About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Canadians Worried Sick about Health Care

[Ottawa – October 15, 2015] Most citizens are deeply concerned about the current status and future prospects for Canada’s public health care system. There is a clear sense that the system has eroded badly under Stephen Harper’s watch and the public are emphatically offside with many of the core health policies of the Harper government. Even within Conservative supporters, there are large levels of anxiety and dissatisfaction. In the rest of the voting population, dissatisfaction is intense – even visceral.

The question arises as to why an issue of such potent significance to Canadians, at the… [More...]

Harper once again in scant lead in muddy see saw voter contest

THE IRONIC POLITICAL JOURNEY OF THE BELEAGUERED MIDDLE CLASS

[Ottawa – April 17, 2015] There isn’t a lot to note in a rather moribund political landscape. Stephen Harper’s small but significant lead is quite impressive in light of the preponderance of seemingly threatening forces arrayed against him.

Our latest tracking shows that confidence in national direction is teetering to historic lows, matching the historic negativism surrounding the direction of the country and the government leading it. Outlook on the economy is nothing short of gloomy and his personal approval levels are the worst of… [More...]

Liberals Have Slight Lead as Harper Losing Edge on Values

Worst ever projection forward last week; this week, things are equally bad looking back

[Ottawa – March 20, 2015] This week, there is not much new to report on the vote intention front. The Liberals have bounced back to 32 points, while the Conservatives have dropped to 30, their lowest point so far this year. It is worth noting that this represents a net four-point shift for the Conservatives (from a two-point lead to a two-point deficit) and certainly bears watching; however, they are not far off from their average showing over the past few months and we… [More...]

Tolerance Under Pressure?

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – March 12, 2015] Canada has been singularly successful in solving the postmodern riddle of the clash of civilizations. While Europe and America have torn themselves apart over issues of immigration and race, Canada has been remarkably spared this particular affliction. All of this may be drawing to a close.

Under the forces of growing economic and cultural insecurities linked to security and terror, we are seeing a sharp erosion of our openness to diversity and immigration. Moreover, these issues are now prominent in the rhetoric of the political parties jostling for position in… [More...]

The Revenge of the Forgotten?

Understanding the role of the elderly and poorly educated in the shifting voter landscape

[Ottawa – March 6, 2015] On first inspection, there is really nothing much new to note this week. The Conservatives have a slight lead, but this is likely a blip, not a real trend. There are, however, four really interesting and important evolving stories under this deceptively placid surface:

First, the new normal of a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals is almost exclusively a product of the terror and security file. The more daunting issues of a stagnant economy, arrested progress… [More...]

Conservatives and Liberals Locked in Dead Heat

ECONOMY TEMPORARILY TAKING A BACK SEAT TO SECURITY AND CULTURE?

[Ottawa – February 20, 2015] The only thing hot about frigid Canada right now is the dead heat capturing the political landscape. There are some movements, but they are more of the twitch variety than structural movements. At the fringes, the electorate seems to be lurching around like a drunken monkey, but the new normal of a deadlocked Conservative/Liberal race seems to be a stable undercurrent. The Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie at thirty two points each, with the NDP trailing at 18.

Conservatives Now Polling Higher than in Final Stages of 2011 Campaign

WILL HARPER SEIZE A TIME-STAMPED OPPORTUNITY TO WIN ANOTHER MANDATE?

[Ottawa – February 5, 2015] Any doubts about the authenticity and durability of the Conservative Party’s improvement in political fortunes from last fall can now be effectively dispelled. The Conservatives have erased a 12-point Liberal lead and now enjoy a modest but stable and apparently growing lead of three points. The 35-point level is there best poll since 2011 and it is higher than where we had them in the final stages of the 2011 election campaign, which resulted in a majority victory. Although these trends have been gentle… [More...]

Rethinking the Public Interest: Evolving Trends in Values and Attitudes

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 2, 2014] Influential thinkers, organizers, policy developers and business leaders have gathered to discuss what we can accomplish as a nation at this year’s Canada 2020 conference. To open the conference, Frank Graves presents brand new public opinion data on the major policy challenges facing Canada.

Click here for the full story of how evolving trends in values and attitudes are causing our political leaders to rethink the public interest: Public Record – Canada 2020 conference – Polling Presentation (October 2, 2014)

Click here for a PDF version of… [More...]

Quebec Liberals Headed to a Win

Quebeckers Reject Referendum Adventure as it Appears They Have Already Emotionally Separated from Canada

[Ottawa – April 4, 2014] As a rather unusual campaign nears completion, it appears that Pauline Marois’ gambit to secure a majority mandate and a path to a new referendum, has gone horribly wrong for her and the Parti Québécois (PQ). Barring some frankly unforeseeable collapse Philippe Couillard’s Liberal party is going to emerge with a victory on Monday. It is unclear whether it will be a majority or not, but the high hopes of a PQ win, let alone a majority, lie in ruins… [More...]

Pensions, Values, and the Role of the State

IMAGINING THE DEFINING ISSUE OF THE 42ND ELECTION

FEBRUARY 21, 2014

Introduction

Now that we’ve all had a chance to pick through the entrails of a fairly low-key federal budget, let’s ask the questions: What does it tell us about the next election? How do we place this budget within the evolving political landscape? What does this fiscal plan reveal about broader changes to our society and democracy? Finally, how does this connect to what we believe to be the most fundamental political challenge of our age – the diminution of the middle class and the collapse… [More...]

Left-Right? Forward-Backward? – March 21, 2013

Examining Longer Term Shifts in Values, Social Class, and Societal Outlook

By Frank Graves

Presentation to the School of Public Policy and Governance University of Toronto

Click here for Frank Graves’ presentation to the School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Toronto. The presentation addresses a number of important issues, including the shifting values and priorities of Canadians, the changing outlook on Canada’s middle class and economy, and the perceived health of democracy in Canada.

Left-Right, Forward-Backward (March 21, 2013)

BEYOND THE HORSERACE

HOW CANADIANS SEE SOCIETY EVOLVING

[Ottawa – February 21, 2013] – We have recently updated our research on broad social trends in values and ideology. The approach we used was to track the same measures asked of random samples of the Canadian public using exactly the same questions and to then test the direction and significance of any shifts that are occurring. It seemed interesting to compare the results of these repeated measures tests with current public perceptions of the trajectory of those trends. The actual trend lines are more accurately revealed using the tracking methods, but it is… [More...]

LOOKING BACKWARD, LOOKING FORWARD – COMPLETE SERIES

[Ottawa – January 9, 2013] Follow the link below for our complete five-part series titled “Looking Backward, Looking Forward”.

In this series, we examine some of the broad social forces changing our society that have been largely hidden from mainstream discussion or even working in ways opposite to the received wisdom.

Click here for the full report: Looking Backward, Looking Forward – Complete Series (January 9, 2013)

LOOKING BACKWARD, LOOKING FORWARD: PART 4

FORCE FOUR: VALUES SLOWLY SHIFTING AWAY FROM RIGHT AS GOVERNMENT DOES OPPOSITE

[Ottawa – January 4, 2013] As we have already recently developed this theme, we will not review it in depth but we will comment more on its implications and connections to some of the other forces. We believe that this force merits discussion for two reasons. First, values are the crucial normative goalposts which define a society and should shape its direction. They reflect what citizens see as right and wrong and what kind of society they would like to hand off to the next generation, how… [More...]

Social Media, Socioeconomic Status, and Democratic Health

ADDENDUM TO LOOKING BACKWARD, LOOKING FORWARD: PART 3

[Ottawa – January 4, 2013] In yesterday’s release on social media, we discussed its linkage to democratic health and to socioeconomic status (SES) – i.e., income and educational attainment. We provide two additional pieces of background evidence. The first doesn’t directly link social media and democratic health but it does show the recent trend lines in how Canadians rate the health of democracy. The trend line is not auspicious and shows that a much longer decline in trust in government, which is pervasive to the advanced western world and began in… [More...]

LOOKING BACKWARD, LOOKING FORWARD: PART 2

FORCE TWO: FROM THE GREENING TO THE GREYING OF NORTH AMERICA: THE NEW GERONTOCRACY AND WHY IT COULDN’T BE MORE POORLY TIMED

[Ottawa – January 2, 2013] Canadian society has never been older. The more apocalyptical grey tsunami scenarios are no doubt exaggerated as we can see in successful Scandinavian societies which are faring very well despite the ‘pig-and-python’ demographic. Yet there is something disturbing about the new generational fault lines in Canada.

These problems are expressed clearly in both the economy and even more vividly the political realm. Youth unemployment is extremely high, the notion that post… [More...]

CANADA EVOLVING – December 1, 2012

Click here for a presentation by Frank Graves for the 2012 State of the Federation conference: Values and Identity (December 1, 2012)