WHAT REALLY HAPPENED?
May 29, 2013
Click here for the full report: Post BC Election Review (May 29, 2013)
The provincial election in British Columbia produced a major gap between the forecasts based on polls and the results of the actual election. While the polls had shown a narrowing race and we had an unweighted tie in our final poll, it appeared that the NDP still enjoyed a modest lead and that they were ticketed for some form of government. This was shockingly not the case and the BC Liberals went on to… [More...]
[Ottawa – May 13, 2013] – As the British Columbia provincial election draws to a close, we see a considerably narrower race as voters head to the polls. We have created a model of most likely voters and the results are shown below. This model basically removes those who did not vote in the 2009 BC Election, as well as those who did the 2011 federal election, as our research has shown that these individuals tend to continue to not vote. We have also excluded those who could not recall where their polling station is located (for similar reasons)… [More...]
IS BRITISH COLUMBIA BREAKING AWAY FROM ITS TWO-PARTY SYSTEM?
[Ottawa – April 12, 2013] – With barely a month to go until the 40th British Columbia general election, the provincial NDP holds a commanding lead and are well-poised to recapture government after the Liberals’ 12-year reign. Despite their best efforts, the BC Liberals have been unable to improve their fortunes from two months ago and the party is mired at 27 per cent. With no forward momentum and time running out, Christy Clark stands little chance at retaining her status as Premier on May 14.
It is important… [More...]
BC CONSERVATIVES EMERGE AS CONTENDER FOR UPCOMING ELECTION
[Ottawa – February 14, 2013] – Since their narrow victory in 2009, support for the British Columbia Liberals has fallen precariously and is trailing almost 12 points behind the BC NDP who, at 39 per cent, are within striking distance of a majority government. The reasons for this rather dramatic shift in support are unclear, but factors such as the Harmonized Sales Tax, the deficit, service cuts may be at play.
Further strengthening the NDP’s lead is the demographic composition of their supporters. Unlike their Ontario counterparts who have been… [More...]