RACE NOT OVER
[Ottawa – October 15, 2015] As we sit less than four days out from Election Day, there is precious little to report. While we thought at the beginning of the week that the race would be clarified by now, it isn’t. The gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed slightly and the Liberals’ advantage is no longer statistically significant. The NDP remains in third place, although they are still a major player in this election.
Regionally, Ontario continues to look very positive for the Liberals, while Quebec is looking very positive… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 14, 2015] We’re less than five days away from Election Day and the Liberals are maintaining a small but stable four-point lead over the second-place Conservative Party. The NDP is in third place, but the party is up almost four points over yesterday and may be showing signs of resuscitation after its decline over the last month.
The NDP is doing significantly better in Quebec, where the bloom is off the rose for the Conservative Party, who at one point seemed to be gaining ground over cultural and values concerns. Ontario… [More...]
MIDWEEK POLLING SHOULD BE VERY TELLING
[Ottawa – October 13, 2015] As we enter the final week of the campaign, the Liberals now hold a significant lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have had a significant drop which, if confirmed tomorrow, could spell the end of their pursuit of a stable government. The NDP has stopped its bleeding and may be rebounding slightly and, although their standing on vote intention has been greatly diminished in recent weeks, the distribution of their support is fairly seat efficient.
The Liberal Party has made sizeable gains in both Ontario and Quebec… [More...]
CHECK BACK NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF TURKEY DELIBERATIONS HAVE BROKEN STALEMATE
[Ottawa – October 11, 2015] The statistical logjam continues as we enter the final week of the election campaign. The Liberal and Conservative parties continue to see-saw back and forth for the lead. Indeed, the only clear movement over the last few days has been a decline in NDP support.
Contrary to other polls, we continue to see a three-way deadlock in Quebec. Ontario, meanwhile, is now a very unpredictable two-way contest with the NDP finding itself in an increasingly distant third-place. However… [More...]
NDP EMERGING AS THE HOME FOR THE MOST DISAFFECTED WITH INCUMBENT
[Ottawa – August 14, 2015] Nothing definitive has emerged from this week’s polling. The race remains very tight with the NDP having plateaued, but they are still hanging on to a slight lead over a pretty moribund Conservative Party. The Liberals are showed some signs of life and may be closing the gap somewhat.
We saw that the debate did generate attention and impacts but the effects dissipated as we got further away from that event in time. But the debate did have at least… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 19, 2015] The NDP continues to hold on to an insignificant lead, but they have been brought back to Earth by the return of Gilles Duceppe in Quebec and a mild resuscitation of the flagging Liberal and Conservative fortunes. There is some encouraging news for the Liberals who have seen a mild rebound, which is possibly linked to the major announcements of early week. This rebound has left the Liberal Party only five points out of the lead, half the distance they encountered last week.
The brief ascension of the NDP to… [More...]