About EKOS Politics

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EKOS 2019 Seat Projection

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.

[Ottawa – October 21, 2019] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with more than 100,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates.

Our final projected seat tallies are as follows:

LPC

CPC

NDP

BQ

GP

PPC

IND

158

117

31

28

3

0

1

Riding-by-riding forecasts:

Newfoundland and Labrador

FORECAST

Avalon

LIBERAL

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity

LIBERAL

Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame

LIBERAL

Labrador

LIBERAL

Long Range Mountains

LIBERAL

St. John’s East

NDP

St. John’s South—Mount Pearl

LIBERAL

Prince Edward Island

FORECAST

Cardigan

LIBERAL

Charlottetown

LIBERAL

Egmont

LIBERAL

Malpeque

LIBERAL

Nova Scotia

FORECAST

Cape Breton—Canso

LIBERAL

Central Nova

LIBERAL

Cumberland—Colchester

LIBERAL

Dartmouth—Cole Harbour

LIBERAL

Halifax

LIBERAL

Halifax West

LIBERAL

Kings—Hants

LIBERAL

Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook

LIBERAL

South Shore—St. Margarets

LIBERAL

Sydney—Victoria

LIBERAL

West Nova

LIBERAL

New Brunswick

FORECAST

Acadie—Bathurst

LIBERAL

Beauséjour

LIBERAL

Fredericton

LIBERAL

Fundy Royal

CONSERVATIVE

Madawaska—Restigouche

LIBERAL

Miramichi—Grand Lake

LIBERAL

Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe

LIBERAL

New Brunswick Southwest

CONSERVATIVE

Saint John—Rothesay

LIBERAL

Tobique—Mactaquac

CONSERVATIVE

Quebec

FORECAST

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

BQ

Abitibi—Témiscamingue

BQ

Ahuntsic-Cartierville

LIBERAL

Alfred-Pellan

LIBERAL

Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation

LIBERAL

Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia

BQ

Beauce

CONSERVATIVE

Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d’Orléans–Charlevoix

CONSERVATIVE

Beauport—Limoilou

CONSERVATIVE

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel

BQ

Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis

CONSERVATIVE

Beloeil—Chambly

BQ

Berthier—Maskinongé

NDP

Bourassa

LIBERAL

Brome—Missisquoi

LIBERAL

Brossard—Saint-Lambert

LIBERAL

Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles

CONSERVATIVE

Châteauguay—Lacolle

BQ

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

CONSERVATIVE

Compton—Stanstead

LIBERAL

Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle

LIBERAL

Drummond

BQ

Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

LIBERAL

Gatineau

LIBERAL

Hochelaga

BQ

Honoré-Mercier

LIBERAL

Hull—Aylmer

LIBERAL

Joliette

BQ

Jonquière

BQ

La Pointe-de-l’Île

BQ

La Prairie

LIBERAL

Lac-Saint-Jean

LIBERAL

Lac-Saint-Louis

LIBERAL

LaSalle–Émard–Verdun

LIBERAL

Laurentides—Labelle

BQ

Laurier—Sainte-Marie

BQ

Laval—Les Îles

LIBERAL

Lévis—Lotbinière

CONSERVATIVE

Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne

LIBERAL

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

BQ

Louis-Hébert

LIBERAL

Louis-Saint-Laurent

CONSERVATIVE

Manicouagan

BQ

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LIBERAL

Mégantic—L’Érable

CONSERVATIVE

Mirabel

BQ

Montarville

BQ

Montcalm

BQ

Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup

CONSERVATIVE

Mount Royal

LIBERAL

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount

LIBERAL

Outremont

LIBERAL

Papineau

LIBERAL

Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères

BQ

Pierrefonds—Dollard

LIBERAL

Pontiac

LIBERAL

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

CONSERVATIVE

Québec

LIBERAL

Repentigny

BQ

Richmond—Arthabaska

CONSERVATIVE

Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques

NDP

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

BQ

Rivière-du-Nord

BQ

Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

NDP

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot

BQ

Saint-Jean

BQ

Saint-Laurent

LIBERAL

Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

LIBERAL

Saint-Maurice—Champlain

BQ

Salaberry—Suroît

BQ

Shefford

LIBERAL

Sherbrooke

NDP

Terrebonne

BQ

Thérèse-De Blainville

BQ

Trois-Rivières

CONSERVATIVE

Vaudreuil—Soulanges

LIBERAL

Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs

LIBERAL

Vimy

LIBERAL

Ontario

FORECAST

Ajax

LIBERAL

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing

NDP

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

LIBERAL

Barrie—Innisfil

CONSERVATIVE

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

LIBERAL

Bay of Quinte

LIBERAL

Beaches—East York

LIBERAL

Brampton Centre

LIBERAL

Brampton East

NDP

Brampton North

LIBERAL

Brampton South

LIBERAL

Brampton West

LIBERAL

Brantford–Brant

CONSERVATIVE

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

CONSERVATIVE

Burlington

LIBERAL

Cambridge

LIBERAL

Carleton

CONSERVATIVE

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

CONSERVATIVE

Davenport

NDP

Don Valley East

LIBERAL

Don Valley North

LIBERAL

Don Valley West

LIBERAL

Dufferin—Caledon

CONSERVATIVE

Durham

CONSERVATIVE

Eglinton—Lawrence

LIBERAL

Elgin—Middlesex—London

CONSERVATIVE

Essex

CONSERVATIVE

Etobicoke Centre

LIBERAL

Etobicoke North

LIBERAL

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

LIBERAL

Flamborough—Glanbrook

CONSERVATIVE

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

LIBERAL

Guelph

LIBERAL

Haldimand—Norfolk

CONSERVATIVE

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

CONSERVATIVE

Hamilton Centre

NDP

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LIBERAL

Hamilton Mountain

NDP

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

LIBERAL

Hastings—Lennox and Addington

CONSERVATIVE

Humber River–Black Creek

LIBERAL

Huron—Bruce

CONSERVATIVE

Kanata—Carleton

CONSERVATIVE

Kenora

CONSERVATIVE

King—Vaughan

LIBERAL

Kingston and the Islands

LIBERAL

Kitchener Centre

LIBERAL

Kitchener South—Hespeler

LIBERAL

Kitchener—Conestoga

CONSERVATIVE

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

CONSERVATIVE

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

CONSERVATIVE

Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

CONSERVATIVE

London North Centre

LIBERAL

London West

LIBERAL

London—Fanshawe

NDP

Markham—Stouffville

LIBERAL

Markham—Thornhill

LIBERAL

Markham—Unionville

CONSERVATIVE

Milton

LIBERAL

Mississauga Centre

LIBERAL

Mississauga East–Cooksville

LIBERAL

Mississauga—Erin Mills

LIBERAL

Mississauga—Lakeshore

LIBERAL

Mississauga—Malton

LIBERAL

Mississauga—Streetsville

LIBERAL

Nepean

LIBERAL

Newmarket—Aurora

LIBERAL

Niagara Centre

LIBERAL

Niagara Falls

CONSERVATIVE

Niagara West

CONSERVATIVE

Nickel Belt

NDP

Nipissing—Timiskaming

LIBERAL

Northumberland–Peterborough South

LIBERAL

Oakville

LIBERAL

Oakville North—Burlington

LIBERAL

Orléans

LIBERAL

Oshawa

CONSERVATIVE

Ottawa Centre

NDP

Ottawa South

LIBERAL

Ottawa West—Nepean

LIBERAL

Ottawa—Vanier

LIBERAL

Oxford

CONSERVATIVE

Parkdale—High Park

LIBERAL

Parry Sound—Muskoka

CONSERVATIVE

Perth—Wellington

CONSERVATIVE

Peterborough–Kawartha

LIBERAL

Pickering—Uxbridge

LIBERAL

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

CONSERVATIVE

Richmond Hill

LIBERAL

Sarnia—Lambton

CONSERVATIVE

Sault Ste. Marie

LIBERAL

Scarborough Centre

LIBERAL

Scarborough North

LIBERAL

Scarborough Southwest

LIBERAL

Scarborough—Agincourt

LIBERAL

Scarborough—Guildwood

LIBERAL

Scarborough—Rouge Park

LIBERAL

Simcoe North

CONSERVATIVE

Simcoe—Grey

CONSERVATIVE

Spadina—Fort York

LIBERAL

St. Catharines

LIBERAL

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

CONSERVATIVE

Sudbury

LIBERAL

Thornhill

CONSERVATIVE

Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LIBERAL

Thunder Bay—Superior North

LIBERAL

Timmins—James Bay

NDP

Toronto Centre

LIBERAL

Toronto–St. Paul’s

LIBERAL

Toronto—Danforth

NDP

University—Rosedale

LIBERAL

Vaughan—Woodbridge

LIBERAL

Waterloo

LIBERAL

Wellington—Halton Hills

CONSERVATIVE

Whitby

LIBERAL

Willowdale

LIBERAL

Windsor West

NDP

Windsor—Tecumseh

NDP

York Centre

LIBERAL

York South—Weston

LIBERAL

York—Simcoe

CONSERVATIVE

Manitoba

FORECAST

Brandon—Souris

CONSERVATIVE

Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley

LIBERAL

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

NDP

Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa

CONSERVATIVE

Elmwood—Transcona

NDP

Kildonan—St. Paul

CONSERVATIVE

Portage—Lisgar

CONSERVATIVE

Provencher

CONSERVATIVE

Saint Boniface—Saint Vital

LIBERAL

Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman

CONSERVATIVE

Winnipeg Centre

NDP

Winnipeg North

LIBERAL

Winnipeg South

LIBERAL

Winnipeg South Centre

LIBERAL

Saskatchewan

FORECAST

Battlefords—Lloydminster

CONSERVATIVE

Cypress Hills—Grasslands

CONSERVATIVE

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

CONSERVATIVE

Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek

CONSERVATIVE

Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

CONSERVATIVE

Prince Albert

CONSERVATIVE

Regina—Lewvan

CONSERVATIVE

Regina—Qu’Appelle

CONSERVATIVE

Regina—Wascana

LIBERAL

Saskatoon—Grasswood

CONSERVATIVE

Saskatoon—University

CONSERVATIVE

Saskatoon West

NDP

Souris—Moose Mountain

CONSERVATIVE

Yorkton—Melville

CONSERVATIVE

 

Alberta

FORECAST

Banff—Airdrie

CONSERVATIVE

Battle River—Crowfoot

CONSERVATIVE

Bow River

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Centre

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Confederation

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Forest Lawn

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Heritage

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Midnapore

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Nose Hill

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Rocky Ridge

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Shepard

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Signal Hill

CONSERVATIVE

Calgary Skyview

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Centre

LIBERAL

Edmonton Griesbach

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Manning

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Mill Woods

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Riverbend

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton Strathcona

NDP

Edmonton West

CONSERVATIVE

Edmonton—Wetaskiwin

CONSERVATIVE

Foothills

CONSERVATIVE

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

CONSERVATIVE

Grande Prairie–Mackenzie

CONSERVATIVE

Lakeland

CONSERVATIVE

Lethbridge

CONSERVATIVE

Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner

CONSERVATIVE

Peace River—Westlock

CONSERVATIVE

Red Deer—Mountain View

CONSERVATIVE

Red Deer–Lacombe

CONSERVATIVE

St. Albert—Edmonton

CONSERVATIVE

Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan

CONSERVATIVE

Sturgeon River–Parkland

CONSERVATIVE

Yellowhead

CONSERVATIVE

British Columbia

FORECAST

Abbotsford

CONSERVATIVE

Burnaby North—Seymour

LIBERAL

Burnaby South

NDP

Cariboo—Prince George

CONSERVATIVE

Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola

CONSERVATIVE

Chilliwack—Hope

CONSERVATIVE

Cloverdale—Langley City

LIBERAL

Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam

LIBERAL

Courtenay—Alberni

CONSERVATIVE

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

NDP

Delta

LIBERAL

Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke

NDP

Fleetwood—Port Kells

LIBERAL

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo

CONSERVATIVE

Kelowna—Lake Country

CONSERVATIVE

Kootenay—Columbia

CONSERVATIVE

Langley—Aldergrove

CONSERVATIVE

Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon

CONSERVATIVE

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

GREEN

New Westminster—Burnaby

NDP

North Island–Powell River

NDP

North Okanagan—Shuswap

CONSERVATIVE

North Vancouver

LIBERAL

Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

LIBERAL

Port Moody—Coquitlam

NDP

Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies

CONSERVATIVE

Richmond Centre

CONSERVATIVE

Saanich—Gulf Islands

GREEN

Skeena—Bulkley Valley

NDP

South Okanagan—West Kootenay

CONSERVATIVE

South Surrey—White Rock

CONSERVATIVE

Steveston—Richmond East

CONSERVATIVE

Surrey Centre

LIBERAL

Surrey—Newton

LIBERAL

Vancouver Centre

LIBERAL

Vancouver East

NDP

Vancouver Granville

INDEPENDENT

Vancouver Kingsway

NDP

Vancouver Quadra

LIBERAL

Vancouver South

LIBERAL

Victoria

GREEN

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

LIBERAL

Territories

FORECAST

Yukon

LIBERAL

Northwest Territories

LIBERAL

Nunavut

LIBERAL

Click here for a PDF version of this report: Seat Projection (October 21, 2019)

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