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Ontario PCs Enjoy Clear Lead

ONTARIO LIBERALS IN 2ND AND NDP WELL BACK IN 3RD

[Ottawa – April 6, 2018] Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have a clear lead which would produce a majority it there were to be an election tomorrow. However, current polling does not provide the basis for a comfortable forecast of the next Ontario election; there isn’t an election tomorrow and the Ontario Liberals have shown surprising resilience in the last three provincial elections.

The Ontario Liberals have a daunting challenge in closing a 14-point gap, but the NDP find themselves mired at the same inauspicious levels they achieved in the last election. Without a major disruption, the NDP may serve only to split enough of the centre-left vote to assist a Doug Ford majority. This could, of course, change.

There is a huge gender gap in voter preference. Neither the Liberals nor the NDP have any strength with male voters. Doug Ford has a huge lead here. If the election was going to be based on women’s vote, it would be a highly competitive race between the PCs and Liberals. To have any chance of winning, the Ontario Liberals have to do considerably better with male voters.

The Ontario Liberal vote skews heavily to those with higher socioeconomic status. The PC vote is very strong among middle class voters and they have a huge lead with working class, as well as a modest lead with the poor. They also do much better with college and high school educated. This mirrors the populist constituency that propelled Donald Trump to victory in the United States. Doug Ford is also doing surprisingly well with younger voters, but they may not be highly engaged at this point.

The Tories lead across the province except in Toronto, where they are still in a statistical tie with the Liberals. Within Toronto, the Liberals are ahead in the central part of the city, while the PCs are ahead in the suburbs, which is the heart of “Fordnation”. The NDP doesn’t lead in any region, though they are a distant second place in Southwestern Ontario.

The Tories’ best regions are their heartlands of Eastern and Central Ontario and Southwestern Ontario, which is where they won a bulk of their seats in 2014. Of note, they also have large leads in the seat-rich outer Greater Toronto Area (i.e., outside of the city itself). This area of the province is key for any party to win in order to form government. The Tories also have a significant lead in Ottawa, another area the Tories haven’t won since last winning government.

Methodology:

This survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are March 20-April 5, 2018. In total, a random sub-sample of 1,067 residents of Ontario aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

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4 comments to Ontario PCs Enjoy Clear Lead

  • IM

    Interesting to see 22% of the “poor” category leaning towards the Green Party. Have they done anything in particular to appeal to this group?

  • stan hunter

    clear policy on affordable housing

  • Chris

    https://gpo.ca/vision/people/

    “People Powered Change

    Each of us has a role to play in building a strong Ontario. We are more than just taxpayers. We are individuals, family members, part of our community — we are citizens.

    Look around you, in your community, neighbourhood, town, city, region. In every place around our province, people are creating positive change making their communities stronger, more compassionate and sustainable.

    We watch as the big three entrenched parties fail to solve the challenges we face in Ontario each day. Their talk is about accountability to us as taxpayers, forgetting our shared desire as citizens to build a vibrant province where every person is given the opportunity to thrive.

    This province can and must do better. We are in a moment of transformative change – let’s seize that moment and make changes that will benefit us all now and for generations to come.”

  • Stefan Mochnacki

    This is pretty similar to what Thomas Piketty has found more generally in his recent paper, “Brahmin Left vs Merchant Right:
    Rising Inequality & the Changing Structure of Political Conflict
    (Evidence from France, Britain and the US, 1948-2017)”.(Easy enough to find on the Internet).

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