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We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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EKOS Seat Projection

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn and Graham Pressey, who were the principal investigators in creating this seat forecast.

[Ottawa – October 19, 2015] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with the nearly 130,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates.

Before digging into the numbers, we would like to provide two very important caveats:

  1. Our model assumes that our final numbers are accurate. There were a lot of last minute movements, particularly in Quebec. For example, our final poll had the Liberals at 36 points. However, the Liberals were clearly on an upward trend at the time our final poll was conducted and they could easily find themselves a few points higher this evening. With the large number of three- and four-way races in this country, a difference of one or two points could easily translate to a difference of 10 or 20 seats.
  2. There are a lot of close calls in Quebec. Many Quebec ridings are tight four-way races, meaning that many of these seats will be won with less than 30 per cent of the vote. With margins this thin, there is a very wide margin for error in terms of final seat tally. Also, there were a lot of late movements in the province, including a last minute surge in support for the Bloc Québécois.

Our final projected seat tallies are as follows:

LIBERAL

CONSERVATIVE

NDP

BQ

GREEN

151

116

54

16

1

Notable potential losses:

At this stage, we believe that all five major party leaders are positioned to win their home ridings (although Gilles Duceppe faces a very tight race in his riding of Laurier—Sainte-Marie). There are, however, a number of incumbents who are not likely to win their seats this evening. Some of these notable losses include:

Conservative Party:

  • Bernard Valcourt, Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development, Madawaska — Restigouche, MB
  • Chris Alexander, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, Ajax, ON
  • Gail Shea, Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, Egmont, PEI
  • Greg Rickford, Minister of Natural Resources, Kenora, ON
  • Joe Oliver, Minister of Finance, Eglinton—Lawrence, ON
  • Julian Fantino, Minister of National Defence, Vaughan—Woodbridge, ON
  • Keith Ashfield, Fredericton, NB
  • Leona Aglukkaq, Minister of the Environment, Nunavut
  • Paul Calandra, Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Markham—Stouffville, ON

New Democratic Party:

  • Françoise Boivin, Gatineau, QC
  • John Rafferty, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON
  • Maria Mourani, Ahuntsic-Cartierville, QC
  • Megan Leslie, Halifax, NS
  • Nycole Turmel, Hull—Aylmer, QC
  • Pat Martin, Winnipeg Centre, MB
  • Peter Stoffer, Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook, NS
  • Peggy Nash, Parkdale—High Park, ON

Other:

  • Bruce Hyer (GP), Thunder Bay—Superior North, ON
  • Jean-François Fortin (SD), Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia, QC
  • Scott Andrews (Independent), Avalon, NL

Riding-by-riding forecasts:

Newfoundland and Labrador

FORECAST

Avalon

LIBERAL

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity

LIBERAL

Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame

LIBERAL

Labrador

LIBERAL

Long Range Mountains

LIBERAL

St. John’s East

NDP

St. John’s South—Mount Pearl

LIBERAL

Prince Edward Island

FORECAST

Cardigan

LIBERAL

Charlottetown

LIBERAL

Egmont

LIBERAL

Malpeque

LIBERAL

Nova Scotia

FORECAST

Cape Breton—Canso

LIBERAL

Central Nova

LIBERAL

Cumberland—Colchester

LIBERAL

Dartmouth—Cole Harbour

LIBERAL

Halifax

LIBERAL

Halifax West

LIBERAL

Kings—Hants

LIBERAL

Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook

LIBERAL

South Shore—St. Margarets

LIBERAL

Sydney—Victoria

LIBERAL

West Nova

LIBERAL

New Brunswick

FORECAST

Acadie—Bathurst

LIBERAL

Beauséjour

LIBERAL

Fredericton

LIBERAL

Fundy Royal

CONSERVATIVE

Madawaska—Restigouche

LIBERAL

Miramichi—Grand Lake

LIBERAL

Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe

LIBERAL

New Brunswick Southwest

CONSERVATIVE

Saint John—Rothesay

LIBERAL

Tobique—Mactaquac

LIBERAL

Quebec

FORECAST

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

NDP

Abitibi—Témiscamingue

NDP

Ahuntsic-Cartierville

LIBERAL

Alfred-Pellan

LIBERAL

Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation

LIBERAL

Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia

LIBERAL

Beauce

CONSERVATIVE

Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d’Orléans–Charlevoix

CONSERVATIVE

Beauport—Limoilou

CONSERVATIVE

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel

BQ

Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis

CONSERVATIVE

Beloeil—Chambly

BQ

Berthier—Maskinongé

NDP

Bourassa

LIBERAL

Brome—Missisquoi

LIBERAL

Brossard—Saint-Lambert

LIBERAL

Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles

CONSERVATIVE

Châteauguay—Lacolle

BQ

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

NDP

Compton—Stanstead

NDP

Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle

LIBERAL

Drummond

NDP

Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

LIBERAL

Gatineau

LIBERAL

Hochelaga

NDP

Honoré-Mercier

LIBERAL

Hull—Aylmer

LIBERAL

Joliette

BQ

Jonquière

NDP

La Pointe-de-l’Île

NDP

La Prairie

BQ

Lac-Saint-Jean

CONSERVATIVE

Lac-Saint-Louis

LIBERAL

LaSalle–Émard–Verdun

LIBERAL

Laurentides—Labelle

BQ

Laurier—Sainte-Marie

BQ

Laval—Les Îles

LIBERAL

Lévis—Lotbinière

CONSERVATIVE

Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne

BQ

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

BQ

Louis-Hébert

CONSERVATIVE

Louis-Saint-Laurent

CONSERVATIVE

Manicouagan

NDP

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LIBERAL

Mégantic—L’Érable

CONSERVATIVE

Mirabel

BQ

Montarville

BQ

Montcalm

BQ

Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup

CONSERVATIVE

Mount Royal

LIBERAL

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount

LIBERAL

Outremont

NDP

Papineau

LIBERAL

Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères

BQ

Pierrefonds—Dollard

LIBERAL

Pontiac

LIBERAL

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

CONSERVATIVE

Québec

NDP

Repentigny

BQ

Richmond—Arthabaska

CONSERVATIVE

Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques

NDP

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

NDP

Rivière-du-Nord

BQ

Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

NDP

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot

NDP

Saint-Jean

NDP

Saint-Laurent

LIBERAL

Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

LIBERAL

Saint-Maurice—Champlain

LIBERAL

Salaberry—Suroît

BQ

Shefford

NDP

Sherbrooke

NDP

Terrebonne

NDP

Thérèse-De Blainville

NDP

Trois-Rivières

NDP

Vaudreuil—Soulanges

LIBERAL

Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs

LIBERAL

Vimy

LIBERAL

Ontario

FORECAST

Ajax

LIBERAL

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing

NDP

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

LIBERAL

Barrie—Innisfil

LIBERAL

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

LIBERAL

Bay of Quinte

LIBERAL

Beaches—East York

LIBERAL

Brampton Centre

LIBERAL

Brampton East

LIBERAL

Brampton North

LIBERAL

Brampton South

LIBERAL

Brampton West

LIBERAL

Brantford–Brant

LIBERAL

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

CONSERVATIVE

Burlington

CONSERVATIVE

Cambridge

LIBERAL

Carleton

CONSERVATIVE

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

CONSERVATIVE

Davenport

LIBERAL

Don Valley East

LIBERAL

Don Valley North

LIBERAL

Don Valley West

LIBERAL

Dufferin—Caledon

CONSERVATIVE

Durham

LIBERAL

Eglinton—Lawrence

LIBERAL

Elgin—Middlesex—London

CONSERVATIVE

Essex

CONSERVATIVE

Etobicoke Centre

LIBERAL

Etobicoke North

LIBERAL

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

LIBERAL

Flamborough—Glanbrook

CONSERVATIVE

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

LIBERAL

Guelph

LIBERAL

Haldimand—Norfolk

CONSERVATIVE

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

CONSERVATIVE

Hamilton Centre

NDP

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

NDP

Hamilton Mountain

LIBERAL

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LIBERAL

Hastings—Lennox and Addington

CONSERVATIVE

Humber River–Black Creek

LIBERAL

Huron—Bruce

LIBERAL

Kanata—Carleton

LIBERAL

Kenora

NDP

King—Vaughan

LIBERAL

Kingston and the Islands

LIBERAL

Kitchener Centre

LIBERAL

Kitchener South—Hespeler

LIBERAL

Kitchener—Conestoga

LIBERAL

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

CONSERVATIVE

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

CONSERVATIVE

Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

CONSERVATIVE

London North Centre

LIBERAL

London West

LIBERAL

London—Fanshawe

NDP

Markham—Stouffville

LIBERAL

Markham—Thornhill

LIBERAL

Markham—Unionville

LIBERAL

Milton

CONSERVATIVE

Mississauga Centre

LIBERAL

Mississauga East–Cooksville

LIBERAL

Mississauga—Erin Mills

LIBERAL

Mississauga—Lakeshore

LIBERAL

Mississauga—Malton

LIBERAL

Mississauga—Streetsville

LIBERAL

Nepean

LIBERAL

Newmarket—Aurora

LIBERAL

Niagara Centre

NDP

Niagara Falls

CONSERVATIVE

Niagara West

CONSERVATIVE

Nickel Belt

NDP

Nipissing—Timiskaming

LIBERAL

Northumberland–Peterborough South

LIBERAL

Oakville

LIBERAL

Oakville North—Burlington

LIBERAL

Orléans

LIBERAL

Oshawa

NDP

Ottawa Centre

NDP

Ottawa South

LIBERAL

Ottawa West—Nepean

LIBERAL

Ottawa—Vanier

LIBERAL

Oxford

CONSERVATIVE

Parkdale—High Park

LIBERAL

Parry Sound—Muskoka

CONSERVATIVE

Perth—Wellington

CONSERVATIVE

Peterborough–Kawartha

LIBERAL

Pickering—Uxbridge

LIBERAL

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

CONSERVATIVE

Richmond Hill

LIBERAL

Sarnia—Lambton

CONSERVATIVE

Sault Ste. Marie

LIBERAL

Scarborough Centre

LIBERAL

Scarborough North

LIBERAL

Scarborough Southwest

LIBERAL

Scarborough—Agincourt

LIBERAL

Scarborough—Guildwood

LIBERAL

Scarborough—Rouge Park

LIBERAL

Simcoe North

CONSERVATIVE

Simcoe—Grey

CONSERVATIVE

Spadina—Fort York

LIBERAL

St. Catharines

LIBERAL

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

CONSERVATIVE

Sudbury

LIBERAL

Thornhill

CONSERVATIVE

Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LIBERAL

Thunder Bay—Superior North

LIBERAL

Timmins—James Bay

NDP

Toronto Centre

LIBERAL

Toronto–St. Paul’s

LIBERAL

Toronto—Danforth

NDP

University—Rosedale

LIBERAL

Vaughan—Woodbridge

LIBERAL

Waterloo

LIBERAL

Wellington—Halton Hills

CONSERVATIVE

Whitby

LIBERAL

Willowdale

LIBERAL

Windsor West

NDP

Windsor—Tecumseh

NDP

York Centre

CONSERVATIVE

York South—Weston

LIBERAL

York—Simcoe

CONSERVATIVE

Manitoba

FORECAST

Brandon—Souris

CONSERVATIVE

Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley

CONSERVATIVE

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

NDP

Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa

CONSERVATIVE

Elmwood—Transcona

CONSERVATIVE

Kildonan—St. Paul

CONSERVATIVE

Portage—Lisgar

CONSERVATIVE

Provencher

CONSERVATIVE

Saint Boniface—Saint Vital

LIBERAL

Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman

CONSERVATIVE

Winnipeg Centre

LIBERAL

Winnipeg North

LIBERAL

Winnipeg South

LIBERAL

Winnipeg South Centre

LIBERAL

Saskatchewan

FORECAST

Battlefords—Lloydminster

CONSERVATIVE

Cypress Hills—Grasslands

CONSERVATIVE

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

CONSERVATIVE

Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek

CONSERVATIVE

Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

CONSERVATIVE

Prince Albert

CONSERVATIVE

Regina—Lewvan

NDP

Regina—Qu’Appelle

CONSERVATIVE

Regina—Wascana

LIBERAL

Saskatoon—Grasswood

CONSERVATIVE

Saskatoon—University

CONSERVATIVE

Saskatoon West

NDP

Souris—Moose Mountain

CONSERVATIVE

Yorkton—Melville

CONSERVATIVE


Alberta

FORECAST

Banff—Airdrie

CONSERVATIVE

Battle River—Crowfoot

CONSERVATIVE

Bow River

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Centre

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Confederation

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Forest Lawn

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Heritage

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Midnapore

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Nose Hill

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Rocky Ridge

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Shepard

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Signal Hill

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Skyview

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Centre

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Griesbach

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Manning

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Mill Woods

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Riverbend

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Strathcona

NDP

Edmonton West

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton—Wetaskiwin

CONSERVATIVE

Foothills

CONSERVATIVE

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

CONSERVATIVE

Grande Prairie–Mackenzie

CONSERVATIVE

Lakeland

CONSERVATIVE

Lethbridge

CONSERVATIVE

Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner

CONSERVATIVE

Peace River—Westlock

CONSERVATIVE

Red Deer—Mountain View

CONSERVATIVE

Red Deer–Lacombe

CONSERVATIVE

St. Albert—Edmonton

CONSERVATIVE

Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan

CONSERVATIVE

Sturgeon River–Parkland

CONSERVATIVE

Yellowhead

CONSERVATIVE

British Columbia

FORECAST

Abbotsford

CONSERVATIVE

Burnaby North—Seymour

LIBERAL

Burnaby South

NDP

Cariboo—Prince George

CONSERVATIVE

Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola

CONSERVATIVE

Chilliwack—Hope

CONSERVATIVE

Cloverdale—Langley City

CONSERVATIVE

Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam

CONSERVATIVE

Courtenay—Alberni

NDP

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

NDP

Delta

CONSERVATIVE

Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke

NDP

Fleetwood—Port Kells

CONSERVATIVE

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo

CONSERVATIVE

Kelowna—Lake Country

CONSERVATIVE

Kootenay—Columbia

CONSERVATIVE

Langley—Aldergrove

CONSERVATIVE

Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon

CONSERVATIVE

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

NDP

New Westminster—Burnaby

NDP

North Island–Powell River

NDP

North Okanagan—Shuswap

CONSERVATIVE

North Vancouver

LIBERAL

Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

CONSERVATIVE

Port Moody—Coquitlam

CONSERVATIVE

Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies

CONSERVATIVE

Richmond Centre

CONSERVATIVE

Saanich—Gulf Islands

GREEN

Skeena—Bulkley Valley

NDP

South Okanagan—West Kootenay

NDP

South Surrey—White Rock

CONSERVATIVE

Steveston—Richmond East

CONSERVATIVE

Surrey Centre

NDP

Surrey—Newton

LIBERAL

Vancouver Centre

LIBERAL

Vancouver East

NDP

Vancouver Granville

LIBERAL

Vancouver Kingsway

NDP

Vancouver Quadra

LIBERAL

Vancouver South

LIBERAL

Victoria

NDP

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

LIBERAL

Territories

FORECAST

Yukon

LIBERAL

Northwest Territories

NDP

Nunavut

LIBERAL

Click here for a PDF version of this report: Seat Projection (October 19, 2015)

33 comments to EKOS Seat Projection

  • Nadezhda Krupskaya

    More herding of the sheeple into the Liberal camp.

  • John Grant

    It would be interesting to see this table again tomorrow with two additional columns, one showing the actual winning party in each riding and the other showing its plurality over the party you selected, if any

  • mozzaikh

    I just voted rifht now and I saw a kinf of relative turn out. Thigs not boding well vote Liberals for now. May be around 6 p.m. people will come in flow to vote. But I guess the nigth will be very long.

  • Michael Crowell

    I would bet 90% of Liberals voters have not read one paragraph of the Liberal Platform. What a bunch of gobbledygook. Nothing more than feel good statements. People are sure in for a surprise with the pension splitting. Income splitting gone. Hazel fooled a lot of people.

  • Mak Merton

    Yep, we left the hogs with the Harperites.

  • dean sherratt

    Of all the results, the most pitiable would seem to be the election of 16 BQ MPs, the party literally dragged cold and damp out of its grave.

  • JNG

    1. Kitchener-Conestoga -> Liberal? Are you crazy? Everywhere you look it is wall to wall Harold Albrecht signs (Conservative). Harold is loved in this riding and much of it is rural. Likewise 2. Kitchener South – Hespeler and 3, Cambridge are also definitely going Conservative.

    4. Waterloo and 5. Kitchener Centre are overwhelmingly going to go Liberal so someone has gotten lazy / sloppy and projected that to these other 3 nearby ridings. Waterloo is full of big city Liberal voters and Kitchener Centre has a Conservative MP that is very unlikeable.

    Ekos says all 5 are of these ridings are going Liberal. I live in this area and say that 3 are going Conservative.

  • Jeremy

    While I predicted a Liberal majority in the 13th (182), the EKOS seat predictions really do not gel with their polling stats … even accounting for the late surge to the Liberals they picked up on Sunday.

    Where do these sudden seat predictions arise from? They are even higher than the 308.com seat tally and it is an aggregator site with a higher Liberal vote than EKOS. I can’t see how a 35.8% vote translates into 151 seats – especially given the relative ‘inefficiency’ of the Liberal vote.

  • Michael Crowell

    So sad we don’t have any objective media left in this Country.

  • TIMADENS

    Please let us wait for the next 3 hours before we know who gets elected but personally I am still rooting for Conservative.

    Historically, Liberal government has NEVER be prudent financially, and the financial handling of finances in the province of Ontario is very illustrative.

    I could remember vividly how the seat projections were in favor of Wildrose Party in the 2 previous elections in Alberta and it was on record that the provincial Conservative party won the election in landslide. Without doubt, the electorates that voted for the NDP government in the last election have started having a rethink.

    The present premier in Alberta, Ms. Rachel Notley, made a lot of unattainable promises during her campaign. It would be noted that the Premier has been in office for over 5 months, (I stand to be corrected on this) and the only thing she had been able to do was increasing the minimum wage that was uncalled for bearing in mind that only less than 2% of the population make less than the minimum wage. Incidentally, we should be able to draw a parallel between her promises and Trudeau’s; ultimately, both promises will end up being another failed promises to sway most unintelligent voters.

    Forever Conservative!!!

  • Jamboy

    Oh; GOD please help us in this Election.

    A liberal Government is the worst thing that can happen to Canada at this time.

    God please hear my cry!!

    Poll will be closing in a few hours, across this great nation and I know that you have listened to my cry!!

    The CPC approach to the Economy is much better than Libs, so God please help us.

    In jesus name we pray!!

    Amen

  • Dave

    Another crazy prediction above is St. Catharines, ON going Liberal. Holy cow there is a conservative (Rick Dykstra) sign in every other lawn in the city, and he won with almost 50% last time out. I think the seat numbers in this prediction are way too highly skewed and though the Libs may still get the most, it’s not going to be with that margin. I can’t believe Ontario skewing Liberal with the decade of Liberal corruption provincially. Good Lord!!

  • Bud

    To me the story of this election is that Canadians were voting against the incumbents. When the writ was dropped, it was all NDP because they had the best chance. Then Quebec waffled with the niqab and all, and the rest of the country said, “ok, we will go with the liberals then”.

    But voting against something is far from inspiring. And that is because all of our options, to be eloquent here, sucked. We truly had a depressing choice this time round. Virulently sucky or just pathetically sucky? Okay, just pathetically sucky then …

    I really hope that people hold the liberals to their talk of electoral reform. If it were not for our god-forsaken, fun house of mirrors, effed up, system of voter distortion, we would not be in this miserable boat of having to choose what we do not want, instead of choosing what we do. A more proportional system is what I need for inspiration.

    • Jeremy

      I disagree. Perhaps initially people wanted to vote against Harper but Trudeau has arguably given people something to vote for — a vision of Canada that is positive and inclusive — hopefully free of the politics of fear and division. I get that that might not be your view of things … but for about 70% of the population it appears to be.

  • Jeremy

    At the risk of inflammation conservative sentiments on this board . . Can i just say that, for me, it is like canada has emerged from some awful darkness tonight. I welcome a progressive government that is positive and hopefully will govern for all Canadians. While conservatives may feel this is a bad dream … i dare say that for the majority of progressive minded Canadians it is as if we have awoken from a bad dream.

    Cheers

  • John Smith

    Am I allowed to say that over 60% of Canadians didnt want Turdeau. I bet he wont reform the system now that Chretien ooops I mean Turdeau is calling the shots. Hated his father and I dont have much faith in his son either.

    • Bud

      You sure are! Doesn’t feel right, does it? Because it is not. A more proportional electoral system is needed, the one we’ve got distorts and misrepresents the will of the people.

      But it wouldn’t be fair to equate the current situation with the past 9 and a half years or so. It is a very different thing to be on one end of the spectrum and have less than 40% of the popular vote while having more than 50% of the seats. It is quite another to be closer to the middle of the spectrum and be in that situation. In the first situation, the 60+% are all to one side of the false majority. In the latter situation, the 60+% are split on either side of the false majority.

  • Jean-Marie Basque

    Your prediction would have me mislead for months! I’ll remember!

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