THE SHIFTING MEANING OF MIDDLE CLASS
By Frank Graves
Presentation to the Queen’s 2014 International Institute on Social Policy
August 19, 2014
Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: From the End of History to the End of Progress (August 19, 2014)
A CAUTIONARY TALE
“Kudos needs to go to EKOS Research, the only firm to call two of the three main parties within two percentage points. In terms of the eventual outcome, their poll was probably the most informative, though they had the NDP too low.”
– Éric Grenier, ThreeHundredEight.com
[Ottawa – June 17, 2014] Looking back at the Ontario election, we were very pleased to have predicted not only the victor, but also the majority. Only one other firm made this correct forecast. While we are very happy with the nearness of our… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 13, 2014] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 41st Ontario general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Kathleen Wynne’s majority victory. Indeed, our final poll captured both of the frontrunners to within the margin of error.
We also succeeded in noting the relative stability of the campaign, which is why we were confident in calling a Liberal victory as early as June 5th, noting that Wynne had an excellent shot at a majority government… [More...]
Frank Graves appears on CBC’s Power and Politics with Evan Solomon to discuss the Quebec election results and the issues that are important to Quebeckers.
IMAGINING THE DEFINING ISSUE OF THE 42ND ELECTION
FEBRUARY 21, 2014
Now that we’ve all had a chance to pick through the entrails of a fairly low-key federal budget, let’s ask the questions: What does it tell us about the next election? How do we place this budget within the evolving political landscape? What does this fiscal plan reveal about broader changes to our society and democracy? Finally, how does this connect to what we believe to be the most fundamental political challenge of our age – the diminution of the middle class and the collapse… [More...]
COMMENTARY BY FRANK GRAVES
[Ottawa – December 20, 2013] As we examine the past year through the lens of our most recent poll, there are some interesting patterns and conclusions. Few of these will provide much seasonal cheer to the beleaguered Conservative Party. They seem mired at 26 points; a precipitous fall from the majority heights of 2011. Yet, despite a bruising year of problems with issues around ethics and accountability, our rough adjustments for what an election based on those who actually show up would look like shows a three-way dead heat. This sets the stage for the… [More...]
(AND WHAT DO YOU WANT YOUR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO DO ABOUT IT?)
[Ottawa – October 17, 2013] As most Canadians blithely ignore the Speech from the Throne (our past research shows about 10 per cent follow this event), we thought it would be worthwhile to review what is truly on the minds of Canadians today. Whereas the north of the Queensway crowd is all atwitter about the throne speech, the preoccupations and attention of average Canadians are decidedly elsewhere. What are those concerns? Is there a correspondence to the framing document for the government’s agenda and the salient concerns… [More...]
PUBLIC PREFERENCES ON LONG-TERM TRAJECTORY SHIFTS
Click here for the full report: Full Report (July 26, 2013)
[Ottawa – July 26, 2013] Consider the long term future from the perspective of the average Canadian. The short term outlook doesn’t look that bad. Fears of job loss are much lower than in the nervous nineties. The economy may have been basically stagnant since the September 11th attacks, but hey, we aren’t Spain, let alone Greece. But this might be the end of the good news. The same mythical average Canadian has experienced essentially zero real growth in income… [More...]
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED?
May 29, 2013
Click here for the full report: Post BC Election Review (May 29, 2013)
The provincial election in British Columbia produced a major gap between the forecasts based on polls and the results of the actual election. While the polls had shown a narrowing race and we had an unweighted tie in our final poll, it appeared that the NDP still enjoyed a modest lead and that they were ticketed for some form of government. This was shockingly not the case and the BC Liberals went on to… [More...]
By Frank Graves
[Ottawa – May 14, 2013] – Trust has become a scarce societal resource. This isn’t a recent problem and the decline of trust has been a steady downward march for the past 40 years in upper North America. Only about one four citizens believe they can trust their federal governments (it either Ottawa or Washington) to do the right thing. Contrary to views that this precipitous decline in trust is caused by specific events (e.g., Watergate, Sponsorship), the evidence shows that there are much bigger cultural forces at play.
Implications for the Future
On May 1-3, 2013, Newspapers Canada partnered with the Canadian Association of Journalists to host the INK+BEYOND newspaper conference at the Westin Hotel in Ottawa. The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves on May 3, 2013.
Session summaries, photos and more highlights from Canada’s 94th annual national conference are available at Newspapers Canada’s website.
Please click here for a PDF copy of this presentation.
IS THE FOREIGN-BORN VOTE SWINGING BACK TO THE LIBERALS?
[Ottawa – April 19, 2013] The two largest demographic forces in Canadian society are aging and immigration. Both of these are profoundly altering the political landscape and both of these forces have been favoured CPC fortunes in recent years. Here we will focus on how immigration is altering political fortunes of different parties and speculate as to how this augurs for the future. We will also look at attitudes to immigration itself, how this is evolving in Canada and how this links to party preference (and other factors).
Examining Longer Term Shifts in Values, Social Class, and Societal Outlook
By Frank Graves
Presentation to the School of Public Policy and GovernanceUniversity of Toronto
Click here for Frank Graves’ presentation to the School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Toronto. The presentation addresses a number of important issues, including the shifting values and priorities of Canadians, the changing outlook on Canada’s middle class and economy, and the perceived health of democracy in Canada.
Left-Right, Forward-Backward (March 21, 2013)
Click here for a presentation by Frank Graves for the 2012 State of the Federation conference: Values and Identity (December 1, 2012)
See below for a presentation by Frank Graves titled “How to Become Canada’s ‘Best Pollster'”.
This presentation was part of the MRIA’s Beyond the Headlines forum on Thursday, June 14th.
Click here for the full report: How to Become Canada’s “Best Pollster” (June 14, 2012)
COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES
[Ottawa – March 23, 2012] First of all, let me heartily congratulate you on having won what certainly seemed to be Canada’s longest ever readership race. No one doubts your endurance and that will be important. You may have found the leadership process gruelling but you have just stepped into the midst of what will undoubtedly become Canada’s longest federal election campaign. The crucial pre-campaign period used to begin maybe three to six months before the writ was dropped. This pre-campaign is clearly already on with attack ads targeted at the interim leader… [More...]