By Frank Graves
November 26, 2015
The following presentation was delivered to the Forum on Public Opinion Polls from the 2015 Federal Election hosted by the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) on November 26, 2015.
For more information about about the MRIA, please visit their website: http://mria-arim.ca/
The data presented here is drawn from a post-election survey conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology. The field dates for this survey are October 20-23, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,973 Canadian adults aged 18 and… [More...]
[Ottawa – July 17, 2015] There is not much going on out there in summer vacation land, but we do see some modest shifts in our most recent polling. While everyone is focussed on cottages, pools and BBQs, let’s try and set the stage for the inevitable return to what is going to be an exceedingly important and interesting campaign. We will begin by noting what we see as some of the relatively stable and important features of the voter landscape.
First of all, the outcome of the next election, at this stage is as clear… [More...]
…BUT SHOULD WE HAVE BETTER POLLING YARDSTICKS?
[Ottawa – May 7, 2015] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 29th general election of Alberta general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Rachel Notley’s majority victory. There were, however, some incongruities between our last poll and the final election results. We overestimated the Alberta NDP by 3.7 per cent and underestimated the Progressive Conservative Association by 5.3 points. Both differences fall outside the margin of error (albeit barely). Our final poll results for the Wildrose Party, the Alberta Liberal Party… [More...]
PUBLIC WISDOM ON THE CBC, HOCKEY, AND SOCHI (WITH A POLLING THOUGHT EXERCISE)
[Ottawa – February 7, 2014] After years of being in the crosshairs of many Conservatives, the CBC faces some unprecedented challenges. An internal memo from the President spoke of “dark clouds” facing the corporation. The ardently antagonistic rivals at Sun News have recently published an Abacus poll noting that the Canadians are “ready” to sell the CBC. This result is very inconsistent with other polling on the CBC, although it is very consistent with the policy preferences of the sparsely viewed Sun Network… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 31, 2013] Over the last few days, a handful of pundits have meticulously reviewed the results to our latest poll and have raised concerns over the apparent over-representation of university graduates in our sample. Typically, survey results are weighted by age, gender, and region, and now some have suggested that we should also be weighting for education. We would like to take this opportunity to respond to some of these concerns.
In total, 1,377 Canadian adults responded to our survey. After the results were weighted for age, region, and gender, we were left with the… [More...]
Click the link below for a retrospective analysis on public opinion polling during the 2011 federal election.
41st Election: A Polling Retrospective
FRANK GRAVES RESPONDS TO EVALUATING THE POLLS: AN OPEN LETTER TO ONTARIO’S JOURNALISTS BY DARRELL BRICKER AND JOHN WRIGHT
[Ottawa – September 16, 2011] – Darrell Bricker and John Wright have recently taken a pretty harsh scattergun to many of their media polling competitors. While they score a number of direct hits on polling, and the media, they also say some things which are simply unfair. Given the failure of public opinion polls to accurately predict the 2011 election results, the frustration expressed by Mr. Bricker and Mr. Wright is understandable. Some of the claims that have been made… [More...]