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Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba

[Ottawa – July 24, 2020] The governing Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba enjoys a 16-point lead over the opposition New Democrats, leading them 43-27. The Liberals are in third place with 18 points and the Greens have seven points. For both the Tories and the NDP, this is represents a four point drop from their 2019 result where the PCs won 47% of the vote, and the New Democrats won 31%. The Liberals are up four points from 14% and the Greens are up one point from the 6% they won in last year’s election. The remaining 5% would vote for another party. One-in-five voters (20%) remain undecided.

The Progressive Conservatives lead in every region of the province, with sizeable leads in rural Manitoba. They have the biggest lead in Western Manitoba (“Westman”), where they lead the NDP by 45 points (58% to 13%). The Liberals are actually in second place in Westman at 18%. The race is much closer in Winnipeg, where more than half the province lives. There, the Tories have a five point (37-32) lead over the New Democrats. Winnipeg is also the best region for the Liberals, who are at 21% in the capital. All but three (15 out of 18) NDP seats and all three Liberal seats won in 2019 are in Winnipeg. There is not much of a gender gap between the parties, though the NDP is polling slightly better among women (29%) than men (24%). The Tories are polling at 45% among men and 43% among women.
The Progressive Conservatives lead among all age groups, but their support increases with age. Nearly half (48%) of voters over 65 support the PCs, while only 36% of voters under 35 do. NDP support is fairly constant among each age group, but are in a surprise third place behind the Liberals among voters under 35. One quarter of young voters (25%) support the Liberals, while 23% support the NDP. Liberal support is much lower among older voters. Like we have seen in other provinces, there is a big difference in party support by educational attainment. The PCs have a large lead (52-19) over the NDP among high school and college (46-26) educated voters. However, among university educated voters, the NDP has a slight lead (35-32) over the Progressive Conservatives.

With the next election two or three years away, much can change in how Manitobans plan on voting. With one-fifth of voters still undecided and with strong numbers from traditionally weaker third parties, anything can still happen between now and whenever the next election ends up happening.

Methodology:

This survey was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are June 16 to July 23, 2020. In total, a random sample of 1691 Manitoba residents aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, education, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the Manitoba electorate, according to Census data and past election turnouts.

Please click here for the data tables.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.

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