LIBERALS OPENING UP DAYLIGHT?
[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] With less than 24 hours to go until the polls open, it appears as though vote intentions are relatively fixed, although the Liberals may be opening up a bit of headroom. At 34.3 points, the Liberals hold a statistically insignificant lead over the Conservatives, who are at 32.6 per cent. The NDP is at 21 points and there are no signs of any last minute shifts.
Quebec has transitioned into an unclear four-way race. With just a seven-point spread separating the NDP, the Bloc, the Liberals, and the Conservatives, there are no guarantees as to what will happen tomorrow. We can certify the Liberals’ Ontario lead as significant and stable and providing a very significant seat premium for them here. British Columbia, as always, remains confusing to the pollster and we see an unusual Conservative lead (which may well be a random artefact).
It is also worth noting that the Conservatives’ advantage with seniors has evaporated. We would express some scepticism on this, although it is entirely possible that the Liberals have pulled into a tie with the Conservatives here, as the gap has narrowed significantly over the past week. If this shift is indeed real, this would be very positive news for the Liberals in terms of turnout.
We’ll be putting out a final set of numbers later this evening. We’re weighing and balancing a few things in preparing for our final release. These include the final day numbers, as well as some modest mode effects across live interviewer and IVR. We will make our final prediction later today.
This study involved a blended sample collected using two separate methodologies: Computer Assisted Live Interviews (CATI) and EKOS’ proprietary High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.
The figures in this report are based on a two-day rolling sample. Each day, a new day’s worth of interviewing is added and the oldest day is dropped. The field dates for this survey are October 16-17, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,621 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (1,158 by HD-IVR, 463 by live interviewer). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here for the full report: Full Report (October 18, 2015)