About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

VIDEO: Is Security a Priority for Canadians?

Evan Solomon speaks with Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates, about where security issues rank among voter issues.

Fear and Hope: Understanding the National Mood

[Ottawa – July 23, 2016] The summer has seen an unusual amount of drama ranging from the shocking Brexit result through racial violence in the United States and a seemingly endless barrage of serial atrocities; most recently the horrific carnage in Nice. A coup attempt in Turkey and civil war in Syria all contribute to the sense of danger which seems endemic to our age.

We also see the American voters flirting with the idea of Donald Trump as President of the United States, and several analysts have drawn the common linkages between the Brexit vote… [More...]

NDP Continues to Rise as Liberals and Conservatives Continue to Slide

OPPOSITION TO BILL C-51 NOW A CLEAR MAJORITY

[Ottawa – June 12, 2015] For five of our last six polls, the NDP has improved its standing with Canadian voters and the party now stands at 33.6 per cent, a 16-point improvement over its modern low just four months ago. The NDP have nearly double the support that they did this time out from the 2011 election. Support for the Conservatives and the Liberals, meanwhile, continues to languish with the two parties standing at 27 points and 23 points, respectively.

The NDP sits just three-points ahead of… [More...]

Liberals rebound in Quebec as Harper’s emotional connections with voters weaken

[Ottawa – April 10, 2015] If only eight percent of voters shifted their current vote intention, we would have a dead heat across the three lead parties. The voter landscape is shifting in ways that do not appear to favour Stephen Harper’s Conservatives who now find themselves under 29 points for the first time since the security bounce from last October propelled them into a small but significant lead (which now appears to have evaporated). They now (insignificantly) trail Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and see less than a six-point margin over a clearly rejuvenated NDP.

Despite the sliding fortunes for… [More...]

If Canada Is So down, Why Is Stephen Harper So Up?

[Ottawa – April 2, 2015] The discipline of a fixed election date is increasingly drawing voter attention and we are seeing a pretty stable vote intention landscape. There are, however, some paradoxical disconnections between key trends in the dominant issues and concerns of Canadians and the recent relative success of Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. In short, the public now see their economy in a recession and give the government lousy marks on broad national direction. The dominant media issues of terror and security are no longer tracking in the government’s favour and the Prime Minister has the… [More...]

Support for Current ISIS Mission Beginning to Sag

DECLINING SUPPORT FOR EXTENSION WHICH IS NOW EVENLY SPLIT

[Ottawa – March 26, 2015] The ISIS mission continues to receive majority support, but this support is beginning to soften and is increasingly divided across partisan leanings and other key fault lines. This pattern of waning public support is familiar and was seen in the case of the Afghanistan mission. The initial blend of moral outrage and emotional chauvinism linked to the serial barbaric atrocities of ISIS will be tempered by more rational appraisal of the pros and cons of the mission as time goes on… [More...]

Voters Stuck

GOVERNMENT CURRENTLY IN SYNC ON CULTURE AND SECURITY, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY?

[Ottawa – March 13, 2015] It’s a painfully dull week on the vote intention front and there is little to report as the Conservatives and the Liberals seesaw endlessly back and forth for the lead. It is anecdotally noteworthy that the Liberals are at their lowest point since July 2013, but they’re only slightly off from their average showing over the past few months and they’re just two points shy of the lead.

20150313_slide01

The Revenge of the Forgotten?

Understanding the role of the elderly and poorly educated in the shifting voter landscape

[Ottawa – March 6, 2015] On first inspection, there is really nothing much new to note this week. The Conservatives have a slight lead, but this is likely a blip, not a real trend. There are, however, four really interesting and important evolving stories under this deceptively placid surface:

First, the new normal of a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals is almost exclusively a product of the terror and security file. The more daunting issues of a stagnant economy, arrested progress… [More...]

Conservatives Slide Slightly: Is the Terror Card Losing Force?

[Ottawa – February 13, 2015] In a week blissfully free of any new terror atrocities, it appears that the security wave which propelled Stephen Harper into a clear lead has lost momentum. The Conservatives have declined three points and the Liberals have risen (an insignificant two points). In examining the demographic and regional shifts, which are modest, it fits with the hypothesis that the lower salience of security in a week with no beheadings or burnings is the factor underlying this modest but statistically significant shift.

20150213_slide1

Final Update 2014: Harper’s late year bubble may have burst?

[Ottawa – December 23, 2014] In our final poll of 2014 the Liberals have rebounded somewhat to open up a small but significant four-point lead. This ensures that the Liberals will complete the year with never once surrendering the lead and in a position which nearly doubles their disastrous outing in 2011. While the Conservatives have drawn into a very competitive position the bounce that they received from the security episodes of the late fall appears to be fading. The next few months of what will be an increasingly intense pre-campaign period will tell us whether the CPC surge was… [More...]

Dramatically Tightened Race as Conservatives Crack 30-Barrier for First Time Since Late 2012:

CLEAR TILT TO A SECURITY AGENDA AS THE DRIVER

[Ottawa – November 7, 2014] The political landscape looks very different in the aftermath of the shootings of two weeks ago. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have seen their fairly solid and stable 12-point lead collapse into a much less comfortable three-point lead. A longstanding shift away from the security agenda as a priority has seen a dramatic rebalancing of the security/civil liberty fulcrum. This has propelled Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party to heights it hasn’t seen in nearly two years and redrawn the political calculus around election timing. The Liberals and the… [More...]

Race Tightens as We See Security Shifts in a More Anxious Public?

[Ottawa – October 31, 2014] The impacts of the tragic deaths of two Canadian soldiers appear to be affecting the political landscape in a highly significant fashion. While not entirely unexpected, the clarity and significance of the effects may be altering the political calculus around an early election.

From our latest poll, the following points are clear:

  1. The race has tightened significantly with the Liberal lead now cut in half and the Conservative Party now clearly ahead of the NDP.
  2. While his approval rating remains mired below 30 points, Mr. Harper has seen some softening of

A Memo from Citizens of the Near Future to the Leaders of Today

A LITTLE LESS MORAL PANIC, A LITTLE MORE PUBLIC JUDGEMENT, PLEASE

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 28, 2014] If we were to pick one date that demarcates the period of Western decline (and upper North American decline in particular), it would be September 11th, 2001. On that fateful day, the triumphal optimism celebrated in the End of History was halted by a whiplash-like inversion of the traditional balance of security and other issues such as civil liberties.

Although not obvious at the time, Canada participated at least as enthusiastically in this new… [More...]