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Without Significant Changes, Doug Ford on Track for Majority Government

[Ottawa – June 1, 2018] As we enter the final week of the campaign, the Ontario NDP have started falling back, while the Ford-led Progressive Conservatives have opened up a clear, four-point lead. The Liberals are stuck at 19 points with no plausible path to victory.

Making matters worse for the NDP, the regional distribution of the party’s vote does not appear to be very seat-efficient. In particular, the PCs have a huge advantage in rural and suburban areas, which will yield a major seat efficiency advantage come Election Day. More troubling for the NDP, however, is their overrepresentation with the more economically vulnerable groups and younger voters, both of which have historically lower voting rates.

Nevertheless, there is still significant room for change. Indeed, the proportion of respondents who remain undecided is high at 10 points, which is uncommonly high for such a late stage of an election campaign. In any case, without a significant disruption, Doug Ford is now ticketed to be Premier with a commanding majority.

Methodology:

This survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The figures in this report are based on a three-day rolling sample. Each day, a new day’s worth of interviewing is added and the oldest day is dropped. The field dates for this survey are May 29-31, 2018. In total, a random sub-sample of 990 residents of Ontario aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Please click here for the full report.

13 comments to Without Significant Changes, Doug Ford on Track for Majority Government

  • Ron Jamula

    Would be interesting to know what ridings are included in Southwest, Hamilton Niagara, and grand river valley. Numbers don’t make sense in hamilton, Niagara. This is strong NDP territory depending on how you divide ridings.

    • Curtis

      Well, when you consider how high the margins of error are on those particular regions, they’re so high that the regional breakdown EKOS is providing is basically irrelevant. It’s irresponsible for them to not raise a red flag about that in the short write-up here too. Brutal.

  • Jay

    God forbid Ontario if Ford gets in.

  • Robert Cross

    NDPs association with Ontario Cornerstone Leadership Corporation is quite bothering, even though Horvath denies any financial ties. Horvath also mentioned that she will not introduce back to work legislation in case strikes go on.

    If NDP wins, I will not expect any long-running strikes from the public sector unions associated with Cornerstone, as the NDP may just give in to their demands.

    That would be a long term catastrophe for the government, and for the people who pay the taxes.

  • David Gibbons

    Doug Ford like all leaders has his shortcoming but frankly compared the tax and spend Premier Wynne ,and her sidekick Horwath, I believe he will balance the budget and start the neccessary but sometime unpopular task of paying down our debit. His platform is much like the former leaders which was well received throughout Ontario.

    I understand and accept that some people are concerned about potential cuts to front line employees in health and education but Mike Harris HE IS NOT. You can reduce the work force in a reasonable and thoughtful manner like not filling positions from retired employees.

    I also believe that their are efficiencies in the government that can be found. The auditor General flagged over 1B in last year’s annual report.

    Give him a chance and judge him on his record as opposed to what happened under his brother’s watch in Toronto.

    D

  • If Doug Ford Thinks hes going to Be Elected as the Premier of Ontario it seems to me more the NDP Are Almost More then Likely
    to form a Majority Government and let only Hope that they Do and
    Hopefully we will see No More of the Liberal and PC Arrogance anymore Longer at Queens Park lets Now see that the NDP Will do
    a lot more Better Job. Now with all that been said I Just wonder
    if Rachel Notley will Resign as Premier of ALberta and as forScott Moe to Resign as Premier of Saskatchewan. I Cant Imagine Premier John Horgan Being at the 1st Ministers Conference with Rachel Notley sitting Beside Him. Thank you.

    David W Glavin Burnaby BC

  • mike mclean

    Unless the total numbers contacted including those who responded is included, polls like this are virtually meaningless. Telephone response rates can be as low as 10 percent…

  • Jon Ramula

    No they make sense, only Hamilton and Welland are strong NDP territory…

  • Yatti420

    It’s Over.. NDP were really never even close.. This is just sample bias to prop up the NDP.. There were truly never even close. Ford Majority. 25 seats. Calling it now!

  • Ted Green

    Are there any polls riding by riding? I want to know what the polls show specifically for my own riding.

  • frank, if the ndp are running at 50% across toronto, why wouldn’t there be a clean sweep from red—>orange over that 40 seat liberal base (excluding that thorny thornhill)? those numbers make it look like the liberals and ndp have switched places in the 416, and the ndp is going to clean sweep toronto. and, if that is the case, it’s hard to draw your conclusion of a pc majority from your data. we can see where the ndp are winning seats, and we can see where the pcs are holding their base. but, where are the pcs winning seats for their supposed majority?

    i understand the argument that the ndp vote is less likely to actually get out. but, that, itself, doesn’t make the pcs competitive in toronto – and your numbers suggest that they simply aren’t.

  • Carol Throop

    It is really too soon to predict anything. I think the NDP will do well in most of Ontario. Hopefully if Ford wins, it will be a minority!

  • Bonnie Turner

    how can you trust a poll that calls anything under 50% a majority. G….anyone of the others joining with NDP gives an easy win. NDP/Green are so similiar it is reasonable.

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