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CAQ Holds Massive Lead in Quebec

[Ottawa – July 3, 2020] Quebec’s governing party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) enjoys a huge lead over the opposition Liberals. Nearly six out of ten (59%) decided voters in the province say they would vote for the CAQ, led by premier François Legault. The CAQ enjoys an unprecedented 40-point lead over the Liberals, who are in a distant second place at 19 points. There appears to be no honeymoon period for the Liberals and their new leader Dominique Anglade, who was acclaimed to the leadership of the party in May. Meanwhile, Quebec solidaire and the Parti Québécois (PQ) are in a statistical tie for third place at 9 and 8 points respectively. The PQ is currently under the interim leadership of Pascal Bérubé until they elect a new leader in August. For the CAQ, this represents a large boost in their support from the 2018 election, which saw them win 37% of the vote en route to a majority government. The remaining three parties have dropped since the 2018 election. The Liberals are down six points from the 25% they won in 2018, the PQ is down nine points and Quebec solidaire is down seven points.

The CAQ leads across the province, even on the Island of Montreal where they won just two out of 27 seats in 2018. On the Island, the CAQ leads the Liberals by ten points (42 to 32). Outside of Montreal, the CAQ has astronomical leads, polling at about two-thirds of the vote in every region except Western and Northern Quebec, where they are still well over 50 points.

Unlike what we’re seeing in federal polling, there is no discernible gender gap between the parties, but there is a difference when it comes to age. Younger (under 35) voters are significantly less likely to support the CAQ. Among his cohort, the CAQ is only polling at 39%, with the left-wing Quebec solidaire party in second place at 25% and the Liberals in third at 21%. Among voters over 35, it is a very different story. The CAQ has a large lead in every age category over 35, polling at 64% in each group, with the Liberals in second in each age group, ranging between 18 and 19 points.

As is normal for Quebec politics, there is a huge linguistic gap between Francophones and Anglophones. The CAQ has a huge lead over the Liberals (64 to 13) among respondents who took the survey in French, while the Liberals have an even bigger lead over the CAQ (72 to 11) among respondents who took the survey in English. Among Anglophones, the CAQ is actually in third behind “Other”, which is at 13 points.

The CAQ has a large lead over the Liberals in each education group, but is doing especially well with voters who have high school or college educations (65% and 63% respectively). The Liberals are polling at 16 points with high school educated voters and 18 points with college educated voters. The race is a bit closer with university educated voters. The CAQ has a 27-point lead (50 to 23) among this group, with Quebec solidaire in third at 14 points.

While the CAQ may have a large lead now, it should be noted at 13% of respondents – including 25% of Anglophones – remain undecided. If these voters go Liberal, like most of Quebec’s Anglophone community, it would cut into the CAQ’s lead significantly.

Methodology:

This survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are June 16 to July 3, 2020. In total, a random sample of 1,870 Quebec residents aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, education, language, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the Quebec electorate, according to Census data and past election turnouts.

Please click here for the full report.

Please click here for the data tables.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

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