The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on June 2, 2023. [More...]
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The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on June 2, 2023. [More...] [Ottawa – May 26] As Albertans head to the polls on Monday, the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) led by premier Danielle Smith looks poised for re-election, but it will be a close race. A new EKOS poll suggests that half (50.4%) of the Alberta electorate will back the UCP in the election, three-points ahead (47.3%) of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), led by former premier Rachel Notley. The remaining 3.1% of voters plan casting their ballots for other parties. It will be a two-horse race, with none of the minor parties expected to win any seats. [More...] [Ottawa – March 31, 2019] With just over two weeks to go until Albertans head to the polls, incumbent Premier Rachel Notley is becoming more competitive. She has improved on some measures in the past couple of weeks, while Jason Kenny has gone down somewhat. Most notably, about half of Albertans (46 per cent) now say the province in headed in the right direction, up five points since February. Furthermore, Rachel Notley is narrowly seen as the best Premier for the province. [More...] CBC commissioned EKOS Research Associates to conduct a survey of Canadians’ views on the economy, energy, and the environment. Click here for the full report: Full Report (March 17, 2016) Overview of FindingsResults reveal that Canadians are torn between a rising environmental ethic and deep anxieties about the economy. While there is strong sympathy for greater regulation and investment in a post carbon future, there is equally broad recognition that our energy resources are a critical ingredient of our economic future… [More...] POOR SEAT EFFICIENCY MAY KNOCK THE PCS TO SINGLE-DIGIT SEAT TALLY [Ottawa – May 4, 2015] In what has been the most unusual election campaign in recent memory, Alberta’s NDP appears poised for a historic breakthrough. It seems that Mr. Prentice’s gambit to secure a fresh mandate has backfired and, given the vagaries of Alberta’s first-past-the-post electoral system, the party that has enjoyed 12 consecutive majority governments may very well be relegated to third place. Of course, the wild card in all of this will be turnout. The NDP do extremely well with younger generations (who… [More...] ALBERTA NDP LEAD RE-INFORCED BY VOTE SPLITTING [Ottawa – April 30, 2015] This week’s poll results present a radical change from the 2012 Alberta provincial election and we are looking at a very real possibility of Alberta switching governments for only the fourth time in its history. Overall, there are three very interesting stories underlying these results: 1.) Breathtaking change is possibleAfter 43 years and 12 consecutive majority governments, it appears that Albertans may well be sending the Progressive Conservative Association to the showers. Indeed, with these figures, the NDP is not… [More...] |
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EKOS Accurately Predicts NDP Majority Victory in Alberta
…BUT SHOULD WE HAVE BETTER POLLING YARDSTICKS?
[Ottawa – May 7, 2015] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 29th general election of Alberta general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Rachel Notley’s majority victory. There were, however, some incongruities between our last poll and the final election results. We overestimated the Alberta NDP by 3.7 per cent and underestimated the Progressive Conservative Association by 5.3 points. Both differences fall outside the margin of error (albeit barely). Our final poll results for the Wildrose Party, the Alberta Liberal Party… [More...]