About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

From the End of History to the End of Progress

The Shifting Meaning of the Middle Class

Full article available at Canada 2020.

[Ottawa – February 25, 2015] A few years ago, we began noticing something very different about the way the public looked at the economy. The public seemed to believe that we were encountering an end of progress. The idea of a “better life” or what is known to the south as the American Dream seemed to be slipping away. Among citizens of both Canada and the United States, there was a growing recognition that the middle class bargain of shared prosperity, which had… [More...]

A Looming Generational Conflict?

The Canadian perspective on Millennials/Gen X and the growing tensions with older generations

By Frank Graves

Presentation to the The Future of Work and Workers of the Future Seminar

Rome, Italy
January 23, 2015 [More...]

Genquake! The Looming Generational War

[Ottawa – December 9, 2014] If age was money, then Canada would be obscenely rich because we are getting really old. Some basic statistics underline just how vivid our aging has been. As we approach our sesquicentennial, it is worth noting that at our centennial, our median age was around 26. The current median age which demarcates older and younger Canada is 41 and rising. Robert Stanfield most likely would have beat Pierre Trudeau in the photo-finish election of 1972 if they had competed in this political marketplace.

We are somewhat older than America and we had the biggest… [More...]

Rethinking the Public Interest: Evolving Trends in Values and Attitudes

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 2, 2014] Influential thinkers, organizers, policy developers and business leaders have gathered to discuss what we can accomplish as a nation at this year’s Canada 2020 conference. To open the conference, Frank Graves presents brand new public opinion data on the major policy challenges facing Canada.

Click here for the full story of how evolving trends in values and attitudes are causing our political leaders to rethink the public interest: Public Record – Canada 2020 conference – Polling Presentation (October 2, 2014)

Click here for a PDF version of… [More...]

From the End of History to the End of Progress


[Ottawa – September 19, 2014] Twenty-five years ago, Francis Fukuyama penned a seminal essay titled the “End of History?” This essay claimed that liberal capitalism had triumphed. This celebratory conclusion was noted in the dissolution of state socialism and the ascendance of the United States to hyperpower status1 and the provocative notion that the dialectical tensions of history had ended and the riddle of history had been solved in American supremacy. At the end of the century, the ascension of a growing and optimistic middle class in the last half of the twentieth century seemed… [More...]

From the End of History to the End of Progress


By Frank Graves

Presentation to the Queen’s 2014 International Institute on Social Policy

Kingston, Ontario
August 19, 2014

Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: From the End of History to the End of Progress (August 19, 2014)

“Likely” Voters and the NDP Vote in the Ontario Election


“Kudos needs to go to EKOS Research, the only firm to call two of the three main parties within two percentage points. In terms of the eventual outcome, their poll was probably the most informative, though they had the NDP too low.”

– Éric Grenier, ThreeHundredEight.com

[Ottawa – June 17, 2014] Looking back at the Ontario election, we were very pleased to have predicted not only the victor, but also the majority. Only one other firm made this correct forecast. While we are very happy with the nearness of our… [More...]

EKOS Accurately Predicts Ontario Liberal Majority

[Ottawa – June 13, 2014] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 41st Ontario general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Kathleen Wynne’s majority victory. Indeed, our final poll captured both of the frontrunners to within the margin of error.

We also succeeded in noting the relative stability of the campaign, which is why we were confident in calling a Liberal victory as early as June 5th, noting that Wynne had an excellent shot at a majority government… [More...]

Frank Graves on Power and Politics

Frank Graves appears on CBC’s Power and Politics with Evan Solomon to discuss the Quebec election results and the issues that are important to Quebeckers.

Pensions, Values, and the Role of the State


FEBRUARY 21, 2014


Now that we’ve all had a chance to pick through the entrails of a fairly low-key federal budget, let’s ask the questions: What does it tell us about the next election? How do we place this budget within the evolving political landscape? What does this fiscal plan reveal about broader changes to our society and democracy? Finally, how does this connect to what we believe to be the most fundamental political challenge of our age – the diminution of the middle class and the collapse… [More...]

Stephen Harper and the Middle Class Crisis


[Ottawa – December 20, 2013] As we examine the past year through the lens of our most recent poll, there are some interesting patterns and conclusions. Few of these will provide much seasonal cheer to the beleaguered Conservative Party. They seem mired at 26 points; a precipitous fall from the majority heights of 2011. Yet, despite a bruising year of problems with issues around ethics and accountability, our rough adjustments for what an election based on those who actually show up would look like shows a three-way dead heat. This sets the stage for the… [More...]

Stephen Harper Plumbing Record Lows on Trust, Direction, and Approval


[Ottawa – October 29, 2013] The recent Senate spending scandal is registering strongly with voters and shaping up to be a truly frightening shock to this government’s prospects as they try to hit the reset button in lead up to their Halloween Eve convention. It comes on the heels of a series of setbacks which finds the government in its most precarious position since it assumed office some seven plus years ago.

It is important to remember, however, that Stephen Harper has come back before and it would be foolish to… [More...]

So What’s Really Bothering You Canada?


[Ottawa – October 17, 2013] As most Canadians blithely ignore the Speech from the Throne (our past research shows about 10 per cent follow this event), we thought it would be worthwhile to review what is truly on the minds of Canadians today. Whereas the north of the Queensway crowd is all atwitter about the throne speech, the preoccupations and attention of average Canadians are decidedly elsewhere. What are those concerns? Is there a correspondence to the framing document for the government’s agenda and the salient concerns… [More...]

Choosing a Better Future? – July 26, 2013


Click here for the full report: Full Report (July 26, 2013)

[Ottawa – July 26, 2013] Consider the long term future from the perspective of the average Canadian. The short term outlook doesn’t look that bad. Fears of job loss are much lower than in the nervous nineties. The economy may have been basically stagnant since the September 11th attacks, but hey, we aren’t Spain, let alone Greece. But this might be the end of the good news. The same mythical average Canadian has experienced essentially zero real growth in income… [More...]

An Unapologetic Analysis of the BC Polling Debacle


May 29, 2013

Click here for the full report: Post BC Election Review (May 29, 2013)



The provincial election in British Columbia produced a major gap between the forecasts based on polls and the results of the actual election. While the polls had shown a narrowing race and we had an unweighted tie in our final poll, it appeared that the NDP still enjoyed a modest lead and that they were ticketed for some form of government. This was shockingly not the case and the BC Liberals went on to… [More...]

The Trust Deficit: What Does it Mean?

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – May 14, 2013] – Trust has become a scarce societal resource. This isn’t a recent problem and the decline of trust has been a steady downward march for the past 40 years in upper North America. Only about one four citizens believe they can trust their federal governments (it either Ottawa or Washington) to do the right thing. Contrary to views that this precipitous decline in trust is caused by specific events (e.g., Watergate, Sponsorship), the evidence shows that there are much bigger cultural forces at play.

How Changing Values, Demographics, and Economic Context are Reshaping Canada

On May 1-3, 2013, Newspapers Canada partnered with the Canadian Association of Journalists to host the INK+BEYOND newspaper conference at the Westin Hotel in Ottawa. The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves on May 3, 2013. [More...]

Immigration, Diversity, and the Political Landscape – April 19, 2013


[Ottawa – April 19, 2013] The two largest demographic forces in Canadian society are aging and immigration. Both of these are profoundly altering the political landscape and both of these forces have been favoured CPC fortunes in recent years. Here we will focus on how immigration is altering political fortunes of different parties and speculate as to how this augurs for the future. We will also look at attitudes to immigration itself, how this is evolving in Canada and how this links to party preference (and other factors).

Canada… [More...]

Mr. Mulcair Has a Bit of a Loyalty Problem – April 16, 2013

[Ottawa – April 16, 2013] Fidelity isn’t one of the strong points of Canadian voters but Thomas Mulcair seems to be suffering a bit of a loyalty problem with his new party.

A year after assuming the leadership of the NDP and the office of the leader of opposition, he is experiencing significant difficulties. He hasn’t seen anything in the polls which could be termed a disastrous or precipitous fall — but he has seen a slow slide which will become a disaster if it isn’t corrected.

He remains what would have been unimaginable just two years ago… [More...]

The Trudeau Effect – April 14, 2013


[Ottawa – April 14, 2013] A plethora of pundits have offered views on the emergence of Justin Trudeau as the next leader of the Liberal Party. Here we will take a more modest approach and focus on what the public opinion trends are telling us. It is probably safe to say that Mr. Trudeau is causing a buzz in media coverage. The mixture includes the gamut from committed sceptics/critics to fawning acolytes, but it is safe to say that media attention to Mr. Trudeau has risen and that arguably the overall tone… [More...]