POOR SEAT EFFICIENCY MAY KNOCK THE PCS TO SINGLE-DIGIT SEAT TALLY
[Ottawa – May 4, 2015] In what has been the most unusual election campaign in recent memory, Alberta’s NDP appears poised for a historic breakthrough. It seems that Mr. Prentice’s gambit to secure a fresh mandate has backfired and, given the vagaries of Alberta’s first-past-the-post electoral system, the party that has enjoyed 12 consecutive majority governments may very well be relegated to third place.
Of course, the wild card in all of this will be turnout. The NDP do extremely well with younger generations (who… [More...]
ALBERTA NDP LEAD RE-INFORCED BY VOTE SPLITTING
[Ottawa – April 30, 2015] This week’s poll results present a radical change from the 2012 Alberta provincial election and we are looking at a very real possibility of Alberta switching governments for only the fourth time in its history. Overall, there are three very interesting stories underlying these results:
1.) Breathtaking change is possible
After 43 years and 12 consecutive majority governments, it appears that Albertans may well be sending the Progressive Conservative Association to the showers. Indeed, with these figures, the NDP is not… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 13, 2014] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 41st Ontario general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Kathleen Wynne’s majority victory. Indeed, our final poll captured both of the frontrunners to within the margin of error.
We also succeeded in noting the relative stability of the campaign, which is why we were confident in calling a Liberal victory as early as June 5th, noting that Wynne had an excellent shot at a majority government… [More...]
WYNNE LIKELY HEADED FOR MAJORITY
[Ottawa – June 11, 2014] – Wynne has recaptured what was a highly stable, modest lead (37.3 per cent, versus 31.3 for the Progressive Conservatives). The about-to-conclude 41st Ontario general election has been an interesting and closely contested contest. It featured an unusually stark choice between two highly contradictory policy visions – a minimal government, austerity platform which assigns responsibly for growth and prosperity to the private sector and a progressive state model which sees government as both a source of insulation from the fallout of a slow-moving economy and as an agent of… [More...]
LIBERALS APPEAR HEADED TO A MAJORITY
[Ottawa – June 11, 2014] – In a very important last-minute development, we see the race re-establishing its stable pattern from the pre-debate period. The Liberals now have a highly statistically significant lead of six points (36.6 per cent to 30.2 per cent) which places them not only in range of victory, but in majority territory. The evidence seems to show that the debate effect has followed a common pattern of dissipating and the electorate have reverted to the positions they held in the first three weeks of the campaign.
IT DOESN’T GET ANY CLOSER THAN THIS
[Ottawa – June 10, 2014] – In what has been a pretty remarkable campaign we have nearly unprecedented murkiness in terms of the final outcome of a neck and neck race. For all intents and purposes, we now see a dead heat in terms of all eligible voters for the third night in a row. Our (slightly) adjusted likely voter model shows a shrinking and small advantage for Wynne’s Liberal party. At this stage, only a heroic guess would yield an estimate as to the victor and we simply don’t see any… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 9, 2014] – In our rolling poll of the last three days, the new normal of the campaign has emerged – a dead heat between Wynne’s Liberals and Hudak’s PCs. In fact, in the 1,331 randomly sample voters that we interviewed, exactly the same proportion picked Hudak as picked Wynne. This sees the Ontario Liberals surrendering a pretty stable roughly five-point advantage they had sustained for most of the campaign. It also sees the surge that we saw on Thursday for Hudak (a seven-point advantage in that day of polling) revert to an exact deadlock. Where things… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 7, 2014] – The Progressive Conservative surge of yesterday appears to have halted and our three-day roll now finds them in a statistically insignificant lead, but trailing on likely voters. More notably, the large single night lead which vaulted them back in to parity in the race does not appear to be continuing. The race is now basically tied and the outcome remains highly uncertain. The very large bump that disrupted the stable Liberal lead appears to have dissipated and, in fact, the Liberals enjoyed a modest lead last night. The net result is a basic tie… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 6, 2014] – In a major shift, the results from our polling today have placed the Progressive Conservatives into a statistically insignificant lead over the Ontario Liberal Party. Although there are some peculiar things in the sample and the effect is largely concentrated in cases sampled today, the results are highly statistically and substantively significant. This very significant surge in support for Tim Hudak’s PC party disrupts what had been a very stable pattern of a modest but significant lead for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal Party. While she still has a slight lead with likely voters, she must… [More...]
ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY SEEMS CHARTED FOR WIN
[Ottawa – June 5, 2014] – There is still a week to go in the campaign and the dynamics of turnout are very much uncertain. There are, however, some clear conclusions evident from charting the rhythms of the campaign and the situation post-debate. Barring some frankly unlikely shift in the campaign dynamics, Wynne appears to be on her way to victory, with an excellent shot at a majority. The only critical obstacle at this stage is turnout. Given the contradictory polling out there and the modest nature of the lead (five points)… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 4, 2014] – The Ontario race is still up in the air but Wynne continues to hold the upper hand. Factoring in last night’s 515 cases into our rolling poll we see a narrowed lead for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal party. At 36.4 points, hold a 5-point advantage over their Progressive Conservative rivals. The NDP remains in third place at 19.3 points.
It would be a mistake to attribute this tightening to the… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 3, 2014] –The race sees Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals opening up a wider lead in advance of tonight’s critical debate. Most of this new advantage is due to a three-point decline in the Progressive Conservative Party’s fortunes. Given the limited sample sizes, we would advise caution in reading too much into this shift from yesterday. The key points of yesterday’s analysis remain intact although this margin would probably steer the Ontario Liberals into majority territory.
[Ottawa – June 2, 2014] – Ah, the horserace. Pundits complain about the undue focus on this aspect of democracy and self-appointed polling “experts” tell us to ignore the polls as they are unreliable and potentially a corrosive influence on democracy. To this we say phooey! We have full confidence in our polls and the pompous caveats of the “experts” will have zero impact on an eager, poll-thirsty audience who will want these data out of some blend of simple curiosity or more strategic purposes. We have no comment on the claim that the polls are so inconsistent and… [More...]
[Ottawa – May 23, 2014] – The Ontario provincial campaign has settled into a pretty locked-in pattern. With a fairly high incidence of undecided voters (18 per cent), however, things could easily change and voters may be finding it hard to choose between distinct agendas: one focussed on pretty dramatic change, one focussed on minimal government and austerity (which our broader polling shows to be increasingly unpopular with a skeptical public), and a strong activist government model.
This choice would appear to favour Wynne, but it is confounded by another important layer to this election and that is… [More...]
[Ottawa – May 16, 2014] – The Ontario provincial campaign is shaping up to be one of the most interesting campaigns in recent political history. It features two sharply contradictory policy visions: an austerity/minimal government model versus a progressive, active state intervention model. Superimposed on that stark choice is the regime fatigue and ethical issues which are confounding the voters’ decision making in ways which make the outcome of this race highly uncertain. These dynamics are also placing challenges on pollsters trying to accurately gauge exactly where voters are and where they may go. More on this later.
WYNNE SHOWING SURPRISING RESILIENCE IN FACE OF CURRENT CHALLENGES
[Ottawa – May 2, 2014] – In our latest poll, it appears that not one of Ontario’s three major parties have any real incentive to call an election. The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are both sitting slightly below their 2011 election results at 35 and 32 points, respectively. At 22 points, however, the NDP are down 7 points over last month’s poll.
The demographic… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 9, 2014] – Our latest Ontario poll will come as something as a disappointment for those hoping for some kind of dramatic shake-up in Ontario’s horserace. While the Ontario NDP has picked up three points since July, nudging the Progressive Conservatives ever so gently down to third place, the overall picture remains largely stable. The Liberals are holding steady at 32 points, with the NDP sitting closely behind at 29 points. At 27 points, the Progressive Conservative Party remains well within striking distance of the first-place Liberals.
Quebeckers Reject Referendum Adventure as it Appears They Have Already Emotionally Separated from Canada
[Ottawa – April 4, 2014] As a rather unusual campaign nears completion, it appears that Pauline Marois’ gambit to secure a majority mandate and a path to a new referendum, has gone horribly wrong for her and the Parti Québécois (PQ). Barring some frankly unforeseeable collapse Philippe Couillard’s Liberal party is going to emerge with a victory on Monday. It is unclear whether it will be a majority or not, but the high hopes of a PQ win, let alone a majority, lie in ruins… [More...]
[Ottawa – July 19, 2013] – After an exciting few months that saw the Ontario Liberals vaulted from last place to first to second to first again, it appears that Ontario’s political landscape is beginning to settle as Canadians break for the summer. While the five-point lead enjoyed by the Ontario Liberals in May has discreetly shrunk to a slightly less comfortable three-point margin, the overall picture has remained relatively stable.
The Ontario Liberals lead their Progressive Conservative rivals 31.9 to 28.9. The NDP, meanwhile, is enjoying a modest rebound after watching their support gradually slide over three consecutive… [More...]