EDUCATION EMERGING AS CRUCIAL FAULT LINE IN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

[Ottawa – September 2, 2010] – In a surprising development, we see the political landscape now  in a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives. There is clear evidence as to why the Conservatives have squandered a comfortable 11 point lead at the beginning of the summer; and there are interesting hints as to what issues and forces may shape the fall season and any ensuing election over the next year.

In the last week of polling, the Conservatives and the Liberals were in an almost exact tie at 29.4% and 29.1%, respectively… [More...]

Posted on September 2nd, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

DEFECTING UNIVERSITY EDUCATED VOTERS PROPEL GRITS INTO A MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE RACE

[Ottawa – August 19, 2010] – Our most recent poll – particularly the last week of polling – has changed little from our last reporting period. The Conservatives have widened their lead from one to five points and now lead 32.5 to 27.9. While this change is only marginally significant, it pulls the Conservatives out of a statistical tie into a small but significant lead. The real value of the poll is in examining the patterns of the last two months in order to assess whether the media brouhaha… [More...]

Posted on August 19th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 4

CENSUS SENSELESS?

[Ottawa – August 5, 2010] – In a surprisingly active summer, there are some interesting developments in the political landscape. The relatively comfortable lead that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives had secured in the aftermath of the Royal Visit, the G20 summit, and Canada Day appears to have evaporated in this unusually hot Canadian summer. Typically, little distracts Canadians from beer and barbeques in the all too short Canadian summer. Yet the Conservatives find their 11-point lead of mid-July virtually eliminated. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives fail to crack the pretty humble 30-point barrier in our last week of polling… [More...]

Posted on August 5th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 2

WIDENED GAP ON UNIVERSITY EDUCATION MAY REFLECT CENSUS CONTROVERSY

[Ottawa – July 22, 2010] – The latest poll shows little change from our last poll. We suspect that BBQs are receiving more attention than the long form in voters’ minds these days. There are, however, some signs that the long form controversy is altering the demographic bases of voter support (merely suggestive at this time).

Overall, the political world seems to be fading from public minds as we head into the summer. The undecided have risen significantly to an unusually high level which likely reflects picnic and beach preoccupation rather than real… [More...]

Posted on July 22nd, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 2

LIBERALS AT LOWEST POINT SINCE IGNATIEFF ASSUMED LEADERSHIP

[Ottawa – July 8, 2010] – Given cessation of Parliament, the polling numbers are surprisingly active.

As Parliament closed, the Liberal Party were close to the margin of error behind the Conservatives. This week, they have found themselves nearly 11 points down and exploring a basement level support for their party.

The Conservative are the only clear beneficiaries of this Liberal swoon and now would have a legitimate minority government in an election were held today.

The Liberals should be particularly alarmed about newfound Conservative strength in Ontario, where they now have a sizeable lead. Even… [More...]

Posted on July 8th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 9

[Ottawa – June 24, 2010] - There is little to distinguish the most recent poll from a pattern which appears to be increasingly locked in. With the summer now here, stingy voters have no clear choice as to who should rule if there were to be an election now.

The Conservatives are hanging on to a very narrow margin of advantage, which barely exceeds the margin of error of the poll. Worse, at 31 points, they are decisively down from the last election and well short of the majority territory they found themselves in last fall. The cumulative effects of a… [More...]

Posted on June 24th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 4

LOWEST EVER SCORE FOR DIRECTION OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – June 17, 2010] - In a virtually unprecedented political landscape, no federal party can break the rather humble 30.5 percent level. As a vivid indicator of the temper of the times, the electorate have bestowed the lowest ever rating of federal direction. It is not the “statistical” significance of the modest week to week fluctuations which is interesting; it is the overall trajectory and patterns of the last several weeks which are revealing. These patterns are highly significant and paint a rather bleak picture for both the Liberals and the Conservatives.

It… [More...]

Posted on June 17th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 1

DIRECTION OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TIES RECORD LOW POINT

[Ottawa – June 10, 2010] - In an often repeated pattern, we see the electorate gently recoiling after bestowing a large lead on the Conservative Party. This has produced a much tighter race. We are also seeing a continued decline in confidence in the direction of the federal government, which is now in sub-40 territory.

These patterns are clearly worrisome trends for the government. Although the Liberal Party continues to be stuck at very low levels, the recent trajectory for the Conservatives has seen them move out of the range where they were approaching… [More...]

Posted on June 10th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

LIBS MIRED IN MID-20S; NDP COMPETITIVE IN SOME REGIONS; GREENS MAY MAKE B.C. FOUR-WAY RACE

[Ottawa – June 3, 2010] - After a small and short-lived surge above the 33% mark which has been elusive for all the parties in 2010, the ruling Conservatives have slipped back into the doldrums in this week’s EKOS tracking poll.

However, there is not much comfort in the poll for the opposition Liberals who remain stuck in the mid-twenties, near to their worst-ever election performance (in terms of votes) in 2008.

“There has been a lot of buzz lately about Jack Layton and the NDP,” said EKOS… [More...]

Posted on June 3rd, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 1

OPPOSITION PARTIES FAIL TO CAPITALIZE ON ANTI-GOVERNMENT SENTIMENT

[Ottawa – May 27, 2010] - EKOS’ tracking poll this week shows the Conservatives enjoying an 8-point lead over the second-place Liberals, the continuation of a trend of several months that would likely lead to another Conservative minority government.

“The Liberals are not much of a threat to Stephen Harper’s grip on power at the moment,” said EKOS President Frank Graves, “even though a healthy plurality of Canadians believes the government is headed in the wrong direction. No doubt whatever discontent people feel with the government is mitigated somewhat by the widespread belief that… [More...]

Posted on May 27th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

ANTI-DRILLING SENTIMENT LESS STRONG IN ALBERTA AND THE ATLANTIC REGION

[Ottawa – May 20, 2010] - In light of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, most Canadians want offshore drilling here in Canada to be suspended until the government can review the risks, or stopped altogether.

Respondents to an EKOS poll commissioned by the CBC program Power and Politics were asked to choose from four options: permanently stopping offshore drilling, suspending it pending a safety review, continuing it pending a safety review, or carrying on as normal.

Fewer than one-in-ten Canadians felt that offshore drilling should continue as normal in the… [More...]

Posted on May 20th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

CONSERVATIVES CUT DEEPLY INTO CITIES

[Ottawa – May 20, 2010] - The gap between the governing Conservatives and the second place Liberals is now fractions of a percentage point short of 10%. Although Conservative growth and Liberal slippage has been glacial through the spring, the direction of support for the two parties since the winter is clear: Conservatives up, Liberals down.

“The fact that this change has occurred slowly over more than three months gives us confidence that this is a real and entrenched trend,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “The opening of the gap between the two parties, who were essentially… [More...]

Posted on May 20th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

CANADIANS LIKE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT NOT OF THE GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – May 13, 2010] - While the Conservative Party managed to attract just over a third of Canadians this week, the fact that no party has reached 34 points in over four months is a dramatic sign of the weakness of Canada’s main parties. Although the growth from last week was extremely small, it is apparent that the Conservatives have, over recent months, created a significant lead over the second-place Liberals.

“As recently as February, the two parties were in a virtual tie,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “Although the… [More...]

Posted on May 13th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 2

AND MOST CANADIANS THINK MORE WOMEN IN POLITICS WOULD HAVE A POSITIVE EFFECT

[Ottawa – May 6, 2010] - A poll conducted for exclusive release by the CBC program Power and Politics illustrates some big differences in the view men and women have of federal politics.

In fact, most Canadians think that if there were more women leaders in federal politics, it would have a positive effect, though (surprise, surprise) women were more likely to feel this way than men. Men were about equally divided between those who thought women leaders would have a positive effect and those who thought it would… [More...]

Posted on May 6th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 1

LIBERALS CONTINUE TO SWOON

[Ottawa – May 6, 2010] - A significant gap has opened between the party preferences of men and women, though it is not the gender gap that once was.

Stephen Harper’s Tories have often, though not always, appealed more to men than to women in recent years, and that pattern has re-asserted itself. There is now a dramatic, nearly ten percentage point, difference between Conservative support among men (38.0%) and women (28.1%).

“This gap, while unusually large, is not unprecedented,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “What is startling is that the Liberals, who usually have something like a mirror… [More...]

Posted on May 6th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

SPEAKER’S RULING MAY NOT TEMPT ANY PARTY TO FORCE AN ELECTION

[Ottawa – April 29, 2010] - There is again talk of a parliamentary showdown, following this week’s ruling by the Speaker of the House of Commons on the release of documents relating to the Afghan detainees. But the last poll taken before the ruling suggests there are reasons for both the two major parties to be wary of any brinksmanship that might force an election.

While the Conservatives are in first place, they continue to track well below their performance in the last election with less that a third of Canadians… [More...]

Posted on April 29th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 7

PARADOXICALLY, LIBERALS DECLINE

[Ottawa – April 22, 2010] - As quickly as it appeared, the Guergis affair appears to be disappearing as a political factor. It’s not that Canadians aren’t noticing or don’t think it’s serious. About 40% of Canadians aren’t following this issue, but the rest are with at nearly one in five paying close attention. So not as riveting in the rest of the country as it is North of the Queensway in Ottawa, but it certainly is registering with a large number of voters.

Here is where it gets more confusing.

Of the 60% of Canadians who are following the… [More...]

Posted on April 22nd, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

GUERGIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS

[Ottawa – April 22, 2010] - If the Liberals were briefly vaulted into a virtual tie with the Conservatives on the strength of public outrage over the Guergis affair, they have been restored to their previous position in a short week.

We continue to see the virtually unprecedented situation of an electorate which has, for 16 consecutive polls, failed to anoint any party with more than 33 points. And while the Conservatives may take some comfort at a little new breathing space, at 32 points, they are far short of where they were when they were in the last… [More...]

Posted on April 22nd, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 2

BUT PREVENTION STILL MORE IMPORTANT

[Ottawa – April 19, 2010] - This report is part of an ongoing program to test how Canadians are arrayed on a dimension of social conservatism versus progressive attitudes. Our research is aimed at not only trying to understand where Canadians stand today, but how things are evolving. This research is an attempt to provide a more formal assessment of some of the theses recently put forward by Preston Manning that Canadian society was drifting to the right.

This week, we examined the issue of how people view the ultimate goal of the criminal justice system. As… [More...]

Posted on April 19th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: 1