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Liberals Headed to Form Government

WITHIN RAZOR’S EDGE OF MAJORITY

[Ottawa – October 20, 2019] In our final poll for the 43rd federal election campaign, we are predicting that the Liberals will capture the most seats on Monday. Given the trends over the past week and the regional patterns, we feel comfortable that the Liberals are going to win with at least a strong minority. However, the distribution of Liberal support is extremely seat-efficient and there is still a strong possibility that the party could eke out a bare majority tomorrow.

Momentum seems to be favouring the Liberals, who have been steadily edging upward in the past week, while the Conservative Party has seen a monotonic decline. The Liberal lead is now holding steady at 4.2 points and we offer our final two- and three-day roll-ups as an annex. The NDP and the Bloc Québécois saw significant rises in the days following the debates, but the NDP appears to have plateaued and the Bloc seems to be falling back.

Regionally, we expect the Liberals will win a majority of seats in Ontario and Quebec. The Conservatives, meanwhile, will sweep Alberta and Saskatchewan. We suspect that the unusual results we found in Atlantic Canada are a product of the small sample size; our prediction is that the Liberals will capture a majority of the seats there, but will not reproduce their 2015 sweep of the region.

Our final projected seat tallies are as follows (note that we will be putting a seat-by-seat forecast based on internal polling, historical patterns, and other manual adjustments that may not line up with these figures):

LPC

CPC

NDP

BQ

GP

PPC

OTHER

163

110

32

27

4

1

1

There remain a few key areas of uncertainty which could affect the final outcome. Of course, there is British Columbia, which is a confused four-way race and our ability to offer firm predictions there is quite limited. Next up is Quebec, where we have seen some last-minute shifts from the Liberals to the Bloc. Finally, the NDP’s rise among working class voters in Ontario may introduce vote splitting that could assist the Conservatives in some of the key suburban ridings. Interestingly, the NDP rise in support among the working class mirrors the Conservative decline with these voters.

Methodology:

This study involved a blended sample collected using two separate methodologies: Computer Assisted Live Interviews (CATI) and EKOS’ proprietary High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are October 17-20, 2019. In total, a random sample of 1,994 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Please click here for the full report.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

2 comments to Liberals Headed to Form Government

  • Canadians can not have some one we can not trust , to make decisions that is going to be bad for Canada like Justin Trudeau has done . Trudeau Talks about middle class POOR People are not middle class , people starving and forced to live on the streets AR NOT MIDDLE CLASS PEOPLE. People living in housing and the housing is not getting looked after and the conditions of this places are disrespectful . JUSTIN TRUDEAU Has To Go . the list goes on and on. Stuff that has not even been touched on with people starving and the Canadian Government is still to this day over looking it .

  • Chris

    Quite interesting that the more educated are staying with the Liberals and the less educated with Conservatives… Almost like they saw the anti-science policies that came with the last Conservative government…

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