TIME TO TAKE THE DISCRETIONARY OUT OF DEMOCRACY?

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 21, 2011] – In something of a nadir, the recent Ontario Election, in which a number of big issues were on the table, couldn’t summon the participation of even half of the citizenry. Have we passed the brink from democracy to oligarchy? While on pattern with a disturbing downward trajectory in voter participation, this movement into the realm where the majority of citizens aren’t voting may be a wakeup call for those who think that elections shouldn’t becoming a fringe activity. What may make matters worse is that… [More...]

Posted on October 24th, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves, Ontario. Comments: None

[OTTAWA – October 7, 2011] – Ontario’s 2011 election was exciting and offered a number of surprises and we at EKOS are pleased that not only did we accurately project the popular vote, we believe we did a good job in charting the direction of the election. For instance, we were the first to call a Liberal victory in our September 27th release.

We learned a number of important lessons from the May 2nd federal election and we have invested a great deal of time and resources into tweaking our model to more accurately reflect the varying voter turnout rates among… [More...]

Posted on October 7th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: None

… AND A FEW COMMENT ON WHY THIS ISN’T OUR MOST IMPORTANT POLL

[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (evening)] – In our final poll, we offer two sets of numbers: all eligible voters and those we believe are most likely to vote. We don’t do this in the interest of doubling our chances of getting it right. Our best guess at a forecast is the most likely voter number, We do, however, think the other number is at least as important for other reasons and that the final closeness of polling numbers to the outcome isn’t best yardstick of “good” polling.

Good… [More...]

Posted on October 5th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: None

[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (morning)] – In what would have been unthinkable as little as a week ago, McGuinty’s Liberals appear headed towards a majority. Our three-day roll-up of more than 2,000 Ontario residents puts the Ontario Liberal Party at 39.0 per cent, a full nine points ahead of the Progressive Conservative Party who now stand at 29.7 per cent. The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, is at 23.1 points and the Green Party is sitting at 6.6.

We now turn to the question of what happened. Just ten days ago, our polls showed the Ontario Liberals with a small (albeit statistically… [More...]

Posted on October 5th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: 1

[Ottawa – October 4, 2011] – In the final stages of the Ontario Election, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have opened up a clear and, at this point, likely insurmountable lead over their rivals. At 39.1 points, they now have a full ten point advantage over the flagging Progressive Conservative Party who have fallen under 30 at 29.1 points. The NDP are stuck at 24.5, which seems to rule out their balance of power role in a possible minority situation and the Green Party is sitting at 6.0 points. In fact, barring some unforeseen late shifts, it would appear that Mr. McGuinty… [More...]

Posted on October 4th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: None

DEBATE HAD LITTLE IMPACT

[Ottawa – October 3, 2011] – In our most recent roll up of roughly 1,200 eligible voters in Ontario, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal Party is opening up a stable and widening lead over rivals Hudak and Horwath. While the patterns that we have seen over the last week show that the debate has had no discernable impact on the fortunes of the three parties, the Ontario Liberals appear to be moving ahead slightly while the NDP appears to be wobbling slightly in the home stretch. Progressive Conservative support is quite firm, but simply not large enough at this… [More...]

Posted on October 3rd, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: None

UNDERLYING DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS SUGGEST MCGUINTY POISED TO CAPTURE SOME FORM OF GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – September 27, 2011] – With barely a week to go until the 40th Ontario general election, McGuinty’s Liberals have a slight but statistically significant lead over Hudak’s Progressive Conservative Party (34.9 to 31.4). Horwath and the NDP, meanwhile, are further back at 24.7 points.

In what may appear to be a fairly tight three-way race, the underlying demographic patterns and levels of emotional engagement may provide clues as to how voters will behave on election day. First, the demographic pluses which carved a majority for Harper in the… [More...]

Posted on September 27th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: 1