LARGELY NEGATIVE REACTIONS, BUT CONSERVATIVES MAY BE SEEING A ‘TRUMP BUMP’
By Frank Graves
[Ottawa – November 25, 2016] As the dust settles on the rather unlikely victory of Donald Trump to the highest office in the world, Canadians are trying to make sense of what this new normal will mean for them, the country, and the world. They are also trying to grasp the best route forward for the federal government with a very different U.S. regime than expected. There is considerable anxiety about these issues but there is also some surprising resonance in some places.… [More...]
GOVERNMENT IS BACK
[Ottawa – October 24, 2016] The Liberals continue to defy the laws of political gravity. With the party at a staggering 47 points, the protracted honeymoon clearly signals something deeper than mere regime change. At 26 points, the Conservatives are still very much hanging around. While this may not seem terribly impressive on the surface, they retain a solid base, which is especially impressive given that they are operating under an interim leader. The NDP, however, looks to be in deep trouble – they have gone from clear contenders for government to being on the… [More...]
IF YOU BUILD IT THEY WILL COME
[Ottawa – October 23, 2016] The most ubiquitous transformation of our society has been the digital revolution. Whether this has had a net beneficial impact on standard of living or democratic health is unclear. It is the case that this third industrial revolution has occurred contemporaneously to a period of economic stagnation and a declining trust in government and democracy. What is clear is that the internet is the new universal mass media and that nearly everyone is online daily. Increasingly we do our shopping online, we bank online, and we… [More...]
[Ottawa – July 23, 2016] The summer has seen an unusual amount of drama ranging from the shocking Brexit result through racial violence in the United States and a seemingly endless barrage of serial atrocities; most recently the horrific carnage in Nice. A coup attempt in Turkey and civil war in Syria all contribute to the sense of danger which seems endemic to our age.
We also see the American voters flirting with the idea of Donald Trump as President of the United States, and several analysts have drawn the common linkages between the Brexit vote… [More...]
[Ottawa – July 21, 2016] Canada’s political landscape appears locked in place as Canadians begin turning their attention to their cabins and barbeques. The Liberals are holding steady at 46 points, territory they have enjoyed for six consecutive polls stretching back to December. These results represent an interesting contrast to the Conservatives who, according to our polls, broke the 40-point mark only twice in their nearly ten years in office (once in 2008 and again in 2009). The NDP, which earlier this year seemed in danger of falling into fourth place behind the Green… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 26, 2016] We begin with a look back at the aftermath of the 2011 election. The Conservatives had just won a convincing majority government. The NDP, a party that had never garnered more than 20 per cent of the popular vote, made history by forming the Official Opposition for the first time. Meanwhile, the Liberals had been nearly annihilated and, after watching their seat tally decline for four consecutive elections, seemed to be spiralling into oblivion.
In the wake of the 2011 election, we saw mass confusion and misinterpretation of the future, with… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 19, 2016] We could speculate that the recent rise in trust in government might dampen the urgency associated with electoral reform, which leads to the question of whether it would be worth the thorny problem of opening up electoral reform at this time. Our research shows that the public at this time are still uncomfortable with the current first-past-the-post system, preferring instead some modified form of proportional representation. On the question of electoral reform and whether a referendum would be necessary, there is no clear consensus. In fact, quite the opposite… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 18, 2016] The Liberals remain at stratospheric levels. The dip we saw in our last poll may be receding and the party is going strong at 44 points. The Conservatives are fairly stable, but at 29 points, they are well back of the Liberals. At 12 points, the NDP sits in a distant third place.
What is remarkable is the uniformity of the Liberal Party’s support across various demographics. Liberal support is consistent across all gender and age cohorts. These results are dramatically different from the fractured landscape that we saw… [More...]
LIBERALS STRONG, BUT FALLING BACK TO EARTH
[Ottawa – March 31, 2016] Looking at vote intention polls three and half years from an election is like having a fling; amusing, but doesn’t mean much. There are, however, some striking features relevant to the upcoming political calendar.
For the most part, the latest poll resembles the election outcome. Yes, the Liberals are up almost three points from October 19th, but they seem to be coming to Earth after enjoying a stratospheric lead. The Conservatives are basically stuck at their 2015 election result, although they are up somewhat… [More...]
CBC commissioned EKOS Research Associates to conduct a survey of Canadians’ views on the economy, energy, and the environment.
Click here for the full report: Full Report (March 17, 2016)
Click here for the data tables: Data Tables (March 17, 2016)
Overview of Findings
Results reveal that Canadians are torn between a rising environmental ethic and deep anxieties about the economy. While there is strong sympathy for greater regulation and investment in a post carbon future, there is equally broad recognition that our energy resources are a critical ingredient of our economic future… [More...]
[Ottawa – January 26, 2016] In a new poll, we find the new government enjoying a remarkable and almost unprecedented level of support from the Canadian public. This is even more impressive when we consider the backdrop of continued gloom about the economy with less than one in five feeling the economy is growing. It is clear that the public are extending some patience to the new government in this ocean of goodwill. We will also show that amidst this otherwise unremittingly dark economic outlook, there is a significant spike in medium term optimism. The public will see… [More...]
AN UNPREDICTABLE PATH TO A PREDICTABLE OUTCOME
By Frank Graves
This article was published in partnership with the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP). Full article available here.
[Ottawa – January 11, 2016] The 42nd federal election was a unique and historically important election. The public judgement expressed in this election reveals some clear features of our changing society. And by exploring the true meaning and significance of this election, we hope to highlight how these results point to a broader and fairly significant redirection of Canadian society as a whole.… [More...]
By Frank Graves
November 26, 2015
The following presentation was delivered to the Forum on Public Opinion Polls from the 2015 Federal Election hosted by the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) on November 26, 2015.
For more information about about the MRIA, please visit their website: http://mria-arim.ca/
The data presented here is drawn from a post-election survey conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology. The field dates for this survey are October 20-23, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,973 Canadian adults aged 18 and… [More...]
A MIXED BLESSING FOR JUSTIN TRUDEAU?
[Ottawa – November 11, 2015] The 42nd federal election produced a result that seemed extremely unlikely at the outset of the campaign. In this brief note, we look at two fairly simple indicators of how the election was received and what perceived impacts the election will have on the country. We will look at basic satisfaction with the election and how it compares with the previous one. We will then turn from the rear view mirror to the future. What are the expectations about the future? How do citizens hope or imagine… [More...]
…BUT ONLY IF THEY DON’T SEE IT
This survey was conducted on behalf of La Presse
The full article is available on their website here.
[Ottawa – November 6, 2015] Support for decriminalizing marijuana is up insignificantly from last year, but our long-term tracking shows a clear shift in favour of loosening Canada’s marijuana laws over the last decade. Fully 71 per cent do not believe possession of small amounts of marijuana should be a crime, a dramatic change from 2000 when Canadians were evenly split on the issue. With three of the four federalist… [More...]
SENIORS MOVE BACK TO LIBERALS IN A BIG WAY
[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] In a major development, the weekend reveals a late but clear movement to the Liberals. At 36 points, the Liberals have a four-point lead over the Conservatives and are now poised to recapture power after nearly a decade in the political wilderness. This movement is rooted in a shift of the critical seniors’ cohort and a strengthening of their lead in Ontario. It may well be that Hurricane Hazel was a key force in both of these movements.
LIBERALS OPENING UP DAYLIGHT?
[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] With less than 24 hours to go until the polls open, it appears as though vote intentions are relatively fixed, although the Liberals may be opening up a bit of headroom. At 34.3 points, the Liberals hold a statistically insignificant lead over the Conservatives, who are at 32.6 per cent. The NDP is at 21 points and there are no signs of any last minute shifts.
Quebec has transitioned into an unclear four-way race. With just a seven-point spread separating the NDP, the Bloc, the Liberals, and… [More...]
EVIDENCE POINTS TO LONG MONDAY NIGHT NAIL-BITER
[Ottawa – October 17, 2015] We have upped our game in trying to discern the winner of what is shaping up to be a historically important federal election. We have run parallel HD-IVR and live interviewer surveys. We have significantly increased the sample size in the home stretch. We have double- and triple-checked the sample diagnostics. We have even done formal experiments with different ballot questions. Despite all of this, we still see the final outcome as very fuzzy.
Nothing is much different in this more richly resourced polling… [More...]