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Liberals Now Have Slight Lead

[Ottawa – October 8, 2015] The Liberals have been on a sustained rise for nearly a week and they now hold a statistically insignificant lead. At 34.1 points, the party is enjoying its highest support levels since February. The Conservatives are close behind at 32.5 points, while the NDP remains mired in the low 20s.

The most notable regional shifts are Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals have moved into a clear lead in Ontario where the NDP seem to be fading. In Quebec, the Liberals are clearly on the rise. The Conservatives continue to do well, particularly outside of Montreal and Western Quebec. The NDP are still a potent but diminished force but might benefit if the Bloc vote collapses (which it appears to be doing). The three parties are in a statistical tie in what has become an extremely unpredictable race. However, those focused on the daily numbers need to understand that the Quebec results carry a five-point margin of error and the key is the longer-term trends, not the day-to-day results.

The key demographic shifts have been a reconsolidation of the 2011 Conservative constituency. The university vote has shifted decisively back to the Liberals while the Conservatives retain a firm grip on the college and high school educated.

In a race as tight as this one, the variability of outcomes is very wide and the exact outcome will ultimately be determined who is actually going to show up on October 19th. The Conservatives have a huge advantage with seniors, a group that consistently and reliably votes in large numbers. The Liberal Party, meanwhile, enjoys a similar advantage with university graduates. The NDP and Green Party, however, both find their support focused among youth and their biggest challenge come Election Day will be ensuring that their supporters actually show up and vote.

An important component of turnout is the issue of cellphone-only households. As a growing number of households cut their landlines, it is critical that we understand how voter behaviour varies by phone type. In 2011, cellphone-only citizens shared two characteristic: 1.) lower tendency to select the Conservatives; and 2.) lower tendency to vote. These two factors coalesced to produce a prediction error. Indeed, those firms that invested the resources necessary to reach those with cellphones were effectively penalized for having better population coverage. These patterns persist, but cellphone-only voters now make up a much larger share of the electorate than in 2011.

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Methodology:

This study involved a blended sample collected using two separate methodologies: Computer Assisted Live Interviews (CATI) and EKOS’ proprietary High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are October 5-7, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,753 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (1,215 by HD-IVR, 538 by live interviewer). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here for the full report: Full Report (October 8, 2015)

15 comments to Liberals Now Have Slight Lead

  • Graham

    Hmm.

    Interesting headlines the last two days

    Yesterday with the Conservatives up 34 to 32 it was “After 20-Day Lead, Conservatives Now Find Themselves in a Statistical Tie”

    Today with the Liberals in the lead 34 to 32 even though the parties are still statistically tied, it’s “Liberals Now Have Slight Lead”

  • Bhuiya kasem

    Go ahead Liberals. ..go for real change

  • Albert Hurd

    Most interesting is the ramping up of negative stories about Conservatives, particularly re Harper, by CTV News, especially Robert Fyfe, as the election gets closer. Fyfe has been searching for such negative stories for some time, and keeps a file on such stories to bring up at appropriate times to negatively affect the Conservative party. The polls showing Liberal gains is what he is after, as Harper has not given Fyfe the time of day for some time. The CTV show Question Period has been run by Fyfe and Oliver as an anti-Conservative program all year. The one reporter who was at least neutral to all this has, suddenly, been absent from the show. Perhaps too neutral for Fyfe’s sake. Watch as more negative reporting comes out from CTV as the last few days remain in this election. The CTV group show really be wearing their RED handkerchiefs in their pockets. We do know where their leanings are, and they love the polls showing RED gains. And Power Play is not far behind.

  • Larry Maheu

    I find it difficult to accept that the voters would turn over a good economy, with a promise of a great economy, to Trudeau.
    It would be sad if those voters found themselves worse off than they think they are now.
    Prime Minister Harper deserves better.

    • John Smith

      Canada deserves better than Harper. Take off your blue-coloured glasses to see that our economy is not good. Harper has been a disaster and needs to go.

      It would be sad if Harper was still PM after Oct 19th.

    • Mike

      That good economy, that Harper constantly touts with every question asked of him, is a pathetic economy with a promise of more of the same.

      You actually believe all the mistruths that Harper constantly spouts. Harper is a legend in his own mind.

  • Vance

    Larry, lol, good economy? Our economy is in the shitter. Harper, the amazing economic steward has the worst economic record of any prime minister by miles since the second world war. Poor job growth, poor GDP growth, terrible spending habits, you name it. The myth of Harper bringing Canada prosperity is a load of garbage.

  • Michael

    Harper’s strategy of calling the election early to give them a huge spending advantage, at an additional $50 million dollar cost to taxpayers, has not worked. They were faced with the Duffy trial for weeks, then the refugee issue and a technical recession.

    Mulcar shot himself in the foot with a lead issue of $15 day did not work with his base in Quebec, saying he was going to “mop the floor with Trudeau” in the debates and the insanity of a balanced budget killed him.

    Trudeau went in with no published plan and everyone did not expect much. Running from behind he listened to the others and released better more believable plans. Taking daily questions from the press sharpened him for the debates. It should not be a big surprise that he is winning.

  • brian James

    It is about time Canadians realize that Harperman is an inept leader who will tell every lie possible, destroy the economic, not to mention destroy what it is to be Canadian and use G. W. Bush fear campaign to get votes. The best possible choice for Canada is Trudeau = positive, cares about Canadians and has a positive economic plan. That is why he is rising in the polls and will continue rising. What a welcome relief – Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada.

  • Rosaire Martin

    Since the first days of the campaing I had expected to vote for the NDP. I live in Laval, Quebec but I was born in New Brunswick. The thing I want the most is to get rid of that dictator that divides Canada to stay in power and who is surrounded by dishonest people. He has been working for one province only and look at the canadian economy which is crumbling down. With the results I see in the latest polls I guess it is for Liberals I am going to vote. I am glad to be able to come back to the Liberal party. Justin Trudeau has done a good job during the campaing and he is a guy which is well suited to do a great job for Canada in the years to come.

  • John Marino

    After being pounded by negative Conservative ads for the past year, and with this divisive platform they are now pushing, I simply can’t vote for Harper (though I did in the last election). Can’t vote for Angry Tom either. The negative campaigning is really pissing me off. I think Trudeau has run a great campaign and effectively promoted a positive future. I can’t speak for others, but for me those negative ads simply had me looking really hard at Trudeau’s performance and I’ve concluded that Justin is quite ready, and Stephen Harper? : He’s Just Not Worthy.

  • Rondo Normal

    I prefer Trudeau over Harper, as I am an “Anybody But Conservative” voter. Unfortunately Trudeau will not be “real change”, he will be a return to the old status quo. If we want real change (REAL CHANGE) , we need to elect an NDP or Green Government. Doesn’t look good this time around but at least if we get rid of Harper, we have a chance in another four years. Elect Harper and this could be our last election. He’s too addicted to power!

  • Tara

    I agree Harper has had long enough, it is time for positive change. Enough of the fear mongering and anger.
    “Justin time”. Mr. Trudeau

  • Luc R. Bouchard D.C. FICC

    Ave … The Right Honorable Stephen Harper has had long enough …
    makes me laugh … How long did the Right Honorable
    P.E. Trudeau and Jean Chrétien and the Liberals ran the
    country ?
    … and messed it up !!!
    With Monsieur Trudeau in power … the popularity of the
    PQ will go up …
    Not too good for our great great country …
    Does the ROC realize that three of the four Chefs are
    from Qc ?
    For a united country we are better off with a Prime
    Minister from outside of Qc … and the Right Honorable
    Stephen Harper … is from Alberta … and the PCC will
    double + its representation on October 19 … ROC must
    take this into consideration …

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