IS THE FOREIGN-BORN VOTE SWINGING BACK TO THE LIBERALS?
[Ottawa – April 19, 2013] The two largest demographic forces in Canadian society are aging and immigration. Both of these are profoundly altering the political landscape and both of these forces have been favoured CPC fortunes in recent years. Here we will focus on how immigration is altering political fortunes of different parties and speculate as to how this augurs for the future. We will also look at attitudes to immigration itself, how this is evolving in Canada and how this links to party preference (and other factors).
Examining Longer Term Shifts in Values, Social Class, and Societal Outlook
By Frank Graves
Presentation to the School of Public Policy and GovernanceUniversity of Toronto
Click here for Frank Graves’ presentation to the School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Toronto. The presentation addresses a number of important issues, including the shifting values and priorities of Canadians, the changing outlook on Canada’s middle class and economy, and the perceived health of democracy in Canada.
Left-Right, Forward-Backward (March 21, 2013)
CONSERVATIVES STILL IN LEAD BUT SOME EVIDENCE OF REGIME FATIGUE
[Ottawa – February 16, 2013] – While there is no horserace of any significance right now, it is useful to take an occasional check-up on how voters are viewing the parties and how this might reflect various factors such as the ongoing Liberal leadership, a darkening long term economic outlook and the day to day travails of the parties.
We also use this large survey as part of ongoing testing of our survey methodologies and to update some very important long term tracking of issues. In this first… [More...]
[Ottawa – January 9, 2013] Follow the link below for our complete five-part series titled “Looking Backward, Looking Forward”.
In this series, we examine some of the broad social forces changing our society that have been largely hidden from mainstream discussion or even working in ways opposite to the received wisdom.
Click here for the full report: Looking Backward, Looking Forward – Complete Series (January 9, 2013)
ADDENDUM TO LOOKING BACKWARD, LOOKING FORWARD: PART 3
[Ottawa – January 4, 2013] In yesterday’s release on social media, we discussed its linkage to democratic health and to socioeconomic status (SES) – i.e., income and educational attainment. We provide two additional pieces of background evidence. The first doesn’t directly link social media and democratic health but it does show the recent trend lines in how Canadians rate the health of democracy. The trend line is not auspicious and shows that a much longer decline in trust in government, which is pervasive to the advanced western world and began in… [More...]
FIVE BIG FORCES SHAPING OUR SOCIETY
JANUARY 1, 2013
On the cusp of another year, it is customary to take stock of the past and what it might mean for the future. There is an ample inventory of newsmakers, events and personalities assembled by the media and pundits. What I wanted to do here is look beyond these more specific things and look for the broader social forces producing really important changes in our society and our future. To qualify for this list, the forces must be beyond the obvious news of the day and they… [More...]
Click here for a presentation by Frank Graves for the 2012 State of the Federation conference: Values and Identity (December 1, 2012)
RETHINKING CANADA’S PLACE IN THE WORLD
Click here for the study results presented to the 2012 Walter Gordon Symposium in Public Policy: 2012 Walter Gordon Symposium Presentation (March 20, 2012)
COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES
[Ottawa – January 26, 2012] The only smoke visible in Liberal Canada these days is coming from the scorched earth of May 2nd. It may therefore not be that surprising that the party would resort to some more pyrotechnic measures to reignite its fortunes. On the surface, the resolution to not just decriminalize but to legalize pot seems more of a Hail Mary than a sound strategic foundation for renewal. But is this really that hazy? When one looks at the longer term patterns of public opinion, and considers the truly available constituencies… [More...]
[Ottawa – January 14, 2012] Follow the link below for our complete six-part series titled “Beyond the Horserace”.
In this series, we examine the changes that have occured since May’s election, the flaws in our political system that were exposed as a result, and the opportunities they present.
Click here for complete six-part series: Beyond the Horserace (January 14, 2012)
Click here for the complete data tables for this series: Data Tables
THE LONGER TERM VIEW FROM THE PUBLIC
[Ottawa – January 12, 2012] Is there anything sadder than a pollster without a horserace? The fever pitch of real and imagined perturbations in an electorate vibrating to the vagaries of minority governments has been displaced by the serenity of a clear majority government. Not only are the Conservatives ascendant in the House of Commons, they have a clear majority in the Senate and are refashioning public institutions such as public service, the courts, and the media to support their goal of a new era with Conservatives as the new “natural governing… [More...]
Ontario Now Dead Heat
[Ottawa – June 25, 2009] – The Conservative Party has edged ahead of the Liberal Party after months of lagging behind, according to the latest EKOS poll, released exclusively to cbc.ca.
The Liberal Party and its leader, Michael Ignatieff, appear to have paid a price for threatening to take the country to the polls this summer. EKOS’ daily tracking shows that they nose-dived after making the threat last week. Although the Liberals may have recovered some of that ground once they made a deal with Prime
PROBABLY FEELING BETTER ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT TOO…
[OTTAWA – June 2, 2009] – Some Canadians are feeling better about the economy these days, and those who are think that the government is doing a good job managing the economy. This shift may explain a modest improvement in the polls for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.
Ignatieff and the Liberals Take Off
Liberals take Significant Lead
[Ottawa – April 15, 2009] Under their new leader, Michael Ignatieff, the federal Liberal Party has vaulted into first place in the race towards the next election, riding renewed strength across the country with the exception of Alberta. In Quebec and Ontario, the party
Liberals Rejoin Battle Under Gloomy Skies
In an increasingly pessimistic mood about the economy and the Harper government’s handle on it, many Canadians are turning to the Liberal Party, which is now closing in on the ruling Conservatives.
If forced to choose between a Conservative government
EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
Timely Harper Election Call Yields Formidable Advantages for the CPC – Including Weak Liberal Leadership
National federal vote intention among decided voters: CPC 37%, LPC 24%, NDP 19%, Green Party 10%, and the BQ 6%
Conservatives also have the leadership advantage with Harper seen as “best Prime Minister” (32%), followed by Layton (19%); Dion is a distant third (12%)
Similar scores are given for leader