About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Marginally Significant Narrowing of Liberal Lead

RACE NOT OVER

[Ottawa – October 15, 2015] As we sit less than four days out from Election Day, there is precious little to report. While we thought at the beginning of the week that the race would be clarified by now, it isn’t. The gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed slightly and the Liberals’ advantage is no longer statistically significant. The NDP remains in third place, although they are still a major player in this election.

Regionally, Ontario continues to look very positive for the Liberals, while Quebec is looking very positive… [More...]

Liberals Maintain Lead Over Conservatives

NDP REBOUND?

[Ottawa – October 14, 2015] We’re less than five days away from Election Day and the Liberals are maintaining a small but stable four-point lead over the second-place Conservative Party. The NDP is in third place, but the party is up almost four points over yesterday and may be showing signs of resuscitation after its decline over the last month.

The NDP is doing significantly better in Quebec, where the bloom is off the rose for the Conservative Party, who at one point seemed to be gaining ground over cultural and values concerns. Ontario… [More...]

Potentially Significant Movements After Long Weekend

MIDWEEK POLLING SHOULD BE VERY TELLING

[Ottawa – October 13, 2015] As we enter the final week of the campaign, the Liberals now hold a significant lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have had a significant drop which, if confirmed tomorrow, could spell the end of their pursuit of a stable government. The NDP has stopped its bleeding and may be rebounding slightly and, although their standing on vote intention has been greatly diminished in recent weeks, the distribution of their support is fairly seat efficient.

The Liberal Party has made sizeable gains in both Ontario and Quebec… [More...]

Tie Continues

CHECK BACK NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF TURKEY DELIBERATIONS HAVE BROKEN STALEMATE

[Ottawa – October 11, 2015] The statistical logjam continues as we enter the final week of the election campaign. The Liberal and Conservative parties continue to see-saw back and forth for the lead. Indeed, the only clear movement over the last few days has been a decline in NDP support.

Contrary to other polls, we continue to see a three-way deadlock in Quebec. Ontario, meanwhile, is now a very unpredictable two-way contest with the NDP finding itself in an increasingly distant third-place. However… [More...]

Three-Way Tie as Voters Try and Sort Out Who Can Solve the Economy

BALANCED BUDGET ISSUE MAY BE SORTING LIBERAL AND NDP FORTUNES IN REVERSE DIRECTIONS

[Ottawa – September 4, 2015] There have been some movements in an electorate that is becoming reluctantly engaged in a now month-old campaign that they are loosely acknowledging. If there was a sense that the Duffy scandal was beginning to awaken voters and weigh down on the Conservative fortunes, that sense has pretty well evaporated over the past couple of weeks. Attention deficit disordered voters appear to have at least temporarily moved on and the Conservatives now find themselves in a three-way tie with the… [More...]

Fractured Country Produces Tight and Unpredictable Race

NDP EMERGING AS THE HOME FOR THE MOST DISAFFECTED WITH INCUMBENT

[Ottawa – August 14, 2015] Nothing definitive has emerged from this week’s polling. The race remains very tight with the NDP having plateaued, but they are still hanging on to a slight lead over a pretty moribund Conservative Party. The Liberals are showed some signs of life and may be closing the gap somewhat.

We saw that the debate did generate attention and impacts but the effects dissipated as we got further away from that event in time. But the debate did have at least… [More...]

Midsummer Haze Clouds Voter Outlook

NDP LEADS AS PUBLIC GIVES SOME OF LOWEST DIRECTIONAL MARKS TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IN OVER A YEAR

[Ottawa – July 31, 2015] Nothing much is clear as we complete our midsummer check-up on the state of the largely distracted voters. There are, however, some interesting developments that set the stage for what will be a much more fiercely enjoined debate which will commence with the upcoming debate on August 6th. These become even more important on the eve of what could be an early and unusually protracted campaign.

The vote intention numbers show the NDP… [More...]

Race Tightens to Three-Way Race Again as NDP Slips

[Ottawa – June 19, 2015] The NDP continues to hold on to an insignificant lead, but they have been brought back to Earth by the return of Gilles Duceppe in Quebec and a mild resuscitation of the flagging Liberal and Conservative fortunes. There is some encouraging news for the Liberals who have seen a mild rebound, which is possibly linked to the major announcements of early week. This rebound has left the Liberal Party only five points out of the lead, half the distance they encountered last week.

The brief ascension of the NDP to… [More...]

NDP and Mulcair Continue to Rise

HARPER’S APPROVAL RATING CRATERS WHILE MULCAIR HITS RECORD HIGH

[Ottawa – June 5, 2015] Just as it appeared that a locked in three-way tie was setting in, we see the NDP opening up some daylight between them and the Conservatives stuck at sub-30 and the listless Liberals that are drifting downward in a gentle but cumulatively significant erosion of their position. The NDP should be jubilant and the Liberals very concerned. It may be, however, that the truly bad news is for the Conservatives. This is evident if one takes a deeper look at the trajectories and underlying… [More...]

One Year Out: A New Normal with Considerable Room for Further Change

[Ottawa – October 19, 2014] It is exactly one year to the day until the 2015 election and the country remains in a funk, with unusually poor ratings of both national and federal government direction. Outside of the diminished Conservative base, the vast majority think both the country and the federal government are moving in the wrong direction. While our most recent poll has shown a slight uptick in federal direction, is not meaningful and the Conservative Party remains mired at 26 points in vote intention.