About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

After 20-Day Lead, Conservatives Now Find Themselves in a Statistical Tie

A TALE OF TWO PROVINCES?

[Ottawa – October 7, 2015] After holding a statistically significant lead for 20 consecutive days, the Conservative Party’s lead has shrunk to just under two points and the party is now statistically tied with the Liberal Party who, not even two months ago, were in danger of being squeezed out of what had looked like a Conservative-NDP race. The NDP, meanwhile, is not making up any ground and may in fact be falling back slightly in what is increasingly a two-way race.

There are two interesting regional developments. The first is… [More...]

Stable but Narrowing Conservative Lead as NDP in a Holding Pattern Well Back of Leaders

[Ottawa – October 6, 2015] The Conservatives hold a stable but narrowing lead over the Liberal Party which has been moving up in the past week. The NDP, meanwhile, has declined and the party is plateaued right now.

There has been some confusion regarding the differing results being published by various pollsters in recent weeks. However, we have seen a clear and sustained Conservative lead and we are confident that this is not some statistical anomaly. We saw Conservative Party starting to rise on the 12th of September, moving into a clear lead on the 16th… [More...]

Conservatives Hold Lead in Slightly Narrowed Race

[Ottawa – October 2, 2015] With just 17 days until Election Day, the Conservative Party holds a clear (albeit somewhat narrowed) lead. Our poll of last week was controversial at the time as no one else was showing a clear Conservative lead. Our internal daily tracking (now being shared after the fact) shows that the Conservative Party has held the lead for 15 consecutive days and they now find themselves in roughly the same range as where they were at this stage of the 2011 election campaign.

Conservatives Swing into Lead

IDEA OF COALITION GOVERNMENT REMAINS POPULAR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE CONSERVATIVE BASE

This survey was sponsored by La Presse. The full article is available here.

[Ottawa – September 24, 2015] In the span of one week, what was a three-way race has become a Conservative lead with the Liberals and NDP trailing. Whether these movements are the result of the government’s handling of the Syrian refugee crisis, the announcement of a budget surplus, Harper’s debate performance, his challenging of the Niqab ruling, or something else is unclear, but the party is recovering the constituencies that were key to… [More...]

A Mid-Campaign Check-Up

WHAT ARE THE FORCES SORTING THE ELECTORATE AND WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR PARTIES IN THE HOME STRETCH?

[Ottawa – September 17, 2015] As one of the most protracted campaigns in political history lurches to the midpoint, it might be helpful to take stock of what we know. We begin by noting that we don’t have much idea of what to expect on October 19th, but we do know a few things not to expect. We also have a clearer idea of the key forces that are underpinning voter choice (and which ones aren’t). It is also clear… [More...]

How the Yawning Chasm across Conservative and Progressive Canada Masks the Real Prospects for Harper’s Conservatives

RECONSIDERING THE ROLE OF VALUES AND EMOTIONAL ENGAGEMENT

[Ottawa – September 11, 2015] Over the past week there has been an outpouring of reactions to the Syrian refugee crisis that run from concern to horror. The searing image of the drowned three year old pushed the issue to the centre of media attention at a critical time – in the midst of a federal election campaign. The ensuing reaction to this has been a pretty broad sense that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were emphatically on the wrong side of this and that it would have a catastrophic impact on… [More...]

Three-Way Tie as Voters Try and Sort Out Who Can Solve the Economy

BALANCED BUDGET ISSUE MAY BE SORTING LIBERAL AND NDP FORTUNES IN REVERSE DIRECTIONS

[Ottawa – September 4, 2015] There have been some movements in an electorate that is becoming reluctantly engaged in a now month-old campaign that they are loosely acknowledging. If there was a sense that the Duffy scandal was beginning to awaken voters and weigh down on the Conservative fortunes, that sense has pretty well evaporated over the past couple of weeks. Attention deficit disordered voters appear to have at least temporarily moved on and the Conservatives now find themselves in a three-way tie with the… [More...]

Duffy Awakening Slumbering Electorate

TRUDEAU’S LIBERALS GETTING THEIR GROOVE BACK?

[Ottawa – August 28, 2015] Voters are awaking from their summer slumber and noticing that they have been asked to follow what is going to be a very divisive and acrimonious campaign. At 34 points, the NDP maintains a clear and stable lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have dropped to 28 points. The Liberals, at 27 points, are doing much better than a month ago and are statistically tied for second place (and are not far off from the lead). The Green Party remains at six points.

Fractured Country Produces Tight and Unpredictable Race

NDP EMERGING AS THE HOME FOR THE MOST DISAFFECTED WITH INCUMBENT

[Ottawa – August 14, 2015] Nothing definitive has emerged from this week’s polling. The race remains very tight with the NDP having plateaued, but they are still hanging on to a slight lead over a pretty moribund Conservative Party. The Liberals are showed some signs of life and may be closing the gap somewhat.

We saw that the debate did generate attention and impacts but the effects dissipated as we got further away from that event in time. But the debate did have at least… [More...]

Midsummer Haze Clouds Voter Outlook

NDP LEADS AS PUBLIC GIVES SOME OF LOWEST DIRECTIONAL MARKS TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IN OVER A YEAR

[Ottawa – July 31, 2015] Nothing much is clear as we complete our midsummer check-up on the state of the largely distracted voters. There are, however, some interesting developments that set the stage for what will be a much more fiercely enjoined debate which will commence with the upcoming debate on August 6th. These become even more important on the eve of what could be an early and unusually protracted campaign.

The vote intention numbers show the NDP… [More...]

Clear Forces, Highly Unpredictable Outcomes

[Ottawa – July 17, 2015] There is not much going on out there in summer vacation land, but we do see some modest shifts in our most recent polling. While everyone is focussed on cottages, pools and BBQs, let’s try and set the stage for the inevitable return to what is going to be an exceedingly important and interesting campaign. We will begin by noting what we see as some of the relatively stable and important features of the voter landscape.

First of all, the outcome of the next election, at this stage is as clear… [More...]

Race Narrowing Again

LIBERAL PARTY REBOUNDS, NOW TIED WITH CONSERVATIVES WHO ARE IN DANGER OF SLIPPING INTO THIRD

[Ottawa – July 3, 2015] The political landscape appears to be shifting in subtle but important ways. The Liberals seem to have stopped the bleeding and are now statistically tied with the floundering Conservatives who are over 12 points back from their majority achievement in 2011. The NDP continues to hold on to a narrow but significant lead which would be more decisive save for the entry of Gilles Duceppe into the Quebec race. An elevated ‘other’ reflects dissatisfaction with any of the… [More...]

Race Tightens to Three-Way Race Again as NDP Slips

[Ottawa – June 19, 2015] The NDP continues to hold on to an insignificant lead, but they have been brought back to Earth by the return of Gilles Duceppe in Quebec and a mild resuscitation of the flagging Liberal and Conservative fortunes. There is some encouraging news for the Liberals who have seen a mild rebound, which is possibly linked to the major announcements of early week. This rebound has left the Liberal Party only five points out of the lead, half the distance they encountered last week.

The brief ascension of the NDP to… [More...]

NDP Continues to Rise as Liberals and Conservatives Continue to Slide

OPPOSITION TO BILL C-51 NOW A CLEAR MAJORITY

[Ottawa – June 12, 2015] For five of our last six polls, the NDP has improved its standing with Canadian voters and the party now stands at 33.6 per cent, a 16-point improvement over its modern low just four months ago. The NDP have nearly double the support that they did this time out from the 2011 election. Support for the Conservatives and the Liberals, meanwhile, continues to languish with the two parties standing at 27 points and 23 points, respectively.

The NDP sits just three-points ahead of… [More...]

NDP and Mulcair Continue to Rise

HARPER’S APPROVAL RATING CRATERS WHILE MULCAIR HITS RECORD HIGH

[Ottawa – June 5, 2015] Just as it appeared that a locked in three-way tie was setting in, we see the NDP opening up some daylight between them and the Conservatives stuck at sub-30 and the listless Liberals that are drifting downward in a gentle but cumulatively significant erosion of their position. The NDP should be jubilant and the Liberals very concerned. It may be, however, that the truly bad news is for the Conservatives. This is evident if one takes a deeper look at the trajectories and underlying… [More...]

Logjam Continues as Canadians Become More Receptive to Innovative Political Approaches

[Ottawa – May 29, 2015] The NDP has fallen back slightly and the Liberals have risen slightly; all of these changes are of little (if any) statistical significance, but the net result is to confirm a new normal of a three-way race. What is most striking about this new normal is the frankly tepid level of enthusiasm for any of the above. The NDP are the clear movers and beneficiaries of the changes over the past few months, but they are still sub-thirty and slightly below their 2011 result. The Liberals are up significantly from 2011, but have… [More...]

A New Normal

UNDERSTANDING A NEW THREE-WAY FEDERAL RACE

[Ottawa – May 22, 2015] We have seen the NDP in the lead more than once during the last three years and we have also seen tight three-way races. But we have not seen that since Justin Trudeau assumed leadership of the Liberal Party and today’s horserace looks strikingly different than what we saw five months out from the last election. In this update, we are trying to do three things. First, we would like to establish that this is a real and important shift. Second, we will offer some reasoned conjecture… [More...]

Federal Race Transforms into Three-Way Tie

EPHEMERAL OR REAL?

[Ottawa – May 14, 2015] In a striking new development, the federal horserace has morphed into a virtual three-way tie with just three points separating, the Conservatives, the NDP, and the Liberals. Interestingly, we saw similar results about two years ago, when all three parties were within five points of each other.

The NDP has jumped five percentage points over the last week and the story here appears to be one of NDP success, rather than a decline in Conservative or Liberal fortunes (who are both just slightly down from their rolling average over the… [More...]

Budget Fails to Propel Conservatives

[Ottawa – May 8, 2015] Despite a heavily publicized budget, the Liberals appear to be closing the gap and are now tied with the Conservatives, who are now at 30.3 points and have seen a gentle erosion in their support since their peak of 35 points in early February. The current government effectively “sold the farm”, as it were, pulling out all of the stops and sparing no expense in marketing what was clearly a highly visible budget. In the end, however, the budget was not well received. Conservative fortunes have stalled, virtually eliminating any chance of an early election… [More...]

Budget Lands with a Thud as Voters’ Intentions Locked In

[Ottawa – May 1, 2015] Overall, vote intention seems frozen in amber as the three lead parties have been stuck oscillating within tiny ranges over the past few weeks. While nothing is changing in aggregate, there are interesting shifts in certain segments which seem to reflect the impact of a highly visible budget that was forcefully communicated to Canadians through all of the communication tools available to an incumbent. Yet even now, we see that attention is flagging. The Conservatives are hanging on to a just barely significant lead over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals – well short of the… [More...]