About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

EKOS Predicts PC Majority

[Ottawa – June 6, 2018] In what has been a wild ride, the electorate are converging on a judgement that will see Doug Ford leading a comfortable majority for the next four years in Queen’s Park.

The campaign has been highly dynamic and the final results bear little resemblance to the results going into the election. The NDP has seen a profound improvement in their fortunes and jumped from 21 points just two months ago to 41 points just around the time of the final debate. Since then, however, they have fallen back and their four-point lead has turned into a four-point deficit. The Liberal Party, meanwhile, is suffering catastrophic losses, although they have staunched the bleeding in the last week of the campaign. [More...]

Without Significant Changes, Doug Ford on Track for Majority Government

[Ottawa – June 1, 2018] As we enter the final week of the campaign, the Ontario NDP have started falling back, while the Ford-led Progressive Conservatives have opened up a clear, four-point lead. The Liberals are stuck at 19 points with no plausible path to victory. [More...]

Race Deadlocked

With just eight days until Election Day, the NDP finds itself locked into a statistical tie with the Progressive Conservatives. While the NDP enjoys a half-point lead over the PCs, the underlying regional patterns suggest that the PCs hold a significant advantage in terms of seat efficiency. Indeed, if these numbers hold, we will almost certainly be looking at some form of PC government on June 7th. The Liberals, meanwhile, have been stuck below 20 points for some time now. [More...]

A Volatile Electorate Producing a Newly-Tied Race

[Ottawa – May 25, 2018] With just 13 days until Ontarians cast their ballots, the NDP has seen a significant shift and now holds a statistically insignificant lead over the PCs in what is becoming a highly volatile race. Meanwhile, at just 20 points, the Liberals are being squeezed out of what has morphed into a two-way race and it appears that their 15-year reign may be drawing to a close. [More...]

PCs Hold Solid Lead, but Momentum Favours NDP

[Ottawa – May 22, 2018] With barely two weeks to go until Ontarians hit the polls, the NDP are picking up momentum with both the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals falling back modestly. If these numbers were to apply to the election, they would almost certainly produce a PC majority. However, the upward momentum for the NDP and the decline of the Liberals bring in the clear possibility of other outcomes. [More...]

Ontario PCs Enjoy Clear Lead

[Ottawa – April 6, 2018] Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have a clear lead which would produce a majority it there were to be an election tomorrow. However, current polling does not provide the basis for a comfortable forecast of the next Ontario election; there isn’t an election tomorrow and the Ontario Liberals have shown surprising resilience in the last three provincial elections. [More...]

British Columbians Providing Tepid Mandate for NDP-Green Partnership

[Ottawa – June 29, 2017] With the announcement that the Green Party of British Columbia would provide support to an NDP minority government, we asked British Columbians what they thought of this partnership. With 43 per cent of BC residents supporting this agreement, the mandate for this deal is quite tepid. Nevertheless, of those who have an opinion, the lean is to give this partnership a try.

While we did not ask provincial vote intention in this survey, we can look at how support for the NDP-Green partnership varies by federal party support. Support is –… [More...]

Alberta NDP Headed to a Win, Likely a Majority

POOR SEAT EFFICIENCY MAY KNOCK THE PCS TO SINGLE-DIGIT SEAT TALLY

[Ottawa – May 4, 2015] In what has been the most unusual election campaign in recent memory, Alberta’s NDP appears poised for a historic breakthrough. It seems that Mr. Prentice’s gambit to secure a fresh mandate has backfired and, given the vagaries of Alberta’s first-past-the-post electoral system, the party that has enjoyed 12 consecutive majority governments may very well be relegated to third place.

Of course, the wild card in all of this will be turnout. The NDP do extremely well with younger generations (who… [More...]

Orange Chinook!

ALBERTA NDP LEAD RE-INFORCED BY VOTE SPLITTING

[Ottawa – April 30, 2015] This week’s poll results present a radical change from the 2012 Alberta provincial election and we are looking at a very real possibility of Alberta switching governments for only the fourth time in its history. Overall, there are three very interesting stories underlying these results:

1.) Breathtaking change is possible

After 43 years and 12 consecutive majority governments, it appears that Albertans may well be sending the Progressive Conservative Association to the showers. Indeed, with these figures, the NDP is not… [More...]

EKOS Accurately Predicts Ontario Liberal Majority

[Ottawa – June 13, 2014] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 41st Ontario general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Kathleen Wynne’s majority victory. Indeed, our final poll captured both of the frontrunners to within the margin of error.

We also succeeded in noting the relative stability of the campaign, which is why we were confident in calling a Liberal victory as early as June 5th, noting that Wynne had an excellent shot at a majority government… [More...]

An Overview of the Campaign and a Reasoned Guess at the Outcome

WYNNE LIKELY HEADED FOR MAJORITY

[Ottawa – June 11, 2014] – Wynne has recaptured what was a highly stable, modest lead (37.3 per cent, versus 31.3 for the Progressive Conservatives). The about-to-conclude 41st Ontario general election has been an interesting and closely contested contest. It featured an unusually stark choice between two highly contradictory policy visions – a minimal government, austerity platform which assigns responsibly for growth and prosperity to the private sector and a progressive state model which sees government as both a source of insulation from the fallout of a slow-moving economy and as an agent of… [More...]

Race Breaking Liberal

LIBERALS APPEAR HEADED TO A MAJORITY

[Ottawa – June 11, 2014] – In a very important last-minute development, we see the race re-establishing its stable pattern from the pre-debate period. The Liberals now have a highly statistically significant lead of six points (36.6 per cent to 30.2 per cent) which places them not only in range of victory, but in majority territory. The evidence seems to show that the debate effect has followed a common pattern of dissipating and the electorate have reverted to the positions they held in the first three weeks of the campaign.

Dead Heat Persists as We Move to Home Stretch

IT DOESN’T GET ANY CLOSER THAN THIS

[Ottawa – June 10, 2014] – In what has been a pretty remarkable campaign we have nearly unprecedented murkiness in terms of the final outcome of a neck and neck race. For all intents and purposes, we now see a dead heat in terms of all eligible voters for the third night in a row. Our (slightly) adjusted likely voter model shows a shrinking and small advantage for Wynne’s Liberal party. At this stage, only a heroic guess would yield an estimate as to the victor and we simply don’t see any… [More...]

35.9 vs. 35.9: It’s a Virtual Deadlock as We Approach E-Day

[Ottawa – June 9, 2014] – In our rolling poll of the last three days, the new normal of the campaign has emerged – a dead heat between Wynne’s Liberals and Hudak’s PCs. In fact, in the 1,331 randomly sample voters that we interviewed, exactly the same proportion picked Hudak as picked Wynne. This sees the Ontario Liberals surrendering a pretty stable roughly five-point advantage they had sustained for most of the campaign. It also sees the surge that we saw on Thursday for Hudak (a seven-point advantage in that day of polling) revert to an exact deadlock. Where things… [More...]

Weekend Update: Liberals Staunch Bleeding

[Ottawa – June 7, 2014] – The Progressive Conservative surge of yesterday appears to have halted and our three-day roll now finds them in a statistically insignificant lead, but trailing on likely voters. More notably, the large single night lead which vaulted them back in to parity in the race does not appear to be continuing. The race is now basically tied and the outcome remains highly uncertain. The very large bump that disrupted the stable Liberal lead appears to have dissipated and, in fact, the Liberals enjoyed a modest lead last night. The net result is a basic tie… [More...]

Dramatic Shift in Poll Results From New Data

[Ottawa – June 6, 2014] – In a major shift, the results from our polling today have placed the Progressive Conservatives into a statistically insignificant lead over the Ontario Liberal Party. Although there are some peculiar things in the sample and the effect is largely concentrated in cases sampled today, the results are highly statistically and substantively significant. This very significant surge in support for Tim Hudak’s PC party disrupts what had been a very stable pattern of a modest but significant lead for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal Party. While she still has a slight lead with likely voters, she must… [More...]

Modest Listing in Wynne’s Ship Seems to Have Corrected

ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY SEEMS CHARTED FOR WIN

[Ottawa – June 5, 2014] – There is still a week to go in the campaign and the dynamics of turnout are very much uncertain. There are, however, some clear conclusions evident from charting the rhythms of the campaign and the situation post-debate. Barring some frankly unlikely shift in the campaign dynamics, Wynne appears to be on her way to victory, with an excellent shot at a majority. The only critical obstacle at this stage is turnout. Given the contradictory polling out there and the modest nature of the lead (five points)… [More...]

Liberals Maintain Advantage, but Race Far From Decided as Lead Narrows

[Ottawa – June 4, 2014] – The Ontario race is still up in the air but Wynne continues to hold the upper hand. Factoring in last night’s 515 cases into our rolling poll we see a narrowed lead for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal party. At 36.4 points, hold a 5-point advantage over their Progressive Conservative rivals. The NDP remains in third place at 19.3 points.

It would be a mistake to attribute this tightening to the… [More...]

Liberals Padding Lead in Advance of Debates

[Ottawa – June 3, 2014] –The race sees Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals opening up a wider lead in advance of tonight’s critical debate. Most of this new advantage is due to a three-point decline in the Progressive Conservative Party’s fortunes. Given the limited sample sizes, we would advise caution in reading too much into this shift from yesterday. The key points of yesterday’s analysis remain intact although this margin would probably steer the Ontario Liberals into majority territory.

Wynne Sustaining Clear but Modest Lead as Campaign Approaches Debate and Home Stretch

[Ottawa – June 2, 2014] – Ah, the horserace. Pundits complain about the undue focus on this aspect of democracy and self-appointed polling “experts” tell us to ignore the polls as they are unreliable and potentially a corrosive influence on democracy. To this we say phooey! We have full confidence in our polls and the pompous caveats of the “experts” will have zero impact on an eager, poll-thirsty audience who will want these data out of some blend of simple curiosity or more strategic purposes. We have no comment on the claim that the polls are so inconsistent and… [More...]