About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Wynne Maintaining Clear Lead, Now Holds Upper Hand

[Ottawa – May 23, 2014] – The Ontario provincial campaign has settled into a pretty locked-in pattern. With a fairly high incidence of undecided voters (18 per cent), however, things could easily change and voters may be finding it hard to choose between distinct agendas: one focussed on pretty dramatic change, one focussed on minimal government and austerity (which our broader polling shows to be increasingly unpopular with a skeptical public), and a strong activist government model.

This choice would appear to favour Wynne, but it is confounded by another important layer to this election and that is… [More...]

Ontario Liberals Enjoy a Modest, but Stable Lead in Tight Two-Way Race

[Ottawa – May 16, 2014] – The Ontario provincial campaign is shaping up to be one of the most interesting campaigns in recent political history. It features two sharply contradictory policy visions: an austerity/minimal government model versus a progressive, active state intervention model. Superimposed on that stark choice is the regime fatigue and ethical issues which are confounding the voters’ decision making in ways which make the outcome of this race highly uncertain. These dynamics are also placing challenges on pollsters trying to accurately gauge exactly where voters are and where they may go. More on this later.

First… [More...]

NDP Fading at Critical Point in Otherwise Unclear Ontario Political Landscape

WYNNE SHOWING SURPRISING RESILIENCE IN FACE OF CURRENT CHALLENGES

[Ottawa – May 2, 2014] – In our latest poll, it appears that not one of Ontario’s three major parties have any real incentive to call an election. The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are both sitting slightly below their 2011 election results at 35 and 32 points, respectively. At 22 points, however, the NDP are down 7 points over last month’s poll.

The demographic… [More...]

Ontario Anyone’s Game

[Ottawa – April 9, 2014] – Our latest Ontario poll will come as something as a disappointment for those hoping for some kind of dramatic shake-up in Ontario’s horserace. While the Ontario NDP has picked up three points since July, nudging the Progressive Conservatives ever so gently down to third place, the overall picture remains largely stable. The Liberals are holding steady at 32 points, with the NDP sitting closely behind at 29 points. At 27 points, the Progressive Conservative Party remains well within striking distance of the first-place Liberals.

Quebec Liberals Headed to a Win

Quebeckers Reject Referendum Adventure as it Appears They Have Already Emotionally Separated from Canada

[Ottawa – April 4, 2014] As a rather unusual campaign nears completion, it appears that Pauline Marois’ gambit to secure a majority mandate and a path to a new referendum, has gone horribly wrong for her and the Parti Québécois (PQ). Barring some frankly unforeseeable collapse Philippe Couillard’s Liberal party is going to emerge with a victory on Monday. It is unclear whether it will be a majority or not, but the high hopes of a PQ win, let alone a majority, lie in ruins… [More...]

Ontario Landscape Stabilizes as Summer Hits – July 19, 2013

[Ottawa – July 19, 2013] – After an exciting few months that saw the Ontario Liberals vaulted from last place to first to second to first again, it appears that Ontario’s political landscape is beginning to settle as Canadians break for the summer. While the five-point lead enjoyed by the Ontario Liberals in May has discreetly shrunk to a slightly less comfortable three-point margin, the overall picture has remained relatively stable.

The Ontario Liberals lead their Progressive Conservative rivals 31.9 to 28.9. The NDP, meanwhile, is enjoying a modest rebound after watching their support gradually slide over three consecutive… [More...]

EKOS Poll: May 2013

May 2013

Click here for a PDF version of these charts: EKOS Poll (May 2013)

This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. We used a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research.

The field dates for this survey are May 22-26, 2013. In total, a random sample of 3,318 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 2,662 decided voters). The margin of error… [More...]

An Unapologetic Analysis of the BC Polling Debacle

WHAT REALLY HAPPENED?

May 29, 2013

Click here for the full report: Post BC Election Review (May 29, 2013)

 

Introduction

The provincial election in British Columbia produced a major gap between the forecasts based on polls and the results of the actual election. While the polls had shown a narrowing race and we had an unweighted tie in our final poll, it appeared that the NDP still enjoyed a modest lead and that they were ticketed for some form of government. This was shockingly not the case and the BC Liberals went on to… [More...]

Tightening BC Race Sees NDP with Narrow but Significant Lead with Likely Voters

[Ottawa – May 13, 2013] – As the British Columbia provincial election draws to a close, we see a considerably narrower race as voters head to the polls. We have created a model of most likely voters and the results are shown below. This model basically removes those who did not vote in the 2009 BC Election, as well as those who did the 2011 federal election, as our research has shown that these individuals tend to continue to not vote. We have also excluded those who could not recall where their polling station is located (for similar reasons)… [More...]

Ontario PC Tied With Governing Liberals – April 16, 2013

ONTARIO ELECTION UNLIKELY IN NEAR FUTURE

[Ottawa – April 16, 2013] – Back in February, our poll showed that Kathleen Wynne had been successful in breathing new life into the Ontario Liberal Party. The party had elected a new leader and, as is typical in the wake of a widely-covered and highly-energized leadership race, party supporters across the province were ecstatic. The party jumped from the losing end of a three-way tie to enjoying a small but statistically significant lead over the two opposition parties.

Two months later, the Ontario Liberal Party is holding steady. The Progressive Conservative… [More...]

BC NDP Victory All But Certain – April 12, 2013

IS BRITISH COLUMBIA BREAKING AWAY FROM ITS TWO-PARTY SYSTEM?

[Ottawa – April 12, 2013] – With barely a month to go until the 40th British Columbia general election, the provincial NDP holds a commanding lead and are well-poised to recapture government after the Liberals’ 12-year reign. Despite their best efforts, the BC Liberals have been unable to improve their fortunes from two months ago and the party is mired at 27 per cent. With no forward momentum and time running out, Christy Clark stands little chance at retaining her status as Premier on May 14.

It is important… [More...]

ONTARIO LIBERAL LEADERSHIP RACE RE-ENERGIZES PARTY SUPPORT

PC SUPPORT LIKELY UNDERSTATED

[Ottawa – February 15, 2013] – Kathleen Wynne’s victory as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party appears to have been well-received by the public and the party now stands at 33 per cent, holding a small lead over the Progressive Conservative Party, who are at 29 points, and the NDP, who elicit the support of 26 per cent of eligible voters. This represents a modest improvement in the Liberal Party’s fortunes from two months ago, when it was sitting on the lower end of a three-way statistical tie with the two opposition parties in aftermath… [More...]

BC NDP CURRENTLY POISED TO FORM NEXT PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT

BC CONSERVATIVES EMERGE AS CONTENDER FOR UPCOMING ELECTION

[Ottawa – February 14, 2013] – Since their narrow victory in 2009, support for the British Columbia Liberals has fallen precariously and is trailing almost 12 points behind the BC NDP who, at 39 per cent, are within striking distance of a majority government. The reasons for this rather dramatic shift in support are unclear, but factors such as the Harmonized Sales Tax, the deficit, service cuts may be at play.

Further strengthening the NDP’s lead is the demographic composition of their supporters. Unlike their Ontario counterparts who have been… [More...]

RETROSPECTIVE ON THE 2012 QUEBEC ELECTION – October 12, 2012

NOTES ON POLLING, TURNOUT AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF CANADA AND QUEBEC

[Ottawa – October 12, 2012] The Quebec election was remarkable for a number of reasons. The narrow victory of a Parti Québecois (PQ) government, with an avowed goal of separation from Canada, is not causing that many ripples in English Canada. While Levesque prescribed a Valium to deal with the visceral angst in 1980, the current reaction to the prospect of another referendum in Canada appears to range somewhere between indifference and hostility. There is a consensus that the issue of separation is pretty well… [More...]

A BRIEF POST MORTEM ON POLLING DURING THE ONTARIO 2011 ELECTION – October 7, 2011

[OTTAWA – October 7, 2011] – Ontario’s 2011 election was exciting and offered a number of surprises and we at EKOS are pleased that not only did we accurately project the popular vote, we believe we did a good job in charting the direction of the election. For instance, we were the first to call a Liberal victory in our September 27th release.

We learned a number of important lessons from the May 2nd federal election and we have invested a great deal of time and resources into tweaking our model to more accurately reflect the varying voter turnout… [More...]

EKOS’ FINAL POLL FOR THE 2011 ONTARIO ELECTION – October 5, 2011 (evening)

… AND A FEW COMMENT ON WHY THIS ISN’T OUR MOST IMPORTANT POLL

[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (evening)] – In our final poll, we offer two sets of numbers: all eligible voters and those we believe are most likely to vote. We don’t do this in the interest of doubling our chances of getting it right. Our best guess at a forecast is the most likely voter number, We do, however, think the other number is at least as important for other reasons and that the final closeness of polling numbers to the outcome isn’t best yardstick of… [More...]

MCGUINTY HEADED FOR THIRD CONSECUTIVE MAJORITY – October 5, 2011 (morning)

[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (morning)] – In what would have been unthinkable as little as a week ago, McGuinty’s Liberals appear headed towards a majority. Our three-day roll-up of more than 2,000 Ontario residents puts the Ontario Liberal Party at 39.0 per cent, a full nine points ahead of the Progressive Conservative Party who now stand at 29.7 per cent. The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, is at 23.1 points and the Green Party is sitting at 6.6.

We now turn to the question of what happened. Just ten days ago, our polls showed the Ontario Liberals with a small… [More...]

LIBERALS HEADED TO MAJORITY AS LEAD WIDENS TO 10 POINTS – October 4, 2011

[Ottawa – October 4, 2011] – In the final stages of the Ontario Election, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have opened up a clear and, at this point, likely insurmountable lead over their rivals. At 39.1 points, they now have a full ten point advantage over the flagging Progressive Conservative Party who have fallen under 30 at 29.1 points. The NDP are stuck at 24.5, which seems to rule out their balance of power role in a possible minority situation and the Green Party is sitting at 6.0 points. In fact, barring some unforeseen late shifts, it would appear that Mr. McGuinty… [More...]

DALTON MCGUINTY LIBERALS TRACKING TO VICTORY WITH 7-POINT LEAD – October 3, 2011

DEBATE HAD LITTLE IMPACT

[Ottawa – October 3, 2011] – In our most recent roll up of roughly 1,200 eligible voters in Ontario, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal Party is opening up a stable and widening lead over rivals Hudak and Horwath. While the patterns that we have seen over the last week show that the debate has had no discernable impact on the fortunes of the three parties, the Ontario Liberals appear to be moving ahead slightly while the NDP appears to be wobbling slightly in the home stretch. Progressive Conservative support is quite firm, but simply not large enough… [More...]

ONTARIO LIBERALS HOLD SMALL BUT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LEAD – September 27, 2011

UNDERLYING DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS SUGGEST MCGUINTY POISED TO CAPTURE SOME FORM OF GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – September 27, 2011] – With barely a week to go until the 40th Ontario general election, McGuinty’s Liberals have a slight but statistically significant lead over Hudak’s Progressive Conservative Party (34.9 to 31.4). Horwath and the NDP, meanwhile, are further back at 24.7 points.

In what may appear to be a fairly tight three-way race, the underlying demographic patterns and levels of emotional engagement may provide clues as to how voters will behave on election day. First, the demographic pluses which carved a majority… [More...]