About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

An Outsider’s Perspective

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PROSPECTS FOR THE GREEN PARTY OF THE FUTURE

By Frank Graves

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Green Party of Canada at its 2016 Convention in Ottawa on August 6, 2016.

For more information about the conference, please visit the Green Party of Canada’s website.

Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: An Outsider’s Perspective: Prospects for the Green Party of Canada (August 6, 2016)

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Three-Way Tie as Voters Try and Sort Out Who Can Solve the Economy

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BALANCED BUDGET ISSUE MAY BE SORTING LIBERAL AND NDP FORTUNES IN REVERSE DIRECTIONS

[Ottawa – September 4, 2015] There have been some movements in an electorate that is becoming reluctantly engaged in a now month-old campaign that they are loosely acknowledging. If there was a sense that the Duffy scandal was beginning to awaken voters and weigh down on the Conservative fortunes, that sense has pretty well evaporated over the past couple of weeks. Attention deficit disordered voters appear to have at least temporarily moved on and the Conservatives now find themselves in a three-way tie with the… [More...]

Duffy Awakening Slumbering Electorate

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TRUDEAU’S LIBERALS GETTING THEIR GROOVE BACK?

[Ottawa – August 28, 2015] Voters are awaking from their summer slumber and noticing that they have been asked to follow what is going to be a very divisive and acrimonious campaign. At 34 points, the NDP maintains a clear and stable lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have dropped to 28 points. The Liberals, at 27 points, are doing much better than a month ago and are statistically tied for second place (and are not far off from the lead). The Green Party remains at six points.

Fractured Country Produces Tight and Unpredictable Race

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NDP EMERGING AS THE HOME FOR THE MOST DISAFFECTED WITH INCUMBENT

[Ottawa – August 14, 2015] Nothing definitive has emerged from this week’s polling. The race remains very tight with the NDP having plateaued, but they are still hanging on to a slight lead over a pretty moribund Conservative Party. The Liberals are showed some signs of life and may be closing the gap somewhat.

We saw that the debate did generate attention and impacts but the effects dissipated as we got further away from that event in time. But the debate did have at least… [More...]

Clear Forces, Highly Unpredictable Outcomes

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[Ottawa – July 17, 2015] There is not much going on out there in summer vacation land, but we do see some modest shifts in our most recent polling. While everyone is focussed on cottages, pools and BBQs, let’s try and set the stage for the inevitable return to what is going to be an exceedingly important and interesting campaign. We will begin by noting what we see as some of the relatively stable and important features of the voter landscape.

First of all, the outcome of the next election, at this stage is as clear… [More...]

Logjam Continues as Canadians Become More Receptive to Innovative Political Approaches

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[Ottawa – May 29, 2015] The NDP has fallen back slightly and the Liberals have risen slightly; all of these changes are of little (if any) statistical significance, but the net result is to confirm a new normal of a three-way race. What is most striking about this new normal is the frankly tepid level of enthusiasm for any of the above. The NDP are the clear movers and beneficiaries of the changes over the past few months, but they are still sub-thirty and slightly below their 2011 result. The Liberals are up significantly from 2011, but have… [More...]

Conservatives Hang on to Narrow Lead

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[Ottawa – April 24, 2015] There is nothing really of note in the vote intention numbers this week. We see the usual array of fluctuations in the regional and demographic samples, but the overall pattern is one of stasis. One gets the feeling that the public will only truly begin to engage now that the budget has been delivered. The coming month will be highly revealing as to who is in a good position to triumph in the fall.

At this time, we would like to pause and look at a couple of critical issues which often get obscured… [More...]

Liberals rebound in Quebec as Harper’s emotional connections with voters weaken

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[Ottawa – April 10, 2015] If only eight percent of voters shifted their current vote intention, we would have a dead heat across the three lead parties. The voter landscape is shifting in ways that do not appear to favour Stephen Harper’s Conservatives who now find themselves under 29 points for the first time since the security bounce from last October propelled them into a small but significant lead (which now appears to have evaporated). They now (insignificantly) trail Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and see less than a six-point margin over a clearly rejuvenated NDP.

Despite the sliding fortunes for… [More...]

Voters Stuck

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GOVERNMENT CURRENTLY IN SYNC ON CULTURE AND SECURITY, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY?

[Ottawa – March 13, 2015] It’s a painfully dull week on the vote intention front and there is little to report as the Conservatives and the Liberals seesaw endlessly back and forth for the lead. It is anecdotally noteworthy that the Liberals are at their lowest point since July 2013, but they’re only slightly off from their average showing over the past few months and they’re just two points shy of the lead.

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Conservatives Slide Slightly: Is the Terror Card Losing Force?

[Ottawa – February 13, 2015] In a week blissfully free of any new terror atrocities, it appears that the security wave which propelled Stephen Harper into a clear lead has lost momentum. The Conservatives have declined three points and the Liberals have risen (an insignificant two points). In examining the demographic and regional shifts, which are modest, it fits with the hypothesis that the lower salience of security in a week with no beheadings or burnings is the factor underlying this modest but statistically significant shift.

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If You Can’t Even Get a Dead Cat Bounce Out of This, Your Nine Lives May Be Up

CONSERVATIVES REMAIN LOCKED BELOW 30 POINTS DESPITE RECENT STRING OF HELPFUL SURPRISES

[Ottawa – May 2, 2014] The period of the past few weeks has been an unusually auspicious one for Stephen Harper and his government. The more or less regular cacophony of critical commentary which has characterised the past year of his regime’s dealings with media, opposition, and critics was temporary displaced by a series of surprising events.

First, the untimely and tragic death of Jim Flaherty and the suspension of typical parliamentary invective was replaced with a dignified, non-partisan celebration of his life and achievements including… [More...]

What is Really Going on with the Federal Political Landscape?

A CAREFUL LOOK AT THE FAULT LINES AND TRAJECTORIES

[Ottawa – April 11, 2014] Using an unusually large random probability sample (4,134 Canadian adults), which covers the on- and offline segments of Canada’s population, as well as both those who rely on landlines and cell phones, we can chart where the voter landscape is right now. Our data also provide methods for analyzing voter mobility since the last election. Coupled with basic barometers of approval and dominant issue tracking, we can get an excellent fix on where the voters are today and how they arrived where they are today… [More...]

Quebec Liberals Headed to a Win

Quebeckers Reject Referendum Adventure as it Appears They Have Already Emotionally Separated from Canada

[Ottawa – April 4, 2014] As a rather unusual campaign nears completion, it appears that Pauline Marois’ gambit to secure a majority mandate and a path to a new referendum, has gone horribly wrong for her and the Parti Québécois (PQ). Barring some frankly unforeseeable collapse Philippe Couillard’s Liberal party is going to emerge with a victory on Monday. It is unclear whether it will be a majority or not, but the high hopes of a PQ win, let alone a majority, lie in ruins… [More...]

Closer Race as Parliament Begins – January 30, 2014

ETHICS AND ACCOUNTABILITY COULD BE PIVOTAL ISSUE IN NEXT ELECTION

[Ottawa – January 30, 2014] In our latest poll, the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a near tie. At just under 30 points, the Conservative Party is nipping at the heels of the gently sliding Liberals. who hold a narrow three-point lead which disappears when we turn to our likely voter model. The NDP remains in third place, but they are holding steady at 24 and they are within striking distance of both parties

Stephen Harper Plumbing Record Lows on Trust, Direction, and Approval

FAR MORE CANADIANS BELIEVE DUFFY THAN HARPER

[Ottawa – October 29, 2013] The recent Senate spending scandal is registering strongly with voters and shaping up to be a truly frightening shock to this government’s prospects as they try to hit the reset button in lead up to their Halloween Eve convention. It comes on the heels of a series of setbacks which finds the government in its most precarious position since it assumed office some seven plus years ago.

It is important to remember, however, that Stephen Harper has come back before and it would be foolish to… [More...]

So What’s Really Bothering You Canada?

(AND WHAT DO YOU WANT YOUR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO DO ABOUT IT?)

[Ottawa – October 17, 2013] As most Canadians blithely ignore the Speech from the Throne (our past research shows about 10 per cent follow this event), we thought it would be worthwhile to review what is truly on the minds of Canadians today. Whereas the north of the Queensway crowd is all atwitter about the throne speech, the preoccupations and attention of average Canadians are decidedly elsewhere. What are those concerns? Is there a correspondence to the framing document for the government’s agenda and the salient concerns… [More...]

An Unapologetic Analysis of the BC Polling Debacle

WHAT REALLY HAPPENED?

May 29, 2013

Click here for the full report: Post BC Election Review (May 29, 2013)

 

Introduction

The provincial election in British Columbia produced a major gap between the forecasts based on polls and the results of the actual election. While the polls had shown a narrowing race and we had an unweighted tie in our final poll, it appeared that the NDP still enjoyed a modest lead and that they were ticketed for some form of government. This was shockingly not the case and the BC Liberals went on to… [More...]

Immigration, Diversity, and the Political Landscape – April 19, 2013

IS THE FOREIGN-BORN VOTE SWINGING BACK TO THE LIBERALS?

[Ottawa – April 19, 2013] The two largest demographic forces in Canadian society are aging and immigration. Both of these are profoundly altering the political landscape and both of these forces have been favoured CPC fortunes in recent years. Here we will focus on how immigration is altering political fortunes of different parties and speculate as to how this augurs for the future. We will also look at attitudes to immigration itself, how this is evolving in Canada and how this links to party preference (and other factors).

Canada… [More...]

LOOKING BACKWARD, LOOKING FORWARD – COMPLETE SERIES

[Ottawa – January 9, 2013] Follow the link below for our complete five-part series titled “Looking Backward, Looking Forward”.

In this series, we examine some of the broad social forces changing our society that have been largely hidden from mainstream discussion or even working in ways opposite to the received wisdom.

Click here for the full report: Looking Backward, Looking Forward – Complete Series (January 9, 2013)

LOOKING BACKWARD, LOOKING FORWARD: PART 4

FORCE FOUR: VALUES SLOWLY SHIFTING AWAY FROM RIGHT AS GOVERNMENT DOES OPPOSITE

[Ottawa – January 4, 2013] As we have already recently developed this theme, we will not review it in depth but we will comment more on its implications and connections to some of the other forces. We believe that this force merits discussion for two reasons. First, values are the crucial normative goalposts which define a society and should shape its direction. They reflect what citizens see as right and wrong and what kind of society they would like to hand off to the next generation, how… [More...]