COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – January 26, 2012] The only smoke visible in Liberal Canada these days is coming from the scorched earth of May 2nd. It may therefore not be that surprising that the party would resort to some more pyrotechnic measures to reignite its fortunes. On the surface, the resolution to not just decriminalize but to legalize pot seems more of a Hail Mary than a sound strategic foundation for renewal. But is this really that hazy? When one looks at the longer term patterns of public opinion, and considers the truly available constituencies for the… [More...]

Posted on January 26th, 2012 under Commentary by Frank Graves, Economy. Comments: None

TIME TO TAKE THE DISCRETIONARY OUT OF DEMOCRACY?

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 21, 2011] – In something of a nadir, the recent Ontario Election, in which a number of big issues were on the table, couldn’t summon the participation of even half of the citizenry. Have we passed the brink from democracy to oligarchy? While on pattern with a disturbing downward trajectory in voter participation, this movement into the realm where the majority of citizens aren’t voting may be a wakeup call for those who think that elections shouldn’t becoming a fringe activity. What may make matters worse is that… [More...]

Posted on October 24th, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves, Ontario. Comments: None

Click the link below for a retrospective analysis on public opinion polling during the 2011 federal election.

41st Election: A Polling Retrospective

Tweet

Posted on September 26th, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves, Methodology. Comments: None

FRANK GRAVES RESPONDS TO EVALUATING THE POLLS: AN OPEN LETTER TO ONTARIO’S JOURNALISTS BY DARRELL BRICKER AND JOHN WRIGHT

[Ottawa – September 16, 2011] – Darrell Bricker and John Wright have recently taken a pretty harsh scattergun to many of their media polling competitors. While they score a number of direct hits on polling, and the media, they also say some things which are simply unfair. Given the failure of public opinion polls to accurately predict the 2011 election results, the frustration expressed by Mr. Bricker and Mr. Wright is understandable. Some of the claims that have been made regarding Interactive… [More...]

Posted on September 16th, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves, Methodology. Comments: None

AN EMPIRICAL RETROSPECTIVE ON ELECTION 41

By Frank Graves

Introduction: The Nature and Purpose of this Test

“Mistakes are the portals of discovery.” -James Joyce

As the dust settles on what was an extraordinary 41st Canadian election campaign, it may be worthwhile taking a more careful look back at the polls. While focussing on our own research, our observations are intended to have more general relevance to the debate about the role of polling in the democratic process. In fact, the research has important lessons on the shifting nature of our society which has important implications for the role of polling beyond the narrow… [More...]

Posted on June 17th, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 1

EKOS VS. THE ACTUAL RESULTS

[OTTAWA – May 3, 2011] Canada’s 41st election was extremely interesting and surprising. While we believe EKOS did a very good job in charting the direction of the election and some of the historical shifts that occurred, we were caught flat footed in capturing the majority victory for the Conservative Party. We correctly predicted a Conservative victory but we failed to predict the outright majority. Our final estimate of Conservative support fell well outside of the margin of error and, while it was not that far off the industry average, we were unfortunately on the low… [More...]

Posted on May 3rd, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 14

INITIATING AN OPEN-SOURCE APPROACH TO POLLING

By Frank Graves with Jeff Smith

In the same spirit that we offer our public opinion polling, data tables, and methodology as a forum for discussion, this document is offered as a draft and we welcome comments from those interested.

[Ottawa – March 29, 2011] – Recent articles by Joan Bryden, and the responses they have generated, have launched a useful, if mildly overwrought debate about the merits of contemporary polling, with a particular focus on the perils of political polling. There are many useful caveats and lots of points of consensus. Let’s focus on the main… [More...]

Posted on March 29th, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: None

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – March 28, 2011] – With the election campaign underway, some people are beginning to ask why any of the opposition parties (with the possible exception of the Bloc) would want to go into an election now, given where they were in the polls.

Maybe we should start with the obvious answer which even the most casual viewing of the question period would underline. These guys really and truly do not like each other. This parliament has been pretty dysfunctional, mired more in acrimonious sniping than nation building. There is very little common ground or… [More...]

Posted on March 28th, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 7

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – March 11, 2011] – If the government manages to avoid an earlier non confidence motion, the budget may well become the frame for an ensuing election, which appears increasingly unavoidable. Obviously, there is a strategic advantage in being able to actively frame your election strategy in the most visible act of Parliament – the federal budget. Add to this the fact that the Government enjoys higher confidence on managing the economy than the opposition and that there has been a modest but significant improvement in outlook on country and the economy going on… [More...]

Posted on March 14th, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 6

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – March 3, 2011] – Given the recent public debate, let me begin with what I would have thought would be a pretty obvious caveat. When I comment as a pollster, my preferred role is to interpret direct empirical data. There are, however, numerous situations such as this question about the potential impacts of the in-and-out issue where the pollster is asked to provide insight without direct evidence. Notably, any attempts at prediction will lack direct evidence of the effects. Perhaps this is why Yogi Berra’s caveat about how “prediction is hard, particularly when… [More...]

Posted on March 3rd, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 3

FRANK GRAVES DISCUSSES THE ISSUE OF CORPORATE TAX CUTS

[Ottawa – February 3, 2011] – There has been a lot of debate on the issue of the corporate tax cuts lately. Frankly, I find the government’s approach on this quite puzzling. Putting aside the very mixed economic literature on the benefits/costs of corporate tax cuts as a boon to job creation, the public opinion research is remarkably consistent. Corporate tax cuts, when position against virtually all of the plausible alternatives (e.g. individual tax cuts, investment in health and education, even deficit reduction) consistently emerges as a clear loser in the court… [More...]

Posted on February 3rd, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 3

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – January 31, 2011] – Over the past two weeks, we saw a number of seemingly dramatic political manoeuvres. The Liberals dug into the historical political tool chest and produced a ballot framing around the question of whether you were better of five years ago than today. When Ronald Reagan asked this of Americans some 31 years ago, things were looking downright gloomy in post-Vietnam, recession-weary America. So how would this framing work in contemporary Canada? Just as the Liberals were launching this framing, Canadians were showing rising confidence in the country and its… [More...]

Posted on January 31st, 2011 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 1

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – December 8, 2010] – In reporting on our past couple of polls, our favourite polling blogster, Kady O’Malley, has raised some legitimate questions about the credibility of our next to last poll (released November 11th). The basic argument was that the statistical tie wasn’t credible and that our most recent poll results (November 25th) showing a six point lead was “more like it”. We would like to respectfully respond to the question of whether or not this was a fair assessment.

The main evidence Kady offered was that large and “wonky” shifts in regional… [More...]

Posted on December 8th, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 3

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – September 27, 2010] – It is amazing to see the interpretive gyrations that the punditocracy have displayed in “analysing” the gun registry battle. Perhaps the only thing more amazing is how this relatively trivial issue has been a central political focus of the entire country for some time. Such salience suggests that there is the issue itself and much deeper values, symbolism and vested interest clashing under the surface level question of whether we should dismantle this relatively small and unobtrusive program. Research suggests that the actual costs and intrusiveness of the registration… [More...]

Posted on September 27th, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 4

[Ottawa – September 16, 2010] – Over the last two weeks, we have seen a very stable pattern with the Tories enjoying a scant but statistically significant lead. The numbers are precariously balanced for the parties such that even very modest shifts can profoundly alter the likely outcome of the next election. Perhaps the most notable feature is how elusive a single party majority (or even a stable minority) has become. Stephen Harper came to power with a minority government that the voters thought was the right antidote to the regime fatigue they felt with what had become near chronic… [More...]

Posted on September 16th, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: None

[Ottawa – September 2, 2010] – For the second time in a month, the Conservatives and the Liberals have moved into a statistical tie. While Michael Ignatieff’s travelling redemption show may have brought him and his party back from life support to fully fledged contenders for the next government, the demographic patterns suggest that the new parity is as much a product of Tory largesse to their competitors as any action on part of the Liberals. Indeed, in a frankly incomprehensible manner, Stephen Harper may very well have resuscitated the Leader of the Opposition with his decision to cancel the… [More...]

Posted on September 2nd, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: None

[Ottawa – August 5, 2010] – First of all, everyone seems to focus on the last week and it is the more interesting but the first week of the two week period was much better for the Conservatives and more consistent with previous weeks. The last week, however, clearly seems to show a significant shift in the voter landscape

As the Conservatives slip below the 30-point margin, it might be time for Stephen Harper to call in. This is really a very bad poll for the Conservatives. They have slipped back into a virtual tie with the Liberals and now have… [More...]

Posted on August 5th, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 2

This statement was written as a response to “Give Me Back My Compulsory Long Form Census Questionnaire“ by Dr. Alex Himelfarb, Director of the Glendon School of Public and International Affairs, at York University.

[Ottawa – July 16, 2010] - As a professional researcher, I am dismayed by this development. But I believe that this latest episode is just a symptom of a broader malaise which is increasingly infecting our society. Ironically, some 50 years after the coining of the term Post Industrial Society, where knowledge and intellectual capital occupy… [More...]

Posted on July 16th, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 6

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – June 24, 2010] – One way of looking at the current political landscape is to compare relative political fortunes today with those at the outset of parliament in the fall. Think of this as a melodrama in several distinct chapters:

CHAPTER ONE: HARPERMANIA!

Stephen Harper delivers a compelling Michael Bublé impersonation at the National Arts Centre and soars to clear majority territory.

Michael Ignatieff tries a Trudeauesque gunslinger showdown with Harper by threatening election but the Trudeau redux manoeuvre leaves him gasping in the dust 15 points down and with his approval rating plummeting to George… [More...]

Posted on June 24th, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: None