[Ottawa - January 14, 2012] Follow the link below for our complete six-part series titled “Beyond the Horserace”.

In this series, we examine the changes that have occured since May’s election, the flaws in our political system that were exposed as a result, and the opportunities they present.

Click here for complete six-part series: Beyond the Horserace (January 14, 2012)

Click here for the complete data tables for this series: Data Tables

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Posted on January 14th, 2012 under Economy, Election Issues, National Results. Comments: None

[Ottawa – January 14, 2012] One of the limitations of current media polling is that the pollster and media client tend to select the topics it wants to talk about and frames the questions in a way that s/he thinks is appropriate. Pollsters typically do so in a fair and balanced manner but, even if that standard is met, the universe of discourse is set by the pollster, not the public. In this exercise, we reverse the usual process and have a statistically representative sample of the public pick the conversations they deem to be the most important. We will… [More...]

Posted on January 14th, 2012 under Election Issues, National Results. Comments: None

[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] Following a tough slog through democratic trust and alternative institutional arrangements for the future perhaps a more familiar review of approval ratings can serve as a light interlude before we conclude with Canadians’ predictions for election 2015 (yikes!) and their selected top preferences for national conversations.

Chart 4.1 is fairly self-explanatory. Let’s start with Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Our most recognized leader produces the same polarized responses that we saw on the directional number for the federal government. With 34 per cent approval he slightly exceeds his party’s standing and he enjoys near universal approval amongst… [More...]

Posted on January 13th, 2012 under Election Issues, National Results. Comments: None

[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] Predictions are indeed hard, especially about the future as Yogi Berra once opined. Yet the public seem to have little difficulty offering their speculations about the next election, however distant it might appear now. Is this the wisdom of crowds, mob psychology, or just wishful thinking? Who knows, but there are some surprising areas of consensus in the Canadian public about 2015, and they don’t look much like the received wisdom in the chattering classes and fifth estate.

Using two different methods, we arrived at basically the same conclusions about the public prognostication for that now… [More...]

Posted on January 13th, 2012 under Election Issues, National Results. Comments: None

POST-PARTY POLITICS?

[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] If democratic malaise is a serious and growing problem in Canada, particularly in the half of the population under our rising median age (now 42), what can and should be done about this? We see that concern with rates of voter decline is muted among those still voting and we see a cleavage on whether this is a serious issue lining up along generational lines. By way of illustration, a modest majority of all Canadians did not support the decision to leave the Kyoto accord but, opposition dramatically outstripped support among those… [More...]

Posted on January 13th, 2012 under Election Issues, National Results. Comments: None

A NATIONAL CHECK-UP

[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] It will come as little surprise that our review of Canada’s democratic health produces some spotty results. What may be more interesting is what the trend lines are, what seems to be producing trust and mistrust and which aspects of our democracy is seen as most in need of attention. There are some ironies and contradictions as well which will become clearer as we consider the issue of alternatives to the status quo and how prominently issues of democracy reckon in the public hierarchy of preference national conversations. Some ‘alternatives’ may be contributing… [More...]

Posted on January 13th, 2012 under Election Issues, National Results. Comments: None

THE LONGER TERM VIEW FROM THE PUBLIC

[Ottawa – January 12, 2012] Is there anything sadder than a pollster without a horserace? The fever pitch of real and imagined perturbations in an electorate vibrating to the vagaries of minority governments has been displaced by the serenity of a clear majority government. Not only are the Conservatives ascendant in the House of Commons, they have a clear majority in the Senate and are refashioning public institutions such as public service, the courts, and the media to support their goal of a new era with Conservatives as the new “natural governing party”. Stephen… [More...]

Posted on January 12th, 2012 under Economy, Election Issues, National Results. Comments: None

[Ottawa – May 1, 2011] – In what has been the most exciting federal election in many years, Campaign 41 is drawing to an exciting and as yet unclear conclusion. The Conservatives are at 34.6 points, while the NDP is three points back at 31.4 and the Liberals at 20.4. The Green Party is at 6.3 and the Bloc have dropped further to a modern low of 5.4 points nationally and a mere 22.8 points in Quebec. Of those who are “certain to vote”, things are tighter still with the Conservative lead reduced to a scant 2.4% (34.8 vs. 32.4… [More...]

Posted on May 1st, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 37

ONTARIO SPLIT AS UNCERTAIN BUT TECTONIC TRANSFORMATION OF POLITICAL LANDSCAPE UNDERWAY

[Ottawa – April 29, 2011] – In what would have been unthinkable at the outset of this campaign, the Canadian political landscape is being profoundly reshaped in ways that are still unclear. What is clear is that Canadians are opting for dramatic change on May 2nd. The Conservatives remain stuck at 34.5 points, well short of the majority that they insisted was essential to ward off the adventure of an untested coalition. The NDP, who began the campaign at a scant 14 points, have now more than doubled their support… [More...]

Posted on April 29th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 19

[Ottawa – April 28, 2011] – Following a frantic flurry of changes, the Canadian electorate appears to have paused to consider where they have arrived in as Campaign 41 winds its way to a shocking conclusion. The Conservatives are strongly ensconced with 34.8 points with a dramatically strengthened NDP in second at 27.5. The Liberals continue to plumb historical depths as they slide to 22.3. The Green Party is significantly reduced from their status entering the final days of the 2008 campaign and the Bloc Quebecois is in danger of sliding to political oblivion in Quebec in what is arguably… [More...]

Posted on April 28th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 9

CONSERVATIVES SUPPORTERS MORE COMMITTED

[Ottawa – April 27, 2011] – After a stunning shift in the political landscape the new patterns observed at the outset of the week are stabilizing although there is still some play in the electorate. The Conservatives remain at 34.0 and the NDP is at 28.1. The Liberals have not been able to reverse their fortunes and are now at 22.9 which may be a new nadir in our polling for the Liberals. The Bloc Quebecois appears to have stopped the bleeding in Quebec (and have even rebounded insignificantly), although the NDP is holding on to a… [More...]

Posted on April 27th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 4

[Ottawa – April 26, 2011] – For the fifth day in a row, we see a pretty stable voter landscape which would have been unimaginable at the outset of the campaign. The Conservative Party is at 33.9 points, which is down from the outset of the campaign and well short of a majority. Only six points back are the burgeoning NDP supporters at 27.9 while the Liberal Party is stuck at sub-Dion levels at 24.0. The Green Party has lost supporters much earlier than in 2008 (mostly to the NDP) and stand at 6.8. The Bloc Quebecois is at 6.0… [More...]

Posted on April 26th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 21

[Ottawa – April 25, 2011] – After several years in a political rut characterized by trench warfare between the Conservatives and the Liberals, Jack Layton and his NDP party appear poised to reshape Canada’s political landscape. With all the necessary provisos and caveats about weekends and how things can still change, we are reporting the results of over 3,000 cases collected from Friday to Sunday which suggest an astonishing shift in the voter landscape from the outset of this campaign. While the Conservatives are still hanging on to a fairly stable (if somewhat diminished) 33.7 front runner position, the NDP… [More...]

Posted on April 25th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 25

JUST WHAT COLOUR(S) OF MINORITY GOVERNMENT ARE WE HEADING FOR?

[Ottawa – April 21, 2011] – As Election 41 grinds it way to an uncertain conclusion, we are seeing some truly surprising developments in the past week or so. Building on a solid if unspectacular rise from the outset of the campaign, Jack Layton’s NDP party is scaling heights not seen since the NDP’s salad days under Ed Broadbent. Moreover, the NDP may be closer to the political elixir of real federal power than they have been since their inception on the federal scene some half century ago. This new dynamic… [More...]

Posted on April 21st, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 22

CONSERVATIVE LEAD WIDENS TO 12.5 POINTS

[Ottawa – April 18, 2011] – The weekends are always difficult times to poll on vote intention but as we are in the final two weeks of the campaign, we have decided to do so. Based on some 2,350 cases from Friday to Sunday, the top line results show the Conservatives at 37.4 – ahead of their end of last week position – and now showing a clear advantage over the Liberals who, at 24.9 points, have fallen back to their position coming out of the 2008 election.

The NDP, meanwhile, continues to follow an upward… [More...]

Posted on April 18th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 2

[Ottawa – April 15, 2011] – At the end of Week 3, our tracking reveals clear patterns in the 41st federal election campaign.

Despite the wildly inconsistent results that have come out of other polling organizations, we are very comfortable with our numbers and the well-behaved patterns that have emerged.

Conservatives: While this week’s debates have had no clear influence on vote intention, the Conservatives have widened their lead over the Liberals from 5.0 points on the eve of the English event to 7.5 points during the two days that followed. Virtually all of the support the Conservative Party picked up came… [More...]

Posted on April 15th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 1

NDP SHOWING STRENGTH

[Ottawa – April 13, 2011] – In polling conducted early this week, voters appear to be backing away from a Conservative majority and are now looking more carefully at other options. In what is the tightest period of the race so far, the 11-point cushion that Conservatives had in the opening days of the campaign has been replaced with a scant 5-point lead.

Their comfortable and seat-efficient Ontario margin of 10 points has basically vanished and, at these numbers, the Conservatives would be looking at a significantly diminished minority.

The Conservatives are now at 33.8 points nationally – down from… [More...]

Posted on April 13th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 13

CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS MOST COMMITTED

[Ottawa – April 8, 2011] – As the race winds its way to the midpoint, we find the poll numbers have returned to the position we had in our poll released the day before the writ was dropped. The similarity of the top line numbers occlude major shifts which have gone on under the surface. There have been very significant changes in the regional and demographic constituencies for the parties. The basic ballot question which will decide the election also appears to be coming into much clearer relief. What isn’t clear is what the final outcome will… [More...]

Posted on April 8th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 8

A CHECK-UP AND PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION OF OUR TRACKING SYSTEM

[Ottawa – April 6, 2011] – While we are completing the calibration and analysis of our new election tracking system, we thought we would offer up a preliminary picture of how the campaign is evolving. Beginning very early Friday, we will be rolling out the results of our new tracking system with our partners at iPolitcs. There are some interesting findings which we will share today and we want to signal some of the more interesting diagnostic analysis that we are preparing for week end. We are also sharing a specific test… [More...]

Posted on April 6th, 2011 under National Results. Comments: 8