About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Canada 150: The End of Progress?

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The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Queen’s Policy Review on April 27, 2017.

To celebrate the upcoming Canadian Sesquicentennial, the Editorial Board of the Queen’s Policy Review (QPR) hosted a special policy conference to discuss pressing policy issues that have, and will shape, Canada’s present and future. Both the conference and subsequent publication were focused on the following two questions:

  • ‘What are the policy challenges that have shaped and continue to impact the Canada of today?’
  • ‘What are the emerging challenges facing public policy in Canada

Understanding the Shifting Meaning of the Middle Class

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MARCH 2017

This report represents a synthesis of public opinion findings from EKOS and others to help understand Canadians’ attitudes regarding what it means to be middle class today.

This report was prepared for the Privy Council Office, and follows a review of the academic literature which looks at the evolving forces shaping the middle class from an economic and sociological perspective.

The views expressed in this report are those of EKOS Research Associates, Inc., and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Canada.

Click here for… [More...]

Citizenology: Towards a New Vision of Public Opinion Research

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The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Community of Practice for Public Opinion Research on January 17, 2017.

Please click here for a PDF copy of this presentation.

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Pollocalypse? Not Again

By Frank Graves

This article was published in the January-February 2017 issue of Policy Magazine.

In the wake of Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory, pollsters are again taking a beating for getting it wrong. In the Brexit referendum, the last U.K. election and recent Canadian elections, both federal and provincial, pollsters have been blamed for getting it wrong. EKOS President Frank Graves offers this explanation for what happened with the polls in the US election campaign.

[Ottawa – January 4, 2017] United States presidential elections are the Super Bowl and World Cup of… [More...]

Canadians Respond to Surprising Victory of Donald Trump

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LARGELY NEGATIVE REACTIONS, BUT CONSERVATIVES MAY BE SEEING A ‘TRUMP BUMP’

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – November 25, 2016] As the dust settles on the rather unlikely victory of Donald Trump to the highest office in the world, Canadians are trying to make sense of what this new normal will mean for them, the country, and the world. They are also trying to grasp the best route forward for the federal government with a very different U.S. regime than expected. There is considerable anxiety about these issues but there is also some surprising resonance in some places.… [More...]

The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform

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What do Canadians want?

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to #ERRE, a conference on electoral reform at the University of Ottawa on November 3, 2016.

Please click here for a PDF copy of this presentation.

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The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform and Democratic Renewal

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WHAT DOES THE CITIZENRY WANT?

By Frank Graves

This article was published in the November-December 2016 issue of Policy Magazine.

[Ottawa – November 1, 2016] The issue of electoral reform is of great importance to citizens. The issue does not produce the same visceral immediacy as debates about health care, climate change, and economic stagnation. It does, however, find its roots in deep historical shifts in the relationships between citizens and their governments.

We are going to try and distil the public preferences for moving forward on these issues. There… [More...]

The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform

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What do Canadians want?

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Special Committee on Electoral Reform on October 20, 2016.

Please click here for a PDF copy of this presentation.

Veuillez cliquer ici pour la version française.

A video of this presentation (as well as the Q&A period) can be found here.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire used to conduct this survey.

Please click here for the data tables for this survey.

Shifting Public Outlook

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RETHINKING SOCIAL CANADA

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the 2016 Queen’s International Institute on Social Policy held from August 22-24, 2016 in Kingston, Ontario.

The conference was hosted by the Queen’s University School of Policy Studies:

“Canada has entered a new period of social policy interest at both the federal and provincial levels, with significant resources committed to social policy renewal. Given this new phase of policy action, it is time to stand back and reflect on the changes underway in Canadian society, the priority challenges facing us, and our capacity to develop… [More...]

VIDEO: Is Security a Priority for Canadians?

Evan Solomon speaks with Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates, about where security issues rank among voter issues.

An Outsider’s Perspective

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PROSPECTS FOR THE GREEN PARTY OF THE FUTURE

By Frank Graves

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Green Party of Canada at its 2016 Convention in Ottawa on August 6, 2016.

For more information about the conference, please visit the Green Party of Canada’s website.

Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: An Outsider’s Perspective: Prospects for the Green Party of Canada (August 6, 2016)

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The Reinstatement of Progressive Canada

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AN UNPREDICTABLE PATH TO A PREDICTABLE OUTCOME

By Frank Graves

This article was published in partnership with the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP). Full article available here.

[Ottawa – January 11, 2016] The 42nd federal election was a unique and historically important election. The public judgement expressed in this election reveals some clear features of our changing society. And by exploring the true meaning and significance of this election, we hope to highlight how these results point to a broader and fairly significant redirection of Canadian society as a whole.… [More...]

Frank Graves on Everything is Political with Evan Solomon

[Ottawa – December 3, 2015] When Parliament resumes later today, Justin Trudeau will enter the House of Commons with a majority of seats. Last night, Evan Solomon met with Frank Graves to do discuss how the Liberals were able to leapfrog from third place to first place.

Click here for the inside story of how the Liberals became the dominant force, both federally and provincially, and for a discussion about the challenges that lie ahead for the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the NDP (skip to 24:20):

Everything is Political with Evan Solomon (December 2, 2015)

The 42nd Election: A Polling Retrospective

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By Frank Graves

Ottawa, Ontario
November 26, 2015

The following presentation was delivered to the Forum on Public Opinion Polls from the 2015 Federal Election hosted by the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) on November 26, 2015.

For more information about about the MRIA, please visit their website: http://mria-arim.ca/

The data presented here is drawn from a post-election survey conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology. The field dates for this survey are October 20-23, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,973 Canadian adults aged 18 and… [More...]

A Brief Post-Mortem on Polling Election 42

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EKOS VERSUS THE ACTUAL RESULTS

“The Liberal Party of Canada is poised to return to power with at least a clear minority and possibly a majority.”

-EKOS’ final prediction, October 18th, 2015

[Ottawa – October 20, 2015] After an exciting 78-day campaign, the 42nd Canadian general election has come to a close. We at EKOS believe we did a very good job in charting the direction of what was a rollercoaster campaign. In the end, we correctly predicted that the Liberals would return to power (and we noted the possibility of a majority), although… [More...]

So Who Will Win the 42nd Federal Election?

SOME CONJECTURES ON WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A HISTORICAL ELECTION

Commentary by Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 12, 2015] Not only is this one of the longest campaigns in Canadian political history, it may turn out to also be one of the most historically significant. Only two per cent of Canadians think this election is less important than previous elections; 75 per cent think it is more important. Voters tell us they are unusually emotionally engaged and that they see this election having huge stakes. The vast majority of Canadians think both the country and… [More...]

EKOS Accurately Predicts NDP Majority Victory in Alberta

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…BUT SHOULD WE HAVE BETTER POLLING YARDSTICKS?

[Ottawa – May 7, 2015] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 29th general election of Alberta general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Rachel Notley’s majority victory. There were, however, some incongruities between our last poll and the final election results. We overestimated the Alberta NDP by 3.7 per cent and underestimated the Progressive Conservative Association by 5.3 points. Both differences fall outside the margin of error (albeit barely). Our final poll results for the Wildrose Party, the Alberta Liberal Party… [More...]

Tolerance Under Pressure?

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By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – March 12, 2015] Canada has been singularly successful in solving the postmodern riddle of the clash of civilizations. While Europe and America have torn themselves apart over issues of immigration and race, Canada has been remarkably spared this particular affliction. All of this may be drawing to a close.

Under the forces of growing economic and cultural insecurities linked to security and terror, we are seeing a sharp erosion of our openness to diversity and immigration. Moreover, these issues are now prominent in the rhetoric of the political parties jostling for position in… [More...]

From the End of History to the End of Progress

The Shifting Meaning of the Middle Class

Full article available at Canada 2020.

[Ottawa – February 25, 2015] A few years ago, we began noticing something very different about the way the public looked at the economy. The public seemed to believe that we were encountering an end of progress. The idea of a “better life” or what is known to the south as the American Dream seemed to be slipping away. Among citizens of both Canada and the United States, there was a growing recognition that the middle class bargain of shared prosperity, which had… [More...]

A Looming Generational Conflict?

The Canadian perspective on Millennials/Gen X and the growing tensions with older generations

By Frank Graves

Presentation to the The Future of Work and Workers of the Future Seminar

Rome, Italy
January 23, 2015

Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: A Looming Generational Conflict? (January 23, 2015)

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