PROSPECTS FOR THE GREEN PARTY OF THE FUTURE
By Frank Graves
The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Green Party of Canada at its 2016 Convention in Ottawa on August 6, 2016.
For more information about the conference, please visit the Green Party of Canada’s website.
Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: An Outsider’s Perspective: Prospects for the Green Party of Canada (August 6, 2016)
NDP EMERGING AS THE HOME FOR THE MOST DISAFFECTED WITH INCUMBENT
[Ottawa – August 14, 2015] Nothing definitive has emerged from this week’s polling. The race remains very tight with the NDP having plateaued, but they are still hanging on to a slight lead over a pretty moribund Conservative Party. The Liberals are showed some signs of life and may be closing the gap somewhat.
We saw that the debate did generate attention and impacts but the effects dissipated as we got further away from that event in time. But the debate did have at least… [More...]
[Ottawa – July 17, 2015] There is not much going on out there in summer vacation land, but we do see some modest shifts in our most recent polling. While everyone is focussed on cottages, pools and BBQs, let’s try and set the stage for the inevitable return to what is going to be an exceedingly important and interesting campaign. We will begin by noting what we see as some of the relatively stable and important features of the voter landscape.
First of all, the outcome of the next election, at this stage is as clear… [More...]
[Ottawa – May 29, 2015] The NDP has fallen back slightly and the Liberals have risen slightly; all of these changes are of little (if any) statistical significance, but the net result is to confirm a new normal of a three-way race. What is most striking about this new normal is the frankly tepid level of enthusiasm for any of the above. The NDP are the clear movers and beneficiaries of the changes over the past few months, but they are still sub-thirty and slightly below their 2011 result. The Liberals are up significantly from 2011, but have… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 24, 2015] There is nothing really of note in the vote intention numbers this week. We see the usual array of fluctuations in the regional and demographic samples, but the overall pattern is one of stasis. One gets the feeling that the public will only truly begin to engage now that the budget has been delivered. The coming month will be highly revealing as to who is in a good position to triumph in the fall.
At this time, we would like to pause and look at a couple of critical issues which often get obscured… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 10, 2015] If only eight percent of voters shifted their current vote intention, we would have a dead heat across the three lead parties. The voter landscape is shifting in ways that do not appear to favour Stephen Harper’s Conservatives who now find themselves under 29 points for the first time since the security bounce from last October propelled them into a small but significant lead (which now appears to have evaporated). They now (insignificantly) trail Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and see less than a six-point margin over a clearly rejuvenated NDP.
Despite the sliding fortunes for… [More...]
Quebeckers Reject Referendum Adventure as it Appears They Have Already Emotionally Separated from Canada
[Ottawa – April 4, 2014] As a rather unusual campaign nears completion, it appears that Pauline Marois’ gambit to secure a majority mandate and a path to a new referendum, has gone horribly wrong for her and the Parti Québécois (PQ). Barring some frankly unforeseeable collapse Philippe Couillard’s Liberal party is going to emerge with a victory on Monday. It is unclear whether it will be a majority or not, but the high hopes of a PQ win, let alone a majority, lie in ruins… [More...]
ETHICS AND ACCOUNTABILITY COULD BE PIVOTAL ISSUE IN NEXT ELECTION
[Ottawa – January 30, 2014] In our latest poll, the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a near tie. At just under 30 points, the Conservative Party is nipping at the heels of the gently sliding Liberals. who hold a narrow three-point lead which disappears when we turn to our likely voter model. The NDP remains in third place, but they are holding steady at 24 and they are within striking distance of both parties
(AND WHAT DO YOU WANT YOUR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO DO ABOUT IT?)
[Ottawa – October 17, 2013] As most Canadians blithely ignore the Speech from the Throne (our past research shows about 10 per cent follow this event), we thought it would be worthwhile to review what is truly on the minds of Canadians today. Whereas the north of the Queensway crowd is all atwitter about the throne speech, the preoccupations and attention of average Canadians are decidedly elsewhere. What are those concerns? Is there a correspondence to the framing document for the government’s agenda and the salient concerns… [More...]
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED?
May 29, 2013
Click here for the full report: Post BC Election Review (May 29, 2013)
The provincial election in British Columbia produced a major gap between the forecasts based on polls and the results of the actual election. While the polls had shown a narrowing race and we had an unweighted tie in our final poll, it appeared that the NDP still enjoyed a modest lead and that they were ticketed for some form of government. This was shockingly not the case and the BC Liberals went on to… [More...]
IS THE FOREIGN-BORN VOTE SWINGING BACK TO THE LIBERALS?
[Ottawa – April 19, 2013] The two largest demographic forces in Canadian society are aging and immigration. Both of these are profoundly altering the political landscape and both of these forces have been favoured CPC fortunes in recent years. Here we will focus on how immigration is altering political fortunes of different parties and speculate as to how this augurs for the future. We will also look at attitudes to immigration itself, how this is evolving in Canada and how this links to party preference (and other factors).
[Ottawa – January 9, 2013] Follow the link below for our complete five-part series titled “Looking Backward, Looking Forward”.
In this series, we examine some of the broad social forces changing our society that have been largely hidden from mainstream discussion or even working in ways opposite to the received wisdom.
Click here for the full report: Looking Backward, Looking Forward – Complete Series (January 9, 2013)
FORCE FOUR: VALUES SLOWLY SHIFTING AWAY FROM RIGHT AS GOVERNMENT DOES OPPOSITE
[Ottawa – January 4, 2013] As we have already recently developed this theme, we will not review it in depth but we will comment more on its implications and connections to some of the other forces. We believe that this force merits discussion for two reasons. First, values are the crucial normative goalposts which define a society and should shape its direction. They reflect what citizens see as right and wrong and what kind of society they would like to hand off to the next generation, how… [More...]