About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Race Narrowing Again


[Ottawa – July 3, 2015] The political landscape appears to be shifting in subtle but important ways. The Liberals seem to have stopped the bleeding and are now statistically tied with the floundering Conservatives who are over 12 points back from their majority achievement in 2011. The NDP continues to hold on to a narrow but significant lead which would be more decisive save for the entry of Gilles Duceppe into the Quebec race. An elevated ‘other’ reflects dissatisfaction with any of the… [More...]

Race Tightens to Three-Way Race Again as NDP Slips

[Ottawa – June 19, 2015] The NDP continues to hold on to an insignificant lead, but they have been brought back to Earth by the return of Gilles Duceppe in Quebec and a mild resuscitation of the flagging Liberal and Conservative fortunes. There is some encouraging news for the Liberals who have seen a mild rebound, which is possibly linked to the major announcements of early week. This rebound has left the Liberal Party only five points out of the lead, half the distance they encountered last week.

The brief ascension of the NDP to… [More...]

NDP Continues to Rise as Liberals and Conservatives Continue to Slide


[Ottawa – June 12, 2015] For five of our last six polls, the NDP has improved its standing with Canadian voters and the party now stands at 33.6 per cent, a 16-point improvement over its modern low just four months ago. The NDP have nearly double the support that they did this time out from the 2011 election. Support for the Conservatives and the Liberals, meanwhile, continues to languish with the two parties standing at 27 points and 23 points, respectively.

The NDP sits just three-points ahead of… [More...]

NDP and Mulcair Continue to Rise


[Ottawa – June 5, 2015] Just as it appeared that a locked in three-way tie was setting in, we see the NDP opening up some daylight between them and the Conservatives stuck at sub-30 and the listless Liberals that are drifting downward in a gentle but cumulatively significant erosion of their position. The NDP should be jubilant and the Liberals very concerned. It may be, however, that the truly bad news is for the Conservatives. This is evident if one takes a deeper look at the trajectories and underlying… [More...]

Logjam Continues as Canadians Become More Receptive to Innovative Political Approaches

[Ottawa – May 29, 2015] The NDP has fallen back slightly and the Liberals have risen slightly; all of these changes are of little (if any) statistical significance, but the net result is to confirm a new normal of a three-way race. What is most striking about this new normal is the frankly tepid level of enthusiasm for any of the above. The NDP are the clear movers and beneficiaries of the changes over the past few months, but they are still sub-thirty and slightly below their 2011 result. The Liberals are up significantly from 2011, but have… [More...]

A New Normal


[Ottawa – May 22, 2015] We have seen the NDP in the lead more than once during the last three years and we have also seen tight three-way races. But we have not seen that since Justin Trudeau assumed leadership of the Liberal Party and today’s horserace looks strikingly different than what we saw five months out from the last election. In this update, we are trying to do three things. First, we would like to establish that this is a real and important shift. Second, we will offer some reasoned conjecture… [More...]

Federal Race Transforms into Three-Way Tie


[Ottawa – May 14, 2015] In a striking new development, the federal horserace has morphed into a virtual three-way tie with just three points separating, the Conservatives, the NDP, and the Liberals. Interestingly, we saw similar results about two years ago, when all three parties were within five points of each other.

The NDP has jumped five percentage points over the last week and the story here appears to be one of NDP success, rather than a decline in Conservative or Liberal fortunes (who are both just slightly down from their rolling average over the… [More...]

Budget Fails to Propel Conservatives

[Ottawa – May 8, 2015] Despite a heavily publicized budget, the Liberals appear to be closing the gap and are now tied with the Conservatives, who are now at 30.3 points and have seen a gentle erosion in their support since their peak of 35 points in early February. The current government effectively “sold the farm”, as it were, pulling out all of the stops and sparing no expense in marketing what was clearly a highly visible budget. In the end, however, the budget was not well received. Conservative fortunes have stalled, virtually eliminating any chance of an early election… [More...]

Budget Lands with a Thud as Voters’ Intentions Locked In

[Ottawa – May 1, 2015] Overall, vote intention seems frozen in amber as the three lead parties have been stuck oscillating within tiny ranges over the past few weeks. While nothing is changing in aggregate, there are interesting shifts in certain segments which seem to reflect the impact of a highly visible budget that was forcefully communicated to Canadians through all of the communication tools available to an incumbent. Yet even now, we see that attention is flagging. The Conservatives are hanging on to a just barely significant lead over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals – well short of the… [More...]

Conservatives Hang on to Narrow Lead

[Ottawa – April 24, 2015] There is nothing really of note in the vote intention numbers this week. We see the usual array of fluctuations in the regional and demographic samples, but the overall pattern is one of stasis. One gets the feeling that the public will only truly begin to engage now that the budget has been delivered. The coming month will be highly revealing as to who is in a good position to triumph in the fall.

At this time, we would like to pause and look at a couple of critical issues which often get obscured… [More...]

Harper once again in scant lead in muddy see saw voter contest


[Ottawa – April 17, 2015] There isn’t a lot to note in a rather moribund political landscape. Stephen Harper’s small but significant lead is quite impressive in light of the preponderance of seemingly threatening forces arrayed against him.

Our latest tracking shows that confidence in national direction is teetering to historic lows, matching the historic negativism surrounding the direction of the country and the government leading it. Outlook on the economy is nothing short of gloomy and his personal approval levels are the worst of… [More...]

Liberals rebound in Quebec as Harper’s emotional connections with voters weaken

[Ottawa – April 10, 2015] If only eight percent of voters shifted their current vote intention, we would have a dead heat across the three lead parties. The voter landscape is shifting in ways that do not appear to favour Stephen Harper’s Conservatives who now find themselves under 29 points for the first time since the security bounce from last October propelled them into a small but significant lead (which now appears to have evaporated). They now (insignificantly) trail Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and see less than a six-point margin over a clearly rejuvenated NDP.

Despite the sliding fortunes for… [More...]

If Canada Is So down, Why Is Stephen Harper So Up?

[Ottawa – April 2, 2015] The discipline of a fixed election date is increasingly drawing voter attention and we are seeing a pretty stable vote intention landscape. There are, however, some paradoxical disconnections between key trends in the dominant issues and concerns of Canadians and the recent relative success of Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. In short, the public now see their economy in a recession and give the government lousy marks on broad national direction. The dominant media issues of terror and security are no longer tracking in the government’s favour and the Prime Minister has the… [More...]

Narrow Conservative Lead in a Newly Three-Way Race


[Ottawa – March 27, 2015] Our latest polling shows an insignificant but continued decline in Liberal fortunes. The Liberals are now below 29 points for the first time in a long time and the long-term trend is not positive. The Conservatives, while down from a high of 35 points, now enjoy a small but statistically significant lead based on the Liberal decline.

The real story here, however, may be a gradual but significant rebound in NDP fortunes, who have climbed from below 18 points… [More...]

Liberals Have Slight Lead as Harper Losing Edge on Values

Worst ever projection forward last week; this week, things are equally bad looking back

[Ottawa – March 20, 2015] This week, there is not much new to report on the vote intention front. The Liberals have bounced back to 32 points, while the Conservatives have dropped to 30, their lowest point so far this year. It is worth noting that this represents a net four-point shift for the Conservatives (from a two-point lead to a two-point deficit) and certainly bears watching; however, they are not far off from their average showing over the past few months and we… [More...]

Voters Stuck


[Ottawa – March 13, 2015] It’s a painfully dull week on the vote intention front and there is little to report as the Conservatives and the Liberals seesaw endlessly back and forth for the lead. It is anecdotally noteworthy that the Liberals are at their lowest point since July 2013, but they’re only slightly off from their average showing over the past few months and they’re just two points shy of the lead.


The Revenge of the Forgotten?

Understanding the role of the elderly and poorly educated in the shifting voter landscape

[Ottawa – March 6, 2015] On first inspection, there is really nothing much new to note this week. The Conservatives have a slight lead, but this is likely a blip, not a real trend. There are, however, four really interesting and important evolving stories under this deceptively placid surface:

First, the new normal of a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals is almost exclusively a product of the terror and security file. The more daunting issues of a stagnant economy, arrested progress… [More...]

Signs of Life from Moribund NDP?


[Ottawa – February 27, 2015] Well, it’s well short of a wave and not very crushing, but the NDP seems to be the only mover in an otherwise frozen voter landscape. Whether this new Orange Hiccough will develop into anything more impressive remains to be seen; but the NDP has risen from the depths of high teens to 22 points and there is some alternative evidence that they may be doing a bit better than that (our live interviewer test shows that they receive more of the Bloc vote than is recorded to our more impersonal robot)… [More...]

Conservatives and Liberals Locked in Dead Heat


[Ottawa – February 20, 2015] The only thing hot about frigid Canada right now is the dead heat capturing the political landscape. There are some movements, but they are more of the twitch variety than structural movements. At the fringes, the electorate seems to be lurching around like a drunken monkey, but the new normal of a deadlocked Conservative/Liberal race seems to be a stable undercurrent. The Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie at thirty two points each, with the NDP trailing at 18.

Conservatives Slide Slightly: Is the Terror Card Losing Force?

[Ottawa – February 13, 2015] In a week blissfully free of any new terror atrocities, it appears that the security wave which propelled Stephen Harper into a clear lead has lost momentum. The Conservatives have declined three points and the Liberals have risen (an insignificant two points). In examining the demographic and regional shifts, which are modest, it fits with the hypothesis that the lower salience of security in a week with no beheadings or burnings is the factor underlying this modest but statistically significant shift.