GOVERNMENT IS BACK
[Ottawa – October 24, 2016] The Liberals continue to defy the laws of political gravity. With the party at a staggering 47 points, the protracted honeymoon clearly signals something deeper than mere regime change. At 26 points, the Conservatives are still very much hanging around. While this may not seem terribly impressive on the surface, they retain a solid base, which is especially impressive given that they are operating under an interim leader. The NDP, however, looks to be in deep trouble – they have gone from clear contenders for government to being on the cusp of not securing official party status. The Green Party is looking good, but their future is ultimately connected to the debate over electoral reform and proportional representation.
Remarkably, the large demographic and regional fissures have diminished dramatically. The Liberal party enjoys relatively uniform support across age, gender, and educational boundaries. Notably, the party has surpassed the 50-point threshold with seniors, a mark that the Conservative Party has not been able to match in seven years. It is truly astonishing that this demographic, the erstwhile cornerstone of Conservative support, now sits decisively in the enemy camp. The Liberals also fare well across the country and lead everywhere except Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Outlook on direction of government has reached its highest level since we started tracking it nearly two decades ago, which is remarkable given the dismal economic outlook. Fully two-thirds of Canadians say the government is headed in the right direction. This high confidence is reflected in the stratospheric vote intention levels. A slightly lower proportion – 63 per cent – expresses similar views on the direction of the country itself. This somewhat lower figure on national direction probably reflects economic anxieties and, ultimately, the government’s challenge will be to turn the economy around and restore share prosperity and growth.
This survey was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. We believe this to be the only probability-based online panel in Canada
While panellists are randomly recruited, this survey was conducted online only, meaning that it excludes the roughly one in six Canadians who either can not or will not respond to surveys online. Results should therefore be considered representative of Canada’s online population. The field dates for this survey are October 12-18, 2016. In total, a random sample of 1,622 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here for the full report: Full Report (October 24, 2016)