EKOS SEAT PROJECTION

“Prediction is very hard, especially about the future.” - Yogi Berra

These seat projections are based on EKOS’ opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional, and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

[OTTAWA – May 1, 2011] As we conclude Campaign 41 and await the public judgement, a few final comments are in order. Despite a bewildering array of contradictory evidence from the earlier polls it now appears that what was previously thought unimaginable has now become a point of consensus. The final… [More...]

Posted on May 1st, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 38

EKOS SEAT PROJECTION

From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional, and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

[OTTAWA – April 29, 2011] In an interesting development, as the Conservative Party’s overall margin over the NDP has shrunk to a mere five points, the newfound parity of the NDP and Liberal Party in Ontario appears to have produced significant benefits in terms of seat returns. So while the Conservatives have lost ground to the… [More...]

Posted on April 29th, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 42

[OTTAWA – April 28, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_28_2011

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Posted on April 28th, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 11

[Ottawa – April 27, 2011] – We update our seat projections based on our new three-day sample of nearly 3,000 potential voters. It continues to show a breathtakingly different Parliament in which the Conservative government is reduced to 131 seats but the muscular new NDP have 92 and the Liberals have 63. This new political math would produce a Parliament where the non-Bloc opposition would have 155 seats, a bare majority and 24 more seats than the Conservatives. With a clear advantage on popular vote and seats, what would happen? Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has stated that he requires a… [More...]

Posted on April 27th, 2011 under Election Issues, Seat Projection. Comments: 31

[OTTAWA – April 26, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Seat forecast methodologies work pretty well, at least the ones we’ve been using. We’ve qualitatively come very close to the actual outcomes in the past four election — including an estimate of 125 seats for the Conservatives in 2006, which was exactly right. So the models work well. But we are into somewhat strange… [More...]

Posted on April 26th, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 21

[OTTAWA – April 25, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Looking at these seat projections, the NDP and the Liberal Party combined would have a majority and 31 more seats than the Conservatives (as well as nearly 20 more points in popular vote). Indeed, It is hard to imagine how these totals would not produce the once unimaginable outcome of a Jack Layton led… [More...]

Posted on April 25th, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 39

[OTTAWA – April 21, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Over the next few days, the electorate are going to start scrutinising the brave new political world they have tentatively created. There are profound strategic implications based on these new patterns of support and our data and analysis can provide some hints as to where the electorate might decide to go (and what these… [More...]

Posted on April 21st, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 20

[OTTAWA – April 19, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

It is remarkable how similar these seat projections are to the current composition of Parliament. While the Liberals are poised to lose several seats to the NDP (mostly in Quebec), the Conservative and Bloc numbers are relatively stable.

It is interesting to note the voter inefficiency of the NDP vote in Quebec. While Bloc support… [More...]

Posted on April 19th, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 1

[OTTAWA – April 15, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_15_2011

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Posted on April 15th, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 22

[OTTAWA – April 11, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_11_2011

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Posted on April 11th, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 3

[OTTAWA – March 28, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_1_2011

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Posted on April 1st, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 2

[OTTAWA – March 28, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_march_28

Tweet

Posted on March 28th, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 6

[OTTAWA – March 14, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Below are the seat projections polling data collected from February 24th to March 8th. As you can see from the above the mere 7-point lead belies a pretty formidable advantage for the Conservative Party. The key is Ontario where the Conservatives would see the rewards of a newfound but fairly stable lead. Even with… [More...]

Posted on March 14th, 2011 under Seat Projection. Comments: 2

[OTTAWA – September 16, 2010] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Below are the seat projections based on both last week and the previous week. It is remarkable how consistent they are.

What is most notable about these projections is what a dog’s breakfast this hypothetical parliament would be in terms of the legitimacy and stability of a parliament if the current government were to find… [More...]

Posted on September 16th, 2010 under Seat Projection. Comments: 1

[Ottawa - November 12, 2009] - Last month, EKOS posted seat projections based on our weekly survey of vote intention, which is released by the CBC.

At the time, the Conservatives were enjoying a sudden updraft in popularity, apparently driven by the Liberal threat to bring the government down and force an election. They hit 40.7%, which is several percentage points above the range in which they have been trading over the last year (with the exception of the period of the short-lived “coalition” scheme led by Stéphane Dion’s Liberals).

What was interesting about the seat projection done at that time was… [More...]

Posted on November 13th, 2009 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

[Ottawa – October 15, 2009] – From time to time, EKOS releases seat projections based on our weekly soundings of Canadians’ voting intentions.

There has been a dramatic shift in the Canadian political landscape in recent months. During the summer, the Liberals gradually gave up the advantage they had enjoyed over the Conservatives during most of the spring; but even as recently as our first weekly poll in September, the two leading parties were in an exact tie, at 32.6% each.

That seems like a long time ago. The Liberals have now dipped to historic lows… [More...]

Posted on October 15th, 2009 under Seat Projection. Comments: 3

[OTTAWA – June 18, 2009] EKOS continues to offer seat projections based on its opinion polling from time to time. The projections are based on national, regional and in some cases sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

That having been said, the projections do give us some idea what kind of parliament we might expect if an election were held in

Posted on June 19th, 2009 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

Liberal Minority Now in Play

[OTTAWA – April 16, 2009]

Paul Adams

During the 2008 election, EKOS regularly published seat projections based on its surveys of public opinion. And we are doing this once again with our latest poll, published Thursday, April 16. (NOTE: the CBC, which had the exclusive right to release the results of the public opinion survey did not participate in

Posted on April 16th, 2009 under Seat Projection. Comments: None

EKOS Once Again Top of the Class

[OTTAWA – October 27, 2008] At EKOS, we have now completed the first phase of our internal performance review of the 2008 election. We have some work to do, but are very satisfied with the results, in particular because we pioneered two new methodologies in

Posted on October 27th, 2008 under National Results, Seat Projection. Comments: None