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Saskatchewan Party with strong lead; Many remain undecided

[Ottawa – July 10, 2020] The Saskatchewan Party, which has been in power in Saskatchewan since 2007, remains popular across the province. They have a 25-point lead over the opposition New Democrats, leading the NDP 57% to 32%. However among all voters, this lead is cut down to 43% to 24%, as nearly one-quarter of voters (23%) are undecided. A further nine percent of voters (12% of decided voters) would vote for another party.

For the Saskatchewan Party, winning 57% of the vote would represent a 5 point drop from the 2016 election, when they won 62% of the vote under the leadership of former premier Brad Wall. At 32%, the New Democrats are up two points from what they won in 2016 (30%). After becoming premier in 2018, Scott Moe’s party is almost as popular as they were under Wall, while the NDP under new leader Ryan Meili remains fairly stagnant. This is good news for Moe, as the province will likely be holding an election this Fall, barring a postponement due to COVID-19 (Moe had already intended to hold an election this Spring, but the COVID-19 outbreak halted his plans).

The Saskatchewan Party has the lead in every region of the province, including in the two main cities of Saskatoon and Regina, which are pivotal bellwethers for forming government. The Saskatchewan Party has a nine-point lead over the NDP (46-37) in Saskatoon and an 11-point lead in Regina (50-39). Their lead is even larger in rural parts of the province, especially Western Saskatchewan, where their lead extends to 55 points (75-20). There is little difference between men and women in how the parties are polling among decided voters, though one-third (32%) of women remain undecided, compared to only 14% of men.

Voting patterns by age cohort are less pronounced than what we are seeing in other jurisdictions. Older voters (over 65) are only slightly more likely to vote for the conservative-leaning Saskatchewan Party than younger generations. The Saskatchewan Party has a 33-point lead over the NDP among voters over 65, compared to the 25-point lead among all voters. Education does have an effect on how the parties are polling. University-educated voters only favour the Saskatchewan Party by six-points (48-42), while College-educated voters back the Sask Party by 28 points (57-29), and high school educated voters even more-so, giving the Saskatchewan Party a 38 point lead (64-26).

While the Saskatchewan Party still has a large lead over the NDP, the large number of undecideds and the large number of voters supporting “other parties” (who may change their minds, not wanting to split the vote) may cut into this lead, making for the possibility for a closer election in the Fall.

Methodology:

This survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are June 16 to July 9, 2020. In total, a random sample of 1240 Saskatchewan residents aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, education, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the Saskatchewan electorate, according to Census data and past election turnouts.

Please click here for the data tables.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

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