About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

LOOKING BACKWARD, LOOKING FORWARD: PART 1

FIVE BIG FORCES SHAPING OUR SOCIETY

JANUARY 1, 2013

Introduction

On the cusp of another year, it is customary to take stock of the past and what it might mean for the future. There is an ample inventory of newsmakers, events and personalities assembled by the media and pundits. What I wanted to do here is look beyond these more specific things and look for the broader social forces producing really important changes in our society and our future. To qualify for this list, the forces must be beyond the obvious news of the day and they… [More...]

A DIVIDED PUBLIC POSES DEEP BUDGET CHALLENGES – March 5, 2012

BURGEONING CONCERNS WITH INEQUALITY

[Ottawa – March 5, 2012] – Budgets are the most attentively followed and important legislation that Governments produce. In a climate of growing economic anxieties where the Government has staked out the economy as its principal focus, this is even more so. On top of that, we have a federal government reeling from a nasty controversy over a potential vote suppression scandal which has seen its honeymoon period abruptly replaced with the NDP opposition nipping at their heels in the polls. To state that the budget will be important in this context would be a… [More...]

BEYOND THE HORSERACE – COMPLETE SERIES (January 14, 2012)

[Ottawa – January 14, 2012] Follow the link below for our complete six-part series titled “Beyond the Horserace”.

In this series, we examine the changes that have occured since May’s election, the flaws in our political system that were exposed as a result, and the opportunities they present.

Click here for complete six-part series: Beyond the Horserace (January 14, 2012)

Click here for the complete data tables for this series: Data Tables

BEYOND THE HORSERACE – PART 6: Psst! Canada, can we talk?

[Ottawa – January 14, 2012] One of the limitations of current media polling is that the pollster and media client tend to select the topics it wants to talk about and frames the questions in a way that s/he thinks is appropriate. Pollsters typically do so in a fair and balanced manner but, even if that standard is met, the universe of discourse is set by the pollster, not the public. In this exercise, we reverse the usual process and have a statistically representative sample of the public pick the conversations they deem to be the most important. We will… [More...]

BEYOND THE HORSERACE – PART 4: Who do you like?

[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] Following a tough slog through democratic trust and alternative institutional arrangements for the future perhaps a more familiar review of approval ratings can serve as a light interlude before we conclude with Canadians’ predictions for election 2015 (yikes!) and their selected top preferences for national conversations.

Chart 4.1 is fairly self-explanatory. Let’s start with Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Our most recognized leader produces the same polarized responses that we saw on the directional number for the federal government. With 34 per cent approval he slightly exceeds his party’s standing and he enjoys near universal… [More...]

BEYOND THE HORSERACE – PART 5: The Future through a Public Lens

[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] Predictions are indeed hard, especially about the future as Yogi Berra once opined. Yet the public seem to have little difficulty offering their speculations about the next election, however distant it might appear now. Is this the wisdom of crowds, mob psychology, or just wishful thinking? Who knows, but there are some surprising areas of consensus in the Canadian public about 2015, and they don’t look much like the received wisdom in the chattering classes and fifth estate.

Using two different methods, we arrived at basically the same conclusions about the public prognostication for… [More...]

BEYOND THE HORSERACE – PART 3: Democratic Alternatives

POST-PARTY POLITICS?

[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] If democratic malaise is a serious and growing problem in Canada, particularly in the half of the population under our rising median age (now 42), what can and should be done about this? We see that concern with rates of voter decline is muted among those still voting and we see a cleavage on whether this is a serious issue lining up along generational lines. By way of illustration, a modest majority of all Canadians did not support the decision to leave the Kyoto accord but, opposition dramatically outstripped support among those… [More...]

BEYOND THE HORSERACE – PART 2: Trust in Democracy

A NATIONAL CHECK-UP

[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] It will come as little surprise that our review of Canada’s democratic health produces some spotty results. What may be more interesting is what the trend lines are, what seems to be producing trust and mistrust and which aspects of our democracy is seen as most in need of attention. There are some ironies and contradictions as well which will become clearer as we consider the issue of alternatives to the status quo and how prominently issues of democracy reckon in the public hierarchy of preference national conversations. Some ‘alternatives’ may… [More...]

BEYOND THE HORSERACE – PART 1: A New Morning or Just Mourning?

THE LONGER TERM VIEW FROM THE PUBLIC

[Ottawa – January 12, 2012] Is there anything sadder than a pollster without a horserace? The fever pitch of real and imagined perturbations in an electorate vibrating to the vagaries of minority governments has been displaced by the serenity of a clear majority government. Not only are the Conservatives ascendant in the House of Commons, they have a clear majority in the Senate and are refashioning public institutions such as public service, the courts, and the media to support their goal of a new era with Conservatives as the new “natural governing… [More...]

THE NEW REALLY BIG QUESTION – April 27, 2011

[Ottawa – April 27, 2011] – We update our seat projections based on our new three-day sample of nearly 3,000 potential voters. It continues to show a breathtakingly different Parliament in which the Conservative government is reduced to 131 seats but the muscular new NDP have 92 and the Liberals have 63. This new political math would produce a Parliament where the non-Bloc opposition would have 155 seats, a bare majority and 24 more seats than the Conservatives. With a clear advantage on popular vote and seats, what would happen? Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has stated that he requires a… [More...]

VOTER COMMITTMENT – OCTOBER 13, 2008

Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – In order to gauge voter commitment, we have been asking Canadians how certain they are to get out and vote on October 14th.

POST-DEBATE POST-SCRIPT

Television Still King

[OTTAWA – October 7, 2008] – For all the talk of new media and the high-impact role they are playing in this political campaign, the fact is television is king, as it has been for nearly half a century.

VIEWS ON POLLING

Deep Ambivalence About Polls, Despite Increased Consumption & Use

HIGHLIGHTS:

-> Polls are increasingly used for strategic voting (by as many as 1 in

ATTITUDES TO COALITIONS & ALLIANCES

Canadians Say “No” to Party Alliances

[OTTAWA – October 2, 2008] – Although most Canadians expect a minority government, they are not inclined to see formal alliances or coalitions emerge after the election. In many democracies where majorities are uncommon, in Europe for example, smaller parties

PRE-DEBATE SURVEY

Well, At Least Dion Needn’t Worry About Excessive Expectations

[OTTAWA – October 1, 2008] – A miniscule 5% of Canadians expect Stéphane Dion to be the winner in the leaders’ debates tonight and tomorrow evening. Dion has said in the past that he loves being underestimated, and he certainly doesn’t need to worry about high expectations going into these debates, which mark the

ELECTION HARPER’S TO LOSE

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

Timely Harper Election Call Yields Formidable Advantages for the CPC – Including Weak Liberal Leadership

HIGHLIGHTS

National federal vote intention among decided voters: CPC 37%, LPC 24%, NDP 19%, Green Party 10%, and the BQ 6%

Conservatives also have the leadership advantage with Harper seen as “best Prime Minister” (32%), followed by Layton (19%); Dion is a distant third (12%)

Similar scores are given for leader

ELECTION ISSUES

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

Canadians have the economic jitters now, but worry about the environment longer term

HIGHLIGHTS

More than half of Canadians (58%) say they believe Canada is already in a mild economic recession

Ninety per cent of Canadians say that the economy should be among the priority issues in this campaign

Almost two-thirds of Canadians see the issue of global warming as being the most important facing Canada