[Ottawa – July 21, 2016] Canada’s political landscape appears locked in place as Canadians begin turning their attention to their cabins and barbeques. The Liberals are holding steady at 46 points, territory they have enjoyed for six consecutive polls stretching back to December. These results represent an interesting contrast to the Conservatives who, according to our polls, broke the 40-point mark only twice in their nearly ten years in office (once in 2008 and again in 2009). The NDP, which earlier this year seemed in danger of falling into fourth place behind the Green Party, has recovered somewhat. At 15 points, the party has a long way to go before becoming a serious contender for power, but they seem to have staved off political oblivion for the time being.
What is remarkable about the Liberal Party’s support is its lack of demographic strongholds. Conservatives rely more heavily on men and seniors and the NDP receives a disproportionate amount of its support from women and younger Canadians. The Liberals, however, enjoy steady support across all gender and age cohorts.
The Liberals would once again sweep Atlantic Canada if an impromptu election was held tomorrow, and they hold a commanding lead in both Quebec and Ontario, Canada’s seat cash cow. The Conservatives continue to dominate Alberta and Saskatchewan (although the small sample size in the latter province precludes any kind of meaningful analysis here). The NDP trails the Liberals in British Columbia, but otherwise does quite well here.
The Liberals do very well with college graduates (at least by their own historical standards) and they control more than half of the university vote. Indeed, if voting required a university diploma, it is likely that the Liberals would capture every seat east of Manitoba. The Conservatives, meanwhile, hold a slim lead among the high school educated.
This survey was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. We believe this to be the only probability-based online panel in Canada
While panellists are randomly recruited, this survey was conducted online only, meaning that it excludes the roughly one in six Canadians who either can not or will not respond to surveys online. Results should therefore be considered representative of Canada’s online population. The field dates for this survey are July 8-14, 2016. In total, a random sample of 1,003 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here for the full report: Full Report (July 21, 2016)