CAN’T have it both ways…lol…
      Blaming other Parties isn’t your best argument for voting for HARPER a gain. IS IT?
      Dividing Canada though fear ” us against them ” etc…Is more in line with the crazy faction of the REPUBLICAN PARTY. Those are not Canadian values , are they???

    • Raunch

      You seem to have conveniently forgotten the last Conservative PM (before Harper) taking envelopes of cash from a german businessman for his help in lobbying for Skybus. Then, the same ex-PM took the Canadian taxpayer for millions when he was awarded damages in a libel case against the Canadian government. Years later, when Lyin’ Brian admittedto taking the cash and making false statements in a courtroom, all he got was a verbal censure and a slap on the wrist. The sitting PM should have demanded that Mulroney pay the Canadian taxpayer back…….but he didn’t. The sitting PM was Harper….and Harper does not go after Conservatives. Keep your holier-than-thou comments to yourself………they may play to the 30%of people who will vote for the Cons no matter what)……….but they look ridiculous to the rest of Canadians who want change for better government. Harper came to power promising accountability and transparency? What a joke! His goverment has been the sleaziest..most secretive government this country has ever seen. He said he was going to annihilate the Liberal party. I just can’t wait to see his face tonight when he makes his speech, knowing he has just lost to the Liberals……..and even better……..a Trudeau!

  • jim

    Loks like CONS are grasping at straws. Harper deserves to be toast. Katie, whoever you are, is the type of Chicken Little that Haper panders to. What you wrote is disturbing and disgusting. I hope you live is small town Alberta where everyone is white and keeps a white cloak with hood in their cupboard. God help you if you went to Calgary and bumped into (wait for it) their Islamic mayor. People like you have elected Harper and thus allowed him to run rough shod over the Charter, Supreme Court and common decency. Have you not considered the fact that most of his closest advisors jumped ship before the election.

    Unlike Harper, Trudeau will take counsel from knowledgeable people who’s only agenda isn’t taking care of corporate Canada and the destruction of Canadian values. I look forward to a Harper free future.

    One last thing – you can get counselling for your Islamiphobia. However, Tea Party people like you would rather suck lemons that get help.

    The people of Canada will speak en mass today. Let’s hope for a beautiful, bright Harper free Canada.

    • Ian

      What a disgusting comment. You just showed that you are the exact same type of person that you claim she is.

      • jim

        Ian, I’m so sorry you found my comment disgusting. Was it that I thought Katie’s comments were small minded, bigoted and that she shrouds her racist comments by telling us she has Black and Asian friends. If so, just disregard my comment. I am far from being the person Katie is or might profess to be. Enjoy election night.

        • Rachel

          Hey Jim not everyone is racist because they don’t like the Islam religion. Just stuff it with your accusations. I can’t stand people who cry racism when something has nothing to do with the color of the person’s skin. If anything YOU’RE the small-minded bigot by throwing around accusations of racism when there was no actual racism. Get some psychiatric help.
          Oh and it was your hero Trudeau that was recently accused of racism towards black people but I doubt you keep up on his misdeeds the way you do Harper. Liberals are nothing but Hypocrites and their arrogance and stupidity makes me physically ill.

          • Raunch

            Hey Rachel……..why don’t you check out some of Katie’s links mentioned in her above posts. The link to The Daily Stormer is rather interesting, especially the Nazi eagle on the top of the page and the “Jews are the enemy” statement in the margin.
            You are defending someone who has neo-nazi views.

    • Katie

      No jim, you are definitely the sick one. I even posted sites that back up my comments, but all you can do is respond with incoherent statements and insults. This is typical bullying Liberal behavior.

      Oh, so now people who don’t want Canada to turn into another Sweden are racist? White hoods, really? My black and Asian friends would especially take offense to your pathetic observation. The fact that people like you scream racism right away forces everyone to walk on eggshells, and that is unacceptable in a country that values free speech. People will no longer be bullied into silence by the likes of you.

      Islamophobia is not the right word when the Muslims you’re worried about are the ones who come here and droves, force their beliefs like Sharia Law in any country they settle in, rape, and honor kill. That can’t be considered Islamophobia because it’s not an irrational fear. Even moderate Muslims are scared of the extremists. I suggest you get some counseling to overcome your disconnection from reality.

      • RAUNCH

        Katie,
        You love to show links to websites to back up statements you have made. O.K. Show us where Trudeau has said that he is going to open the doors to massive numbers of new immigrants, especially muslims.
        Seriously……..one reputable source (reputable being the operative word). I checked out a couple of the links you have given in above posts………….I have to seriously question what you consider fair journalism. I now understand why you consider Canadian journalism as too ‘lefty’. Most of your links are to ‘news’ sources that the average Canadian would find offensive (they make the SUN look like NOW magazine). You took me to a link to der stermer (with the Nazi eagle on the typehead…..the articles have to be seen to be believed!) and want me to believe the article is fact? You know……..I have, on a few occasions, thought about calling people nazis because of the offensive statements they make (but I didn’t because I thought it was way too harsh). I will give you the benefit of the doubt and just tell you (in case you don’t get it)…….Der Sturmer is a neo-nazi website. I hope you don’t give that link to too many more people, because you are insulting the memories of anyone who went through the horrors of World War 2 (be they Jew, french, british, dutch, polish, czech, or anyone else that came in contact with the nazis). If you are an example of today’s Conservative (and I really don’t believe that you are) then Canada is in big trouble.

        P.S. Harper (your hero) has been letting 250,000 immigrants in to Canada each year, since he became P.M. Those are his words from the Munk’s Debate (I know because I was there). Jason Kenney (former Immigration Minister) has said, on many occasions, that the Conservative government increased immigration by 14% over the previous Liberal government. I guess, in your opinion, that they are weeding out all the muslims…….If the Cons increase immigration it’s good? Your argument (and your extreme right-wing links) is really sad.

      • jim

        Hi Katie, sorry if I offended you. To be fair we must make room for all types of people in Canada. Even people like you who think they are providing intelligent comment on election matters. The reality is that what Muslim wome wear when they swear the Oath of Citizenship should never have been an election issue. It should have been left to the Supreme Court to decide. Sadly, your deluded party leader tried to use it to divide Canadians and win the right wing fanatics vote. Fortunately enough people saw through him and he will be removed as PM of this great country. As to your mental state, you can decide on that yourself. If your comfortable with your paranoia about Muslim people and don’t hurt anyone then I am happy for you.

      • RAUNCH

        Ooops…….I forgot to mention that website (The Daily Stormer)you want everyone to look at is calling Jews ‘the enemy’.

        • jim

          Nice one RAUNCH. Just what Canada needs – Storm Troopers in leather jack boots goose stepping across the rights of true Canadians. Maybe Harper should have grown a nice little moustache for the election and started wearing cool uniforms like some of those deluded dictators who, just like Stephen, were dispatched to the midden of history. The sun will rise on a better Canada tomorrow.

          • RAUNCH

            Agreed. I have some friends that are extremely pro-con, but none of them would likely read articles on a site like that, let alone post a link to it.

      • Rachel

        Katie; Sorry that you’re being attacked by the left-wing liberal scum. That’s the way these idiots think, and sadly Canada is becoming a worse place to live because of it. I too am sad to see my country fall apart thanks to these idiots who simply ignore the truth. Anyone who looks at Europe can clearly see what’s happening there and we can only hope that it won’t happen here in Canada, somehow Trudeau will be stopped from turning our country into a migrant ghetto.
        It’s better to stop replying to people like Bruce, Jim and Raunch, the fact that they throw around insults like neo-nazi is plain and simply evil and I hope karma will one day catch up to them. I just hope it won’t be at the expense of Canada as a whole. These people truly are brainwashed by Trudeau-mania and their comments prove that Trudeau changes people for the worst; that is if these guys weren’t all jerks to start with. People like you and I have too strong a mind for Trudeau’s brainwashing to work, that’s why these jerks attack you like wild dogs especially when they know what you’re saying is true but will do anything to defend their precious little Justin. Like I said, don’t bother replying to them. They are a lost cause and hopefully one day they will come to their senses but I doubt it. They seem too far gone.

        • Raunch

          If you are reading the Daily Stormer (as well as Katie) then you are a clueless racist.
          You call me left-wing liberal scum? You don’t have a clue , little girl. Why don’t you show that article to jewish person and see what they have to say. If you think that this kind of website is o.k., then I feel really sorry for you. You are a perfect example of why the Cons, and Harper, were crushed tonight. The average Canadian has said enough is enough regarding low-brow, negative, racist opinioning. Let me say something nice about Harper and most Conservatives………….there is no way in hell that they would be caught reading that kind of garbage……..let alone believe it. The majority of them would not stoop that low. It is people like you that have helped hurt your party in this election.

          • jim

            Katie and Rachel – you are two prize winners. I am open to any and all sensible discussion on the political front. However, your comments border on paranoia. But that’s alright cus those of us slightly left of centre are adept at accepting one and all for the better of Canada. That’s what immigration is all about as well. Remember Katie, Calgary has an Islamic mayor. Right in the heart of red-neck country. Be very afraid.

  • DR

    God is over all and that includes governments. He is able to do far exceedingly above all which we ask or think.

    Refer……

    Ephesians 6: 11, 12
    Put on the panoply of God, that ye may be able to stand against the
    artifices of the devil: because our struggle is not against blood and flesh, but against principalities, against authorities, against the universal lords of this darkness, against spiritual [power] of wickedness in the heavenlies.

    Colossians 1: 16
    because by him were created all things, the things in the heavens and
    the things upon the earth, the visible and the invisible, whether thrones, or lordships, or principalities, or authorities: all things have been created by him and for him.

    1 Peter 4: end 21, 22
    by [the] resurrection of Jesus Christ, who is at [the] right hand of God, gone into heaven, angels and authorities and powers being subjected to him.

    If Trudeau gets in today it is under the hand of God, we can pray about it and appeal to God to come in for our nation but what happens is under his control and completely his matter. And if Trudeau does happen to get in as PM, don’t anyone forget that God could remove him from government as quickly as he installs him. We have all the rest of today to appeal to God in prayer that he might come in an grant us a Conservative majority government in view of right principles being upheld in this country.

    • HARPER will win only if they cheat AGAIN. MacCleans is a right wing Magazine.

      • Nim

        The only ones I’m worried about cheating are the Liberals. I still can’t fathom that so many Canadians would vote for someone who looks and acts like a little kid.

        • Bruce M

          Because he proved in the campaign that he was not a little kid, but a mature man with some reasonable ideas for getting this country moving again and getting away from all the negative politics we’ve had for nine years. He stood up to Harper’s meanness and came out of those debates showing passion and integrity. Like many Canadians, I had doubts about him, but I now think he will do just fine if elected PM.

        • Jeremy

          Seriously? How does he act like a “little kid”? From what I saw of him he has charisma and excellent leadership qualities. He is eloquent, personable and – perhaps more importantly – believable. I know the CPC line-of-attack was that he is too young etc. etc. — but it would be worth noting that Harper was the same age when he first ran for PM and no one accused him of the ageist comment of being ‘too young’.

      • TrudeausmashHarper

        And they WILL cheat. There’s no doubt.

      • Nim

        Oh and did you even read the article? Doesn’t sound very right-wing to me. They’re as biased left-wing as pretty much every other media outlet out there.

        • Raunch

          Yeah……blah blah blah……..National Post, The Sun, The Globe and Mail, Global TV……..all that nasty left-wing media. Postmedia is the largest newspaper chain in Canada and everyone of their papers (and accompanying websites) endorsed the Conservatives in this election. I guess that’s not good enough for you. In your perfect world, every media outlet should be extreme right.

    • Bruce M

      Macleans talks quite a bit about the UK election. The difference between our election and the UK election is that two pollsters in the UK actually predicted the 6 point victory for the Conservatives, while the others had them tied with Labour. And the conservatives did indeed win by 6 pointes.

      In our election, no one has the conservatives ahead. It’s still possible for ALL the pollsters to be wrong, like they were in BC, but it seems extremely unlikely. They are quite paranoid just now about their poor reputation, and want to get this one right.

      I hope they did.

    • Glen

      Still not counting out Harper!!!

  • jim

    DR – You must have spent a lot of time watching Jimmy and Tammy Baker in the past. Yes, Trudeau and the Liberal will win the election and if so inclined God will smite him. Where was God when Harper was breaking the laws and running amok in Ottawa. Oh, that’s right, this is how you determined that Harper did no wrong and was acting for the lord. Otherwise fire and brimstone would have rained down. God Bless the Canadian Tea Party. DR there is help for you out there. You just have to reach out and ask.

  • Libbby Lib

    The Harper dictatorship must end now! Change is good donkey!

  • James

    The numbers I find most interesting are the 8% undecided and the 14% who did not give a valid answer.

    A few questions I would ask in the future if I were polling might be;

    1. Have you ever NOT cast a ballot in a federal/provincial election
    2. Have you ever lied about your voting intentions on a poll

  • Roy

    I was going to vote for Mr Harper until I saw him with cuddling up to the Foord brothers. This tells me he will do anything to get elected and I am voting for Liberals.

  • Jeremy

    As an aside – I wonder who was running the CPC campaign. Were the PR guys sleeping or deliberately trying to tank things?

    * I thought the ‘game show’ spot made Harper look absolutely foolish. Like a car salesman completely with bad ad. He is not the most affable individual in the country and I don’t think setting him up with a cheesy cash register sound in the background played to his strengths nor the office of PM.

    * Was showing up with the Ford’s “jumping the shark”? While it may play strongly to Ford Nation — it can only be viewed as a hypocritical last grasp given the CPC ‘law-and-order’ platform and stance on drugs and it has been pilloried even in the right wing media (e.g. National Post).

    Normally the CPC runs such slick campaigns but these were some major failing IMHO. Perhaps it is because they were running from behind rather than ahead?

  • Jamboy

    Oh; GOD please help us in this Election.

    A liberal Government is the worst thing that can happen to Canada at this time.

    God please hear my cry!!

    Poll will be closing in a few hours, across this great nation and I know that you have listened to my cry!!

    The CPC approach to the Economy is much better than Libs, so God please help us.

    In jesus name we pray!!

    Amen

  • Jamboy

    Libs looking good in AT Canada, but still not over yet.

  • Jamboy

    Show us a miracle God..

  • Jamboy

    God; please help us a Libs Maj.

  • Darren

    Just thought I would drop by and see what Glen has to say now…

  • jim

    Harper destroyed. Justice has been delivered. Now we need to hold Trudeau to his promises. Canada will move forward and grow no matter who we have in ‘power. God Bless Canada and God Bless PM Trudeau. Now all of you petulant CONS kiss Liberal ass. Let us unitw and move Canada forward. Unlike Harper who only wanted to divide and conquer.

  • AHA

    I wouldn’t call 32% of the vote and 102 seats ‘destroyed’, in fact CPC significantly stronger position than most main oppositions have started new Parliaments in, in recent times.

    Harper resigned, yes. Destroyed, wishful thinking.

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