About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Signs of Life from Moribund NDP?

ORANGE HICCOUGH!

[Ottawa – February 27, 2015] Well, it’s well short of a wave and not very crushing, but the NDP seems to be the only mover in an otherwise frozen voter landscape. Whether this new Orange Hiccough will develop into anything more impressive remains to be seen; but the NDP has risen from the depths of high teens to 22 points and there is some alternative evidence that they may be doing a bit better than that (our live interviewer test shows that they receive more of the Bloc vote than is recorded to our more impersonal robot)… [More...]

Conservatives and Liberals Locked in Dead Heat

ECONOMY TEMPORARILY TAKING A BACK SEAT TO SECURITY AND CULTURE?

[Ottawa – February 20, 2015] The only thing hot about frigid Canada right now is the dead heat capturing the political landscape. There are some movements, but they are more of the twitch variety than structural movements. At the fringes, the electorate seems to be lurching around like a drunken monkey, but the new normal of a deadlocked Conservative/Liberal race seems to be a stable undercurrent. The Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie at thirty two points each, with the NDP trailing at 18.

Conservatives Slide Slightly: Is the Terror Card Losing Force?

[Ottawa – February 13, 2015] In a week blissfully free of any new terror atrocities, it appears that the security wave which propelled Stephen Harper into a clear lead has lost momentum. The Conservatives have declined three points and the Liberals have risen (an insignificant two points). In examining the demographic and regional shifts, which are modest, it fits with the hypothesis that the lower salience of security in a week with no beheadings or burnings is the factor underlying this modest but statistically significant shift.

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Conservatives Now Polling Higher than in Final Stages of 2011 Campaign

WILL HARPER SEIZE A TIME-STAMPED OPPORTUNITY TO WIN ANOTHER MANDATE?

[Ottawa – February 5, 2015] Any doubts about the authenticity and durability of the Conservative Party’s improvement in political fortunes from last fall can now be effectively dispelled. The Conservatives have erased a 12-point Liberal lead and now enjoy a modest but stable and apparently growing lead of three points. The 35-point level is there best poll since 2011 and it is higher than where we had them in the final stages of the 2011 election campaign, which resulted in a majority victory. Although these trends have been gentle… [More...]

Landscape Frozen as We Enter Election Year

[Ottawa – January 16, 2015] The political landscape appears as frozen as Canada is. The Liberals hold a slight but statistically significant lead, while the Conservatives appear to have stabilized at 31 points, which is good news for a party that hadn’t broken 30 points in two years. So all in all, there isn’t much going on as we enter a new election year. Nevertheless, there are some interesting signals and harbingers worth watching. And sometimes, the absence of movement is notable in itself.

In particular, there are two fundamentally different views on the economy that will be critical… [More...]

Final Update 2014: Harper’s late year bubble may have burst?

[Ottawa – December 23, 2014] In our final poll of 2014 the Liberals have rebounded somewhat to open up a small but significant four-point lead. This ensures that the Liberals will complete the year with never once surrendering the lead and in a position which nearly doubles their disastrous outing in 2011. While the Conservatives have drawn into a very competitive position the bounce that they received from the security episodes of the late fall appears to be fading. The next few months of what will be an increasingly intense pre-campaign period will tell us whether the CPC surge was… [More...]

It Is Neck and Neck as We Head into Election Year

[Ottawa – December 15, 2014] Yet another new normal has set into the Canadian political landscape as we head into an election year. Some unexpected events have altered the last normal which saw the rejuvenated Liberal Party – led by Justin Trudeau – clearly in the driver’s seat and on the cusp of what would likely have been a majority government (had those numbers persisted to Election Day). A renewed security focus and other events following the shootings in Ottawa have produced a virtual deadlock between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Through a combination of propitious events and sound… [More...]

Dramatically Tightened Race as Conservatives Crack 30-Barrier for First Time Since Late 2012:

CLEAR TILT TO A SECURITY AGENDA AS THE DRIVER

[Ottawa – November 7, 2014] The political landscape looks very different in the aftermath of the shootings of two weeks ago. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have seen their fairly solid and stable 12-point lead collapse into a much less comfortable three-point lead. A longstanding shift away from the security agenda as a priority has seen a dramatic rebalancing of the security/civil liberty fulcrum. This has propelled Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party to heights it hasn’t seen in nearly two years and redrawn the political calculus around election timing. The Liberals and the… [More...]

Race Tightens as We See Security Shifts in a More Anxious Public?

[Ottawa – October 31, 2014] The impacts of the tragic deaths of two Canadian soldiers appear to be affecting the political landscape in a highly significant fashion. While not entirely unexpected, the clarity and significance of the effects may be altering the political calculus around an early election.

From our latest poll, the following points are clear:

  1. The race has tightened significantly with the Liberal lead now cut in half and the Conservative Party now clearly ahead of the NDP.
  2. While his approval rating remains mired below 30 points, Mr. Harper has seen some softening of

One Year Out: A New Normal with Considerable Room for Further Change

[Ottawa – October 19, 2014] It is exactly one year to the day until the 2015 election and the country remains in a funk, with unusually poor ratings of both national and federal government direction. Outside of the diminished Conservative base, the vast majority think both the country and the federal government are moving in the wrong direction. While our most recent poll has shown a slight uptick in federal direction, is not meaningful and the Conservative Party remains mired at 26 points in vote intention.

Liberals Continue to Ride High While NDP Move Up; CPC Moribund at Sub-25

MODERN LOWS FOR NATIONAL DIRECTIONAL APPROVAL AS CITIZENS SEEK A “BOLD NEW VISION”

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 1, 2014] In a major new survey of public attitudes and values, we find a pretty stable political landscape which is increasingly unreceptive to another Stephen Harper government. Not only would the government be in no position to aspire to repeat its 2011 success, it may not even achieve leader of the opposition with these numbers. While we find this scenario unlikely, the continued flagging of Conservative Party fortunes now renders this a real possibility. Indeed, Stephen Harper’s regal… [More...]

Political Landscape Turning Bleak for Stephen Harper

[Ottawa – August 10, 2014] As part of a pretty comprehensive diagnostic poll on a range of current issues, we have conducted an update of the political landscape in Canada. There is nothing particularly remarkable about these results, but put in context with the overall time series which precedes it, and some of the other more probing questions we will be releasing later, this poll really does not augur well for the Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party.

This poll does, however, reinforce the notion that the now profound lead enjoyed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is far from… [More...]

If You Can’t Even Get a Dead Cat Bounce Out of This, Your Nine Lives May Be Up

CONSERVATIVES REMAIN LOCKED BELOW 30 POINTS DESPITE RECENT STRING OF HELPFUL SURPRISES

[Ottawa – May 2, 2014] The period of the past few weeks has been an unusually auspicious one for Stephen Harper and his government. The more or less regular cacophony of critical commentary which has characterised the past year of his regime’s dealings with media, opposition, and critics was temporary displaced by a series of surprising events.

First, the untimely and tragic death of Jim Flaherty and the suspension of typical parliamentary invective was replaced with a dignified, non-partisan celebration of his life and achievements including… [More...]

What is Really Going on with the Federal Political Landscape?

A CAREFUL LOOK AT THE FAULT LINES AND TRAJECTORIES

[Ottawa – April 11, 2014] Using an unusually large random probability sample (4,134 Canadian adults), which covers the on- and offline segments of Canada’s population, as well as both those who rely on landlines and cell phones, we can chart where the voter landscape is right now. Our data also provide methods for analyzing voter mobility since the last election. Coupled with basic barometers of approval and dominant issue tracking, we can get an excellent fix on where the voters are today and how they arrived where they are today… [More...]

Closer Race as Parliament Begins – January 30, 2014

ETHICS AND ACCOUNTABILITY COULD BE PIVOTAL ISSUE IN NEXT ELECTION

[Ottawa – January 30, 2014] In our latest poll, the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a near tie. At just under 30 points, the Conservative Party is nipping at the heels of the gently sliding Liberals. who hold a narrow three-point lead which disappears when we turn to our likely voter model. The NDP remains in third place, but they are holding steady at 24 and they are within striking distance of both parties

Political Landscape Freezes with Winter Cold – December 19, 2013

LESS THAN HALF OF CANADIANS SEE THEMSELVES AS MIDDLE CLASS

[Ottawa – December 19, 2013] As temperatures plummet, the political landscape appears to have frozen in place, with the Liberals holding a steady six-point lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are closing out an annus horribilis and are mired at a historic low of 26 points. The NDP is in third place at 23 per cent.

A somewhat resurgent Green Party (having recently doubled their contingent of MPs) is now capturing nearly one in ten voters, which is one of few glimmers of good news for reeling Conservatives, who benefit… [More...]

Update on Federal Vote Intention – October 30, 2013

ADDENDUM TO OCTOBER 29 RELEASE

Click here for the latest federal vote intention numbers: Federal Vote Intention (October 30, 2013)

Liberals Widen Lead on Eve of Throne Speech

CONFIDENCE IN NATIONAL DIRECTION NEARS ALL-TIME LOW

[Ottawa – October 16, 2013] Three months ago, things were looking up for the federal Conservatives. The fireworks and revelry of Canada Day were drumming up confidence in national direction and, with the media’s preoccupation with Senate scandals fading away with the summer heat, the Conservative Party pulled its way into a statistical tie with the newly resurrected Liberals.

It seems, however, that with the onset of fall and a renewed focus on federal affairs, Conservative fortunes have drifted away along with the summer. The Liberals now hold a commanding 10-point… [More...]

A Midsummer Checkup – July 18, 2013

LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT CANADIANS ARE PAYING ATTENTION TO A PLACID POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

Click here for the full report: Full Report (July 18, 2013)

[Ottawa – July 18, 2013] Nearly 3,000 Canadians generously put down their BBQ tools last week and gave their views on a political landscape which doesn’t seem to be producing much interest or movement. Those breathlessly waiting public response to the latest iteration of the Harper Cabinet will have to look elsewhere as this poll was concluded toward the end of last week. But here is a bold prediction. There will be little if… [More...]

EKOS Poll: May 2013

May 2013

Click here for a PDF version of these charts: EKOS Poll (May 2013)

This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. We used a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research.

The field dates for this survey are May 22-26, 2013. In total, a random sample of 3,318 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 2,662 decided voters). The margin of error… [More...]