[OTTAWA – October 7, 2011] – Ontario’s 2011 election was exciting and offered a number of surprises and we at EKOS are pleased that not only did we accurately project the popular vote, we believe we did a good job in charting the direction of the election. For instance, we were the first to call a Liberal victory in our September 27th release.

We learned a number of important lessons from the May 2nd federal election and we have invested a great deal of time and resources into tweaking our model to more accurately reflect the varying voter turnout rates among… [More...]

Posted on October 7th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: None

… AND A FEW COMMENT ON WHY THIS ISN’T OUR MOST IMPORTANT POLL

[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (evening)] – In our final poll, we offer two sets of numbers: all eligible voters and those we believe are most likely to vote. We don’t do this in the interest of doubling our chances of getting it right. Our best guess at a forecast is the most likely voter number, We do, however, think the other number is at least as important for other reasons and that the final closeness of polling numbers to the outcome isn’t best yardstick of “good” polling.

Good… [More...]

Posted on October 5th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: None

[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (morning)] – In what would have been unthinkable as little as a week ago, McGuinty’s Liberals appear headed towards a majority. Our three-day roll-up of more than 2,000 Ontario residents puts the Ontario Liberal Party at 39.0 per cent, a full nine points ahead of the Progressive Conservative Party who now stand at 29.7 per cent. The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, is at 23.1 points and the Green Party is sitting at 6.6.

We now turn to the question of what happened. Just ten days ago, our polls showed the Ontario Liberals with a small (albeit statistically… [More...]

Posted on October 5th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: 1

[Ottawa – October 4, 2011] – In the final stages of the Ontario Election, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have opened up a clear and, at this point, likely insurmountable lead over their rivals. At 39.1 points, they now have a full ten point advantage over the flagging Progressive Conservative Party who have fallen under 30 at 29.1 points. The NDP are stuck at 24.5, which seems to rule out their balance of power role in a possible minority situation and the Green Party is sitting at 6.0 points. In fact, barring some unforeseen late shifts, it would appear that Mr. McGuinty… [More...]

Posted on October 4th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: None

DEBATE HAD LITTLE IMPACT

[Ottawa – October 3, 2011] – In our most recent roll up of roughly 1,200 eligible voters in Ontario, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal Party is opening up a stable and widening lead over rivals Hudak and Horwath. While the patterns that we have seen over the last week show that the debate has had no discernable impact on the fortunes of the three parties, the Ontario Liberals appear to be moving ahead slightly while the NDP appears to be wobbling slightly in the home stretch. Progressive Conservative support is quite firm, but simply not large enough at this… [More...]

Posted on October 3rd, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: None

UNDERLYING DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS SUGGEST MCGUINTY POISED TO CAPTURE SOME FORM OF GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – September 27, 2011] – With barely a week to go until the 40th Ontario general election, McGuinty’s Liberals have a slight but statistically significant lead over Hudak’s Progressive Conservative Party (34.9 to 31.4). Horwath and the NDP, meanwhile, are further back at 24.7 points.

In what may appear to be a fairly tight three-way race, the underlying demographic patterns and levels of emotional engagement may provide clues as to how voters will behave on election day. First, the demographic pluses which carved a majority for Harper in the… [More...]

Posted on September 27th, 2011 under Ontario, Provincial Results. Comments: 1

LIBERALS AND TORIES STUCK IN DEAD HEAT, WATCHED BY A MAINLY INDIFFERENT PUBLIC

[Ottawa – July 16, 2009] – Canadians have turned decisively against Canada’s participation in the military mission in Afghanistan, according to the latest weekly poll conducted by EKOS Research Associates exclusively for release on CBC.ca.

“We have been polling on this question since the mission began,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “The public outlook on Afghanistan has undergone a steady and radical transformation. From overwhelming public support at the outset of the mission we have seen

Posted on July 16th, 2009 under National Results, Provincial Results. Comments: 2

[OTTAWA – June 11, 2009] – The medium-term trend continues to show a modest lead for the Liberals under the leadership of Michael Ignatieff. Since last week’s results, the Liberals have widened the narrow advantage they have over Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. That said, neither party seems assured of victory in any election in the near future. Moreover, the prospects of a majority parliament remain remote even after three consecutive minorities. The current numbers and evolving trends, however, increasingly favour the Liberals.

Posted on June 11th, 2009 under National Results, Provincial Results. Comments: None

PROBABLY FEELING BETTER ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT TOO…

[OTTAWA – June 2, 2009] – Some Canadians are feeling better about the economy these days, and those who are think that the government is doing a good job managing the economy. This shift may explain a modest improvement in the polls for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.

This is the latest result released

Posted on June 2nd, 2009 under Economy, National Results, Provincial Results. Comments: None

WHOSE AHEAD? DEPENDS ON WHO YOU ASK, WHEN YOU ASK. LIBS GET BUMP AFTER DEFICIT NEWS.

[OTTAWA – June 1, 2009] – The largest-ever survey of Canadians’ vote intentions reveals a see-saw race between the ruling Conservatives and the opposition Liberals, shifting as erratically as the morning’s headlines. Most recently, the Liberals received a statistically significant bump after the government’s bad deficit news last week.

Posted on June 1st, 2009 under National Results, Provincial Results, Regional Results. Comments: None

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

NEW DEMOCRATS CLOSING ON LIBERALS

[September 16, 2008] The latest rolling poll from EKOS Research Associates shows the New Democrats now within striking distance of overtaking the Liberal Party as the second week of campaigning is underway.

“This change has been taking place in small increments, day after day since the prospect of an election loomed at the end of August,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “The Liberals have gradually slipped from the high 20s into the low 20s. The New Democrats, meanwhile, have been

Posted on September 16th, 2008 under National Results, Provincial Results. Comments: None

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

Federal Voting Intentions – Weekend Roll-Up

HIGHLIGHTS

National federal vote intention: CPC 35%, Liberal 25%, NDP 19%, Green Party 11%, and the BQ 9%.

Please note that the methodology and detailed tables of these and other results discussed in this release are provided at the end of this document.

[OTTAWA – September 14, 2008] – Stephen Harper’s Conservatives continue to enjoy a yawning gap in popular support over Stéphane Dion’s Liberals in

Posted on September 14th, 2008 under National Results, Provincial Results. Comments: None

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

Tory Support Confident; Others Anxious

HIGHLIGHTS

45% of Canadians say the country is moving in the right direction; 37% say the wrong direction.

Conservative supporters overwhelmingly positive about the direction of the country.

Discontent among opposition party supporters, with women, Ontarians, British Columbians and Quebeckers about evenly split.

Anxieties about the current economy and the future environment.

Please note that the methodology and

Posted on September 8th, 2008 under National Results, Provincial Results. Comments: None