About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

How the Yawning Chasm across Conservative and Progressive Canada Masks the Real Prospects for Harper’s Conservatives

RECONSIDERING THE ROLE OF VALUES AND EMOTIONAL ENGAGEMENT

[Ottawa – September 11, 2015] Over the past week there has been an outpouring of reactions to the Syrian refugee crisis that run from concern to horror. The searing image of the drowned three year old pushed the issue to the centre of media attention at a critical time – in the midst of a federal election campaign. The ensuing reaction to this has been a pretty broad sense that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were emphatically on the wrong side of this and that it would have a catastrophic impact on… [More...]

Three-Way Tie as Voters Try and Sort Out Who Can Solve the Economy

BALANCED BUDGET ISSUE MAY BE SORTING LIBERAL AND NDP FORTUNES IN REVERSE DIRECTIONS

[Ottawa – September 4, 2015] There have been some movements in an electorate that is becoming reluctantly engaged in a now month-old campaign that they are loosely acknowledging. If there was a sense that the Duffy scandal was beginning to awaken voters and weigh down on the Conservative fortunes, that sense has pretty well evaporated over the past couple of weeks. Attention deficit disordered voters appear to have at least temporarily moved on and the Conservatives now find themselves in a three-way tie with the… [More...]

Duffy Awakening Slumbering Electorate

TRUDEAU’S LIBERALS GETTING THEIR GROOVE BACK?

[Ottawa – August 28, 2015] Voters are awaking from their summer slumber and noticing that they have been asked to follow what is going to be a very divisive and acrimonious campaign. At 34 points, the NDP maintains a clear and stable lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have dropped to 28 points. The Liberals, at 27 points, are doing much better than a month ago and are statistically tied for second place (and are not far off from the lead). The Green Party remains at six points.

Fractured Country Produces Tight and Unpredictable Race

NDP EMERGING AS THE HOME FOR THE MOST DISAFFECTED WITH INCUMBENT

[Ottawa – August 14, 2015] Nothing definitive has emerged from this week’s polling. The race remains very tight with the NDP having plateaued, but they are still hanging on to a slight lead over a pretty moribund Conservative Party. The Liberals are showed some signs of life and may be closing the gap somewhat.

We saw that the debate did generate attention and impacts but the effects dissipated as we got further away from that event in time. But the debate did have at least… [More...]

Midsummer Haze Clouds Voter Outlook

NDP LEADS AS PUBLIC GIVES SOME OF LOWEST DIRECTIONAL MARKS TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IN OVER A YEAR

[Ottawa – July 31, 2015] Nothing much is clear as we complete our midsummer check-up on the state of the largely distracted voters. There are, however, some interesting developments that set the stage for what will be a much more fiercely enjoined debate which will commence with the upcoming debate on August 6th. These become even more important on the eve of what could be an early and unusually protracted campaign.

The vote intention numbers show the NDP… [More...]

Clear Forces, Highly Unpredictable Outcomes

[Ottawa – July 17, 2015] There is not much going on out there in summer vacation land, but we do see some modest shifts in our most recent polling. While everyone is focussed on cottages, pools and BBQs, let’s try and set the stage for the inevitable return to what is going to be an exceedingly important and interesting campaign. We will begin by noting what we see as some of the relatively stable and important features of the voter landscape.

First of all, the outcome of the next election, at this stage is as clear… [More...]

Race Narrowing Again

LIBERAL PARTY REBOUNDS, NOW TIED WITH CONSERVATIVES WHO ARE IN DANGER OF SLIPPING INTO THIRD

[Ottawa – July 3, 2015] The political landscape appears to be shifting in subtle but important ways. The Liberals seem to have stopped the bleeding and are now statistically tied with the floundering Conservatives who are over 12 points back from their majority achievement in 2011. The NDP continues to hold on to a narrow but significant lead which would be more decisive save for the entry of Gilles Duceppe into the Quebec race. An elevated ‘other’ reflects dissatisfaction with any of the… [More...]

Race Tightens to Three-Way Race Again as NDP Slips

[Ottawa – June 19, 2015] The NDP continues to hold on to an insignificant lead, but they have been brought back to Earth by the return of Gilles Duceppe in Quebec and a mild resuscitation of the flagging Liberal and Conservative fortunes. There is some encouraging news for the Liberals who have seen a mild rebound, which is possibly linked to the major announcements of early week. This rebound has left the Liberal Party only five points out of the lead, half the distance they encountered last week.

The brief ascension of the NDP to… [More...]

NDP Continues to Rise as Liberals and Conservatives Continue to Slide

OPPOSITION TO BILL C-51 NOW A CLEAR MAJORITY

[Ottawa – June 12, 2015] For five of our last six polls, the NDP has improved its standing with Canadian voters and the party now stands at 33.6 per cent, a 16-point improvement over its modern low just four months ago. The NDP have nearly double the support that they did this time out from the 2011 election. Support for the Conservatives and the Liberals, meanwhile, continues to languish with the two parties standing at 27 points and 23 points, respectively.

The NDP sits just three-points ahead of… [More...]

NDP and Mulcair Continue to Rise

HARPER’S APPROVAL RATING CRATERS WHILE MULCAIR HITS RECORD HIGH

[Ottawa – June 5, 2015] Just as it appeared that a locked in three-way tie was setting in, we see the NDP opening up some daylight between them and the Conservatives stuck at sub-30 and the listless Liberals that are drifting downward in a gentle but cumulatively significant erosion of their position. The NDP should be jubilant and the Liberals very concerned. It may be, however, that the truly bad news is for the Conservatives. This is evident if one takes a deeper look at the trajectories and underlying… [More...]

The Debate about the Debates

PUBLIC DEEPLY SKEPTICAL ABOUT MOTIVES FOR ALTERNATIVE DEBATES

[Ottawa – June 3, 2015] The debates are the most viewed event of any campaign. While there are mixed views about the actually efficacy of the debates in shaping electoral outcomes, there is no question that they are the pivotal spectacle of the campaign. Our new polling confirms the salience of the debates as a resource for presenting the leaders and their platforms to voters in the later stages of the campaign.

Claimed deficiencies in the traditional debate model have been raised as a basis for calling for… [More...]

Logjam Continues as Canadians Become More Receptive to Innovative Political Approaches

[Ottawa – May 29, 2015] The NDP has fallen back slightly and the Liberals have risen slightly; all of these changes are of little (if any) statistical significance, but the net result is to confirm a new normal of a three-way race. What is most striking about this new normal is the frankly tepid level of enthusiasm for any of the above. The NDP are the clear movers and beneficiaries of the changes over the past few months, but they are still sub-thirty and slightly below their 2011 result. The Liberals are up significantly from 2011, but have… [More...]

Victims of Communism

RESOUNDING THUMBS DOWN ON WHAT IS CONSIDERED A WASTEFUL AND UNNECESSARY PROJECT

[Ottawa – May 22, 2015] First, the good news for the government: most Canadians are blissfully unaware of the government’s plans to erect a giant monument to the victims of communism on the front lawn of the Supreme Court. This location will skilfully occlude that despised institution with a huge celebration of things arguably dear to the government’s re-election plans and ideologically consistent with their cold war era views of Godless commies. Now the bad news: when presented with the concept and graphic illustrations, a representative… [More...]

A New Normal

UNDERSTANDING A NEW THREE-WAY FEDERAL RACE

[Ottawa – May 22, 2015] We have seen the NDP in the lead more than once during the last three years and we have also seen tight three-way races. But we have not seen that since Justin Trudeau assumed leadership of the Liberal Party and today’s horserace looks strikingly different than what we saw five months out from the last election. In this update, we are trying to do three things. First, we would like to establish that this is a real and important shift. Second, we will offer some reasoned conjecture… [More...]

Federal Race Transforms into Three-Way Tie

EPHEMERAL OR REAL?

[Ottawa – May 14, 2015] In a striking new development, the federal horserace has morphed into a virtual three-way tie with just three points separating, the Conservatives, the NDP, and the Liberals. Interestingly, we saw similar results about two years ago, when all three parties were within five points of each other.

The NDP has jumped five percentage points over the last week and the story here appears to be one of NDP success, rather than a decline in Conservative or Liberal fortunes (who are both just slightly down from their rolling average over the… [More...]

Budget Fails to Propel Conservatives

[Ottawa – May 8, 2015] Despite a heavily publicized budget, the Liberals appear to be closing the gap and are now tied with the Conservatives, who are now at 30.3 points and have seen a gentle erosion in their support since their peak of 35 points in early February. The current government effectively “sold the farm”, as it were, pulling out all of the stops and sparing no expense in marketing what was clearly a highly visible budget. In the end, however, the budget was not well received. Conservative fortunes have stalled, virtually eliminating any chance of an early election… [More...]

Budget Lands with a Thud as Voters’ Intentions Locked In

[Ottawa – May 1, 2015] Overall, vote intention seems frozen in amber as the three lead parties have been stuck oscillating within tiny ranges over the past few weeks. While nothing is changing in aggregate, there are interesting shifts in certain segments which seem to reflect the impact of a highly visible budget that was forcefully communicated to Canadians through all of the communication tools available to an incumbent. Yet even now, we see that attention is flagging. The Conservatives are hanging on to a just barely significant lead over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals – well short of the… [More...]

Conservatives Hang on to Narrow Lead

[Ottawa – April 24, 2015] There is nothing really of note in the vote intention numbers this week. We see the usual array of fluctuations in the regional and demographic samples, but the overall pattern is one of stasis. One gets the feeling that the public will only truly begin to engage now that the budget has been delivered. The coming month will be highly revealing as to who is in a good position to triumph in the fall.

At this time, we would like to pause and look at a couple of critical issues which often get obscured… [More...]

Harper once again in scant lead in muddy see saw voter contest

THE IRONIC POLITICAL JOURNEY OF THE BELEAGUERED MIDDLE CLASS

[Ottawa – April 17, 2015] There isn’t a lot to note in a rather moribund political landscape. Stephen Harper’s small but significant lead is quite impressive in light of the preponderance of seemingly threatening forces arrayed against him.

Our latest tracking shows that confidence in national direction is teetering to historic lows, matching the historic negativism surrounding the direction of the country and the government leading it. Outlook on the economy is nothing short of gloomy and his personal approval levels are the worst of… [More...]

Liberals rebound in Quebec as Harper’s emotional connections with voters weaken

[Ottawa – April 10, 2015] If only eight percent of voters shifted their current vote intention, we would have a dead heat across the three lead parties. The voter landscape is shifting in ways that do not appear to favour Stephen Harper’s Conservatives who now find themselves under 29 points for the first time since the security bounce from last October propelled them into a small but significant lead (which now appears to have evaporated). They now (insignificantly) trail Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and see less than a six-point margin over a clearly rejuvenated NDP.

Despite the sliding fortunes for… [More...]