[Ottawa - November 12, 2009] - Last month, EKOS posted seat projections based on our weekly survey of vote intention, which is released by the CBC.

At the time, the Conservatives were enjoying a sudden updraft in popularity, apparently driven by the Liberal threat to bring the government down and force an election. They hit 40.7%, which is several percentage points above the range in which they have been trading over the last year (with the exception of the period of the short-lived “coalition” scheme led by Stéphane Dion’s Liberals).

What was interesting about the seat projection done at that time was… [More...]

Posted on November 13th, 2009 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

[Ottawa – October 15, 2009] – From time to time, EKOS releases seat projections based on our weekly soundings of Canadians’ voting intentions.

There has been a dramatic shift in the Canadian political landscape in recent months. During the summer, the Liberals gradually gave up the advantage they had enjoyed over the Conservatives during most of the spring; but even as recently as our first weekly poll in September, the two leading parties were in an exact tie, at 32.6% each.

That seems like a long time ago. The Liberals have now dipped to historic lows… [More...]

Posted on October 15th, 2009 under Seat Projection. Comments: 3

[OTTAWA – June 18, 2009] EKOS continues to offer seat projections based on its opinion polling from time to time. The projections are based on national, regional and in some cases sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

That having been said, the projections do give us some idea what kind of parliament we might expect if an election were held in the

Posted on June 19th, 2009 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

Liberal Minority Now in Play

[OTTAWA – April 16, 2009]

Paul Adams

During the 2008 election, EKOS regularly published seat projections based on its surveys of public opinion. And we are doing this once again with our latest poll, published Thursday, April 16. (NOTE: the CBC, which had the exclusive right to release the results of the public opinion survey did not participate in

Posted on April 16th, 2009 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

EKOS Once Again Top of the Class

[OTTAWA – October 27, 2008] At EKOS, we have now completed the first phase of our internal performance review of the 2008 election. We have some work to do, but are very satisfied with the results, in particular because we pioneered two new methodologies in this election

Posted on October 27th, 2008 under National Results, Seat Projection. Comments: None

EKOS vs. the Actual Results

[OTTAWA – October 15, 2008]

Posted on October 15th, 2008 under National Results, Seat Projection. Comments: None

Is Our Projection Better Than Your Guess?

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – Throughout this campaign, EKOS has been offering seat projections based on the results of our EKOS tracking poll. We have repeatedly said when we offered them that seat projections are inherently fraught with more difficulties than surveying

Posted on October 13th, 2008 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

Tories Once Again Knocking on Door of Majority

[OTTAWA – October 10, 2008] For several days, the EKOS tracking poll has been showing the gap between the Conservatives and the second-place Liberals growing, after a short-lived Liberal surge that came immediately after the debates.

Our EKOS tracking poll covering Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday is the most current available, because it contains data from just three days, not four as other tracking polls have done in

Posted on October 10th, 2008 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

Small Fluctuations Can Make Big Differences in Seats

[OTTAWA – October 6, 2008] – It’s a nail-biter. We are entering a stage in the election campaign when small regional fluctuations in support could make huge differences to the futures of the parties and their leaders. In a

Posted on October 6th, 2008 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

BQ on Track to Big Quebec Win

[OTTAWA – September 26, 2008] – We offer this seat projection, based on our latest EKOS tracking poll, released earlier today. Most strikingly, the projection shows the Bloc Québécois resuming its dominance in Quebec. For the moment, the Tory prospects for a Quebec breakthrough do

Posted on September 26th, 2008 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

Posted on September 19th, 2008 under National Results, Regional Results, Seat Projection. Comments: None

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

[OTTAWA – September 16, 2008] A seat projection based on the latest EKOS rolling poll shows the Conservatives now clearly in majority territory. Although the 38% support that the Conservatives enjoy in the most recent EKOS poll is low by historical standards to produce a majority, in the current configuration of party support, with the opposition split four ways, the Tories benefit.

According to this projection, the New Democrats are near to pulling abreast with the Bloc Québécois as the third largest party in Parliament, and are also closing on

Posted on September 16th, 2008 under National Results, Seat Projection. Comments: None

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

Posted on September 15th, 2008 under National Results, Seat Projection. Comments: None