About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Wynne Sustaining Clear but Modest Lead as Campaign Approaches Debate and Home Stretch

[Ottawa – June 2, 2014] – Ah, the horserace. Pundits complain about the undue focus on this aspect of democracy and self-appointed polling “experts” tell us to ignore the polls as they are unreliable and potentially a corrosive influence on democracy. To this we say phooey! We have full confidence in our polls and the pompous caveats of the “experts” will have zero impact on an eager, poll-thirsty audience who will want these data out of some blend of simple curiosity or more strategic purposes. We have no comment on the claim that the polls are so inconsistent and… [More...]

Wynne Maintaining Clear Lead, Now Holds Upper Hand

[Ottawa – May 23, 2014] – The Ontario provincial campaign has settled into a pretty locked-in pattern. With a fairly high incidence of undecided voters (18 per cent), however, things could easily change and voters may be finding it hard to choose between distinct agendas: one focussed on pretty dramatic change, one focussed on minimal government and austerity (which our broader polling shows to be increasingly unpopular with a skeptical public), and a strong activist government model.

This choice would appear to favour Wynne, but it is confounded by another important layer to this election and that is… [More...]

Ontario Liberals Enjoy a Modest, but Stable Lead in Tight Two-Way Race

[Ottawa – May 16, 2014] – The Ontario provincial campaign is shaping up to be one of the most interesting campaigns in recent political history. It features two sharply contradictory policy visions: an austerity/minimal government model versus a progressive, active state intervention model. Superimposed on that stark choice is the regime fatigue and ethical issues which are confounding the voters’ decision making in ways which make the outcome of this race highly uncertain. These dynamics are also placing challenges on pollsters trying to accurately gauge exactly where voters are and where they may go. More on this later.

First… [More...]

NDP Fading at Critical Point in Otherwise Unclear Ontario Political Landscape

WYNNE SHOWING SURPRISING RESILIENCE IN FACE OF CURRENT CHALLENGES

[Ottawa – May 2, 2014] – In our latest poll, it appears that not one of Ontario’s three major parties have any real incentive to call an election. The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are both sitting slightly below their 2011 election results at 35 and 32 points, respectively. At 22 points, however, the NDP are down 7 points over last month’s poll.

The demographic… [More...]

Ontario Anyone’s Game

[Ottawa – April 9, 2014] – Our latest Ontario poll will come as something as a disappointment for those hoping for some kind of dramatic shake-up in Ontario’s horserace. While the Ontario NDP has picked up three points since July, nudging the Progressive Conservatives ever so gently down to third place, the overall picture remains largely stable. The Liberals are holding steady at 32 points, with the NDP sitting closely behind at 29 points. At 27 points, the Progressive Conservative Party remains well within striking distance of the first-place Liberals.

Ontario Landscape Stabilizes as Summer Hits – July 19, 2013

[Ottawa – July 19, 2013] – After an exciting few months that saw the Ontario Liberals vaulted from last place to first to second to first again, it appears that Ontario’s political landscape is beginning to settle as Canadians break for the summer. While the five-point lead enjoyed by the Ontario Liberals in May has discreetly shrunk to a slightly less comfortable three-point margin, the overall picture has remained relatively stable.

The Ontario Liberals lead their Progressive Conservative rivals 31.9 to 28.9. The NDP, meanwhile, is enjoying a modest rebound after watching their support gradually slide over three consecutive… [More...]

EKOS Poll: May 2013

May 2013

Click here for a PDF version of these charts: EKOS Poll (May 2013)

This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. We used a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research.

The field dates for this survey are May 22-26, 2013. In total, a random sample of 3,318 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 2,662 decided voters). The margin of error… [More...]

Ontario PC Tied With Governing Liberals – April 16, 2013

ONTARIO ELECTION UNLIKELY IN NEAR FUTURE

[Ottawa – April 16, 2013] – Back in February, our poll showed that Kathleen Wynne had been successful in breathing new life into the Ontario Liberal Party. The party had elected a new leader and, as is typical in the wake of a widely-covered and highly-energized leadership race, party supporters across the province were ecstatic. The party jumped from the losing end of a three-way tie to enjoying a small but statistically significant lead over the two opposition parties.

Two months later, the Ontario Liberal Party is holding steady. The Progressive Conservative… [More...]

ONTARIO LIBERAL LEADERSHIP RACE RE-ENERGIZES PARTY SUPPORT

PC SUPPORT LIKELY UNDERSTATED

[Ottawa – February 15, 2013] – Kathleen Wynne’s victory as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party appears to have been well-received by the public and the party now stands at 33 per cent, holding a small lead over the Progressive Conservative Party, who are at 29 points, and the NDP, who elicit the support of 26 per cent of eligible voters. This represents a modest improvement in the Liberal Party’s fortunes from two months ago, when it was sitting on the lower end of a three-way statistical tie with the two opposition parties in aftermath… [More...]

THE LOOMING LEGITIMACY CRISIS – October 21, 2011

TIME TO TAKE THE DISCRETIONARY OUT OF DEMOCRACY?

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 21, 2011] – In something of a nadir, the recent Ontario Election, in which a number of big issues were on the table, couldn’t summon the participation of even half of the citizenry. Have we passed the brink from democracy to oligarchy? While on pattern with a disturbing downward trajectory in voter participation, this movement into the realm where the majority of citizens aren’t voting may be a wakeup call for those who think that elections shouldn’t becoming a fringe activity. What may make… [More...]

A BRIEF POST MORTEM ON POLLING DURING THE ONTARIO 2011 ELECTION – October 7, 2011

[OTTAWA – October 7, 2011] – Ontario’s 2011 election was exciting and offered a number of surprises and we at EKOS are pleased that not only did we accurately project the popular vote, we believe we did a good job in charting the direction of the election. For instance, we were the first to call a Liberal victory in our September 27th release.

We learned a number of important lessons from the May 2nd federal election and we have invested a great deal of time and resources into tweaking our model to more accurately reflect the varying voter turnout… [More...]

EKOS’ FINAL POLL FOR THE 2011 ONTARIO ELECTION – October 5, 2011 (evening)

… AND A FEW COMMENT ON WHY THIS ISN’T OUR MOST IMPORTANT POLL

[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (evening)] – In our final poll, we offer two sets of numbers: all eligible voters and those we believe are most likely to vote. We don’t do this in the interest of doubling our chances of getting it right. Our best guess at a forecast is the most likely voter number, We do, however, think the other number is at least as important for other reasons and that the final closeness of polling numbers to the outcome isn’t best yardstick of… [More...]

MCGUINTY HEADED FOR THIRD CONSECUTIVE MAJORITY – October 5, 2011 (morning)

[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (morning)] – In what would have been unthinkable as little as a week ago, McGuinty’s Liberals appear headed towards a majority. Our three-day roll-up of more than 2,000 Ontario residents puts the Ontario Liberal Party at 39.0 per cent, a full nine points ahead of the Progressive Conservative Party who now stand at 29.7 per cent. The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, is at 23.1 points and the Green Party is sitting at 6.6.

We now turn to the question of what happened. Just ten days ago, our polls showed the Ontario Liberals with a small… [More...]

LIBERALS HEADED TO MAJORITY AS LEAD WIDENS TO 10 POINTS – October 4, 2011

[Ottawa – October 4, 2011] – In the final stages of the Ontario Election, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have opened up a clear and, at this point, likely insurmountable lead over their rivals. At 39.1 points, they now have a full ten point advantage over the flagging Progressive Conservative Party who have fallen under 30 at 29.1 points. The NDP are stuck at 24.5, which seems to rule out their balance of power role in a possible minority situation and the Green Party is sitting at 6.0 points. In fact, barring some unforeseen late shifts, it would appear that Mr. McGuinty… [More...]

DALTON MCGUINTY LIBERALS TRACKING TO VICTORY WITH 7-POINT LEAD – October 3, 2011

DEBATE HAD LITTLE IMPACT

[Ottawa – October 3, 2011] – In our most recent roll up of roughly 1,200 eligible voters in Ontario, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal Party is opening up a stable and widening lead over rivals Hudak and Horwath. While the patterns that we have seen over the last week show that the debate has had no discernable impact on the fortunes of the three parties, the Ontario Liberals appear to be moving ahead slightly while the NDP appears to be wobbling slightly in the home stretch. Progressive Conservative support is quite firm, but simply not large enough… [More...]

ONTARIO LIBERALS HOLD SMALL BUT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LEAD – September 27, 2011

UNDERLYING DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS SUGGEST MCGUINTY POISED TO CAPTURE SOME FORM OF GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – September 27, 2011] – With barely a week to go until the 40th Ontario general election, McGuinty’s Liberals have a slight but statistically significant lead over Hudak’s Progressive Conservative Party (34.9 to 31.4). Horwath and the NDP, meanwhile, are further back at 24.7 points.

In what may appear to be a fairly tight three-way race, the underlying demographic patterns and levels of emotional engagement may provide clues as to how voters will behave on election day. First, the demographic pluses which carved a majority… [More...]

SNAPSHOT OF METROPOLITAN CANADA – OCTOBER 13, 2008

CONSERVATIVES STILL STRUGGLE IN CITIES

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – The Conservatives may well win the election tomorrow, but they are likely to win again without much support in the most economically and socially dynamic places in Canada: the big cities.