About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 fgraves@ekos.com

Canada 150: The National Mood and the New Populism

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Gauging the national mood at Canada 150 in a carefully constructed sample of nearly 6,000 Canadians, this piece assesses how Canada is looking at its political options and how this connects to its economic outlook and a variety of other new forces.

[Ottawa – June 24, 2017] The voter landscape doesn’t mean much as we are still two years away from an election; but it does reveal some interesting new features. Most notably, we see a tightened race with the Conservatives enjoying a post-leadership bounce from the election of Andrew Scheer. The Liberals maintain a slight… [More...]

Canadians Respond to Surprising Victory of Donald Trump

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LARGELY NEGATIVE REACTIONS, BUT CONSERVATIVES MAY BE SEEING A ‘TRUMP BUMP’

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – November 25, 2016] As the dust settles on the rather unlikely victory of Donald Trump to the highest office in the world, Canadians are trying to make sense of what this new normal will mean for them, the country, and the world. They are also trying to grasp the best route forward for the federal government with a very different U.S. regime than expected. There is considerable anxiety about these issues but there is also some surprising resonance in some places.… [More...]

One Year Out: Where Do Canadians Stand?

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GOVERNMENT IS BACK

[Ottawa – October 24, 2016] The Liberals continue to defy the laws of political gravity. With the party at a staggering 47 points, the protracted honeymoon clearly signals something deeper than mere regime change. At 26 points, the Conservatives are still very much hanging around. While this may not seem terribly impressive on the surface, they retain a solid base, which is especially impressive given that they are operating under an interim leader. The NDP, however, looks to be in deep trouble – they have gone from clear contenders for government to being on the… [More...]

Political Landscape Stable as Canadians Enjoy the Summer Weather

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[Ottawa – July 21, 2016] Canada’s political landscape appears locked in place as Canadians begin turning their attention to their cabins and barbeques. The Liberals are holding steady at 46 points, territory they have enjoyed for six consecutive polls stretching back to December. These results represent an interesting contrast to the Conservatives who, according to our polls, broke the 40-point mark only twice in their nearly ten years in office (once in 2008 and again in 2009). The NDP, which earlier this year seemed in danger of falling into fourth place behind the Green… [More...]

Bold is Back

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HARPER AND MULCAIR NOT

[Ottawa – June 14, 2016] The purpose of this report is to provide a retrospective on how citizens are scoring the parties and leaders after the first session of Parliament.

It has been nearly eight months since Canadians handed the Trudeau-led Liberals a majority government and yet the party continues to soar. At nearly 45 points, the party is showing no signs of waning. These numbers represent a truly breathtaking transformation from the political landscape just one year ago when the Liberals seemed to be headed to another third-place finish. They have… [More...]

Liberals Still Feeling the Love, NDP not so Much

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[Ottawa – April 18, 2016] The Liberals remain at stratospheric levels. The dip we saw in our last poll may be receding and the party is going strong at 44 points. The Conservatives are fairly stable, but at 29 points, they are well back of the Liberals. At 12 points, the NDP sits in a distant third place.

What is remarkable is the uniformity of the Liberal Party’s support across various demographics. Liberal support is consistent across all gender and age cohorts. These results are dramatically different from the fractured landscape that we saw… [More...]

Thomas Mulcair Faces Uncertain Future as NDP Languishes

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LIBERALS STRONG, BUT FALLING BACK TO EARTH

[Ottawa – March 31, 2016] Looking at vote intention polls three and half years from an election is like having a fling; amusing, but doesn’t mean much. There are, however, some striking features relevant to the upcoming political calendar.

For the most part, the latest poll resembles the election outcome. Yes, the Liberals are up almost three points from October 19th, but they seem to be coming to Earth after enjoying a stratospheric lead. The Conservatives are basically stuck at their 2015 election result, although they are up somewhat… [More...]

Justinphilia Continues Despite Deep Anxieties about the Economy

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[Ottawa – January 26, 2016] In a new poll, we find the new government enjoying a remarkable and almost unprecedented level of support from the Canadian public. This is even more impressive when we consider the backdrop of continued gloom about the economy with less than one in five feeling the economy is growing. It is clear that the public are extending some patience to the new government in this ocean of goodwill. We will also show that amidst this otherwise unremittingly dark economic outlook, there is a significant spike in medium term optimism. The public will see… [More...]

National Mood Soars as Direction of Federal Government Hits Highest Levels since 2001

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TRUDEAUMANIA 2.0?

[Ottawa – December 11, 2015] A year end check up on the national reception to the new Liberal government is producing nothing short of a dramatic reversal of years of torpor and division about the federal government. Confidence in the country has shot up almost 20 points to 61 per cent positive since the last read when the Harper government was sitting. More significantly, confidence in the direction of the federal government is almost as high as national direction at 58 per cent and this is the highest score for federal direction since 2001. For a… [More...]

Deadlock Broken, Liberals Surging

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SENIORS MOVE BACK TO LIBERALS IN A BIG WAY

[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] In a major development, the weekend reveals a late but clear movement to the Liberals. At 36 points, the Liberals have a four-point lead over the Conservatives and are now poised to recapture power after nearly a decade in the political wilderness. This movement is rooted in a shift of the critical seniors’ cohort and a strengthening of their lead in Ontario. It may well be that Hurricane Hazel was a key force in both of these movements.

Penultimate Check-Up on Election 42

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LIBERALS OPENING UP DAYLIGHT?

[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] With less than 24 hours to go until the polls open, it appears as though vote intentions are relatively fixed, although the Liberals may be opening up a bit of headroom. At 34.3 points, the Liberals hold a statistically insignificant lead over the Conservatives, who are at 32.6 per cent. The NDP is at 21 points and there are no signs of any last minute shifts.

Quebec has transitioned into an unclear four-way race. With just a seven-point spread separating the NDP, the Bloc, the Liberals, and… [More...]

And the Winner is… We Don’t Know

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EVIDENCE POINTS TO LONG MONDAY NIGHT NAIL-BITER

[Ottawa – October 17, 2015] We have upped our game in trying to discern the winner of what is shaping up to be a historically important federal election. We have run parallel HD-IVR and live interviewer surveys. We have significantly increased the sample size in the home stretch. We have double- and triple-checked the sample diagnostics. We have even done formal experiments with different ballot questions. Despite all of this, we still see the final outcome as very fuzzy.

Nothing is much different in this more richly resourced polling… [More...]

Stalemate Continues

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CONSERVATIVES HOLD SLIGHT ADVANTAGE AMONG EARLY VOTERS

[Ottawa – October 16, 2015] As we enter the final weekend before Election Day, vote intentions appear to be settling in. At 34 points, the Liberals hold a marginal lead over the Conservatives who are at 33 points. At 23 points, the NDP are well back in terms of popular support, but the rather efficient distribution of their support means they will likely still be looking at a fairly impressive seat count on Monday.

The Liberals continue to lead in the key battleground of Ontario, although there is some… [More...]

Marginally Significant Narrowing of Liberal Lead

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RACE NOT OVER

[Ottawa – October 15, 2015] As we sit less than four days out from Election Day, there is precious little to report. While we thought at the beginning of the week that the race would be clarified by now, it isn’t. The gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed slightly and the Liberals’ advantage is no longer statistically significant. The NDP remains in third place, although they are still a major player in this election.

Regionally, Ontario continues to look very positive for the Liberals, while Quebec is looking very positive… [More...]

Liberals Maintain Lead Over Conservatives

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NDP REBOUND?

[Ottawa – October 14, 2015] We’re less than five days away from Election Day and the Liberals are maintaining a small but stable four-point lead over the second-place Conservative Party. The NDP is in third place, but the party is up almost four points over yesterday and may be showing signs of resuscitation after its decline over the last month.

The NDP is doing significantly better in Quebec, where the bloom is off the rose for the Conservative Party, who at one point seemed to be gaining ground over cultural and values concerns. Ontario… [More...]

Potentially Significant Movements After Long Weekend

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MIDWEEK POLLING SHOULD BE VERY TELLING

[Ottawa – October 13, 2015] As we enter the final week of the campaign, the Liberals now hold a significant lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have had a significant drop which, if confirmed tomorrow, could spell the end of their pursuit of a stable government. The NDP has stopped its bleeding and may be rebounding slightly and, although their standing on vote intention has been greatly diminished in recent weeks, the distribution of their support is fairly seat efficient.

The Liberal Party has made sizeable gains in both Ontario and Quebec… [More...]

Tie Continues

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CHECK BACK NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF TURKEY DELIBERATIONS HAVE BROKEN STALEMATE

[Ottawa – October 11, 2015] The statistical logjam continues as we enter the final week of the election campaign. The Liberal and Conservative parties continue to see-saw back and forth for the lead. Indeed, the only clear movement over the last few days has been a decline in NDP support.

Contrary to other polls, we continue to see a three-way deadlock in Quebec. Ontario, meanwhile, is now a very unpredictable two-way contest with the NDP finding itself in an increasingly distant third-place. However… [More...]

Liberals and Conservative in Dead Heat

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[Ottawa – October 9, 2015] We have just ten days to go until Election Day and, while nothing is definitive, there are signs that voters’ intentions are beginning to lock in. After rising steadily for five consecutive days, Liberal support seems to have levelled out and the party remains locked in a tie with the Conservative Party. While ten days is nearly an eternity by election campaign standards, it does not appear that the NDP is still in the race.

The regional results are largely stable from yesterday. For those obsessing with the rank ordering of… [More...]

Liberals Now Have Slight Lead

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[Ottawa – October 8, 2015] The Liberals have been on a sustained rise for nearly a week and they now hold a statistically insignificant lead. At 34.1 points, the party is enjoying its highest support levels since February. The Conservatives are close behind at 32.5 points, while the NDP remains mired in the low 20s.

The most notable regional shifts are Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals have moved into a clear lead in Ontario where the NDP seem to be fading. In Quebec, the Liberals are clearly on the rise. The Conservatives continue to do well… [More...]

After 20-Day Lead, Conservatives Now Find Themselves in a Statistical Tie

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A TALE OF TWO PROVINCES?

[Ottawa – October 7, 2015] After holding a statistically significant lead for 20 consecutive days, the Conservative Party’s lead has shrunk to just under two points and the party is now statistically tied with the Liberal Party who, not even two months ago, were in danger of being squeezed out of what had looked like a Conservative-NDP race. The NDP, meanwhile, is not making up any ground and may in fact be falling back slightly in what is increasingly a two-way race.

There are two interesting regional developments. The first is… [More...]