About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

2008 ELECTION RESULTS

EKOS vs. the Actual Results

[OTTAWA – October 15, 2008]

FINAL SEAT PROJECTION

Is Our Projection Better Than Your Guess?

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – Throughout this campaign, EKOS has been offering seat projections based on the results of our EKOS tracking poll. We have repeatedly said when we offered them that seat projections are inherently fraught with more difficulties than surveying public opinion because small shifts in relative party support can make big differences in seat distribution.

SEAT PROJECTION – OCTOBER 10, 2008

Tories Once Again Knocking on Door of Majority

[OTTAWA – October 10, 2008] For several days, the EKOS tracking poll has been showing the gap between the Conservatives and the second-place Liberals growing, after a short-lived Liberal surge that came immediately after the debates.

Our EKOS tracking poll covering Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday is the most current available, because it contains data from just three days, not four as other tracking

SEAT PROJECTION – OCTOBER 6, 2008

Small Fluctuations Can Make Big Differences in Seats

[OTTAWA – October 6, 2008] – It’s a nail-biter. We are entering a stage in the election campaign when small regional fluctuations in support could make huge differences to the futures of the parties and their

EKOS’ SEAT PROJECTION – SEPTEMBER 26, 2008

BQ on Track to Big Quebec Win

[OTTAWA – September 26, 2008] – We offer this seat projection, based on our latest EKOS tracking poll, released earlier today. Most strikingly, the projection shows the Bloc Québécois resuming its dominance in Quebec. For the moment, the Tory prospects for a Quebec breakthrough

EKOS’ SEAT PROJECTION – SEPTEMBER 19, 2008

Tories Back in Minority Territory

[OTTAWA – September 19, 2008] A seat projection based on the EKOS rolling poll released today shows the Conservatives sliding back into minority territory, and the Liberals the sole beneficiaries of this decline. Having theoretically picked up 11 seats over the second week of the campaign, the LPC now

EKOS’ SEAT PROJECTION – SEPTEMBER 16, 2008

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

[OTTAWA – September 16, 2008] A seat projection based on the latest EKOS rolling poll shows the Conservatives now clearly in majority territory. Although the 38% support that the Conservatives enjoy in the most recent EKOS poll is low by historical standards to produce a majority, in the current configuration of party support, with the opposition split four ways, the Tories benefit.

According to this projection, the New Democrats are near to pulling abreast with the Bloc Québécois as the third largest party in Parliament, and are also

EKOS’ SEAT PROJECTION – SEPTEMBER 15, 2008

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

EKOS’ FIRST SEAT PROJECTION

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

TORIES ON THE BRINK OF MAJORITY…REALLY ON THE BRINK

[OTTAWA – September 10, 2008] – Doing seat projections from polling data is a risky business. Polls are estimates of public opinion, even if quite accurate ones. Figuring out how these figures will translate into the distribution of seats in our first-past-the-post system is a tricky and imprecise business.

However, pollsters and journalists have spent the last two weeks implicitly making seat projections every time they have spoken of