EKOS VS. THE ACTUAL RESULTS
[OTTAWA – May 3, 2011] Canada’s 41st election was extremely interesting and surprising. While we believe EKOS did a very good job in charting the direction of the election and some of the historical shifts that occurred, we were caught flat footed in capturing the majority victory for the Conservative Party. We correctly predicted a Conservative victory but we failed to predict the outright majority. Our final estimate of Conservative support fell well outside of the margin of error and, while it was not that far off the industry average, we were unfortunately on the low… [More...]
May 3rd, 2011 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Comments (14)
EKOS SEAT PROJECTION
“Prediction is very hard, especially about the future.” - Yogi Berra
These seat projections are based on EKOS’ opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional, and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
[OTTAWA – May 1, 2011] As we conclude Campaign 41 and await the public judgement, a few final comments are in order. Despite a bewildering array of contradictory evidence from the earlier polls it now appears that what was previously thought unimaginable has now become a point of consensus. The final… [More...]
May 1st, 2011 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (38)
[Ottawa – May 1, 2011] – In what has been the most exciting federal election in many years, Campaign 41 is drawing to an exciting and as yet unclear conclusion. The Conservatives are at 34.6 points, while the NDP is three points back at 31.4 and the Liberals at 20.4. The Green Party is at 6.3 and the Bloc have dropped further to a modern low of 5.4 points nationally and a mere 22.8 points in Quebec. Of those who are “certain to vote”, things are tighter still with the Conservative lead reduced to a scant 2.4% (34.8 vs. 32.4… [More...]
May 1st, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (37)
EKOS SEAT PROJECTION
From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional, and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
[OTTAWA – April 29, 2011] In an interesting development, as the Conservative Party’s overall margin over the NDP has shrunk to a mere five points, the newfound parity of the NDP and Liberal Party in Ontario appears to have produced significant benefits in terms of seat returns. So while the Conservatives have lost ground to the… [More...]
April 29th, 2011 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (42)
ONTARIO SPLIT AS UNCERTAIN BUT TECTONIC TRANSFORMATION OF POLITICAL LANDSCAPE UNDERWAY
[Ottawa – April 29, 2011] – In what would have been unthinkable at the outset of this campaign, the Canadian political landscape is being profoundly reshaped in ways that are still unclear. What is clear is that Canadians are opting for dramatic change on May 2nd. The Conservatives remain stuck at 34.5 points, well short of the majority that they insisted was essential to ward off the adventure of an untested coalition. The NDP, who began the campaign at a scant 14 points, have now more than doubled their support… [More...]
April 29th, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (19)
[OTTAWA – April 28, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_28_2011
April 28th, 2011 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (11)
[Ottawa – April 28, 2011] – Following a frantic flurry of changes, the Canadian electorate appears to have paused to consider where they have arrived in as Campaign 41 winds its way to a shocking conclusion. The Conservatives are strongly ensconced with 34.8 points with a dramatically strengthened NDP in second at 27.5. The Liberals continue to plumb historical depths as they slide to 22.3. The Green Party is significantly reduced from their status entering the final days of the 2008 campaign and the Bloc Quebecois is in danger of sliding to political oblivion in Quebec in what is arguably… [More...]
April 28th, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (9)
[Ottawa – April 27, 2011] – We update our seat projections based on our new three-day sample of nearly 3,000 potential voters. It continues to show a breathtakingly different Parliament in which the Conservative government is reduced to 131 seats but the muscular new NDP have 92 and the Liberals have 63. This new political math would produce a Parliament where the non-Bloc opposition would have 155 seats, a bare majority and 24 more seats than the Conservatives. With a clear advantage on popular vote and seats, what would happen? Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has stated that he requires a… [More...]
April 27th, 2011 | Category: Election Issues, Seat Projection | Comments (31)
CONSERVATIVES SUPPORTERS MORE COMMITTED
[Ottawa – April 27, 2011] – After a stunning shift in the political landscape the new patterns observed at the outset of the week are stabilizing although there is still some play in the electorate. The Conservatives remain at 34.0 and the NDP is at 28.1. The Liberals have not been able to reverse their fortunes and are now at 22.9 which may be a new nadir in our polling for the Liberals. The Bloc Quebecois appears to have stopped the bleeding in Quebec (and have even rebounded insignificantly), although the NDP is holding on to a… [More...]
April 27th, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (4)
[OTTAWA – April 26, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
Seat forecast methodologies work pretty well, at least the ones we’ve been using. We’ve qualitatively come very close to the actual outcomes in the past four election — including an estimate of 125 seats for the Conservatives in 2006, which was exactly right. So the models work well. But we are into somewhat strange… [More...]
April 26th, 2011 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (21)
[Ottawa – April 26, 2011] – For the fifth day in a row, we see a pretty stable voter landscape which would have been unimaginable at the outset of the campaign. The Conservative Party is at 33.9 points, which is down from the outset of the campaign and well short of a majority. Only six points back are the burgeoning NDP supporters at 27.9 while the Liberal Party is stuck at sub-Dion levels at 24.0. The Green Party has lost supporters much earlier than in 2008 (mostly to the NDP) and stand at 6.8. The Bloc Quebecois is at 6.0… [More...]
April 26th, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (21)
[OTTAWA – April 25, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
Looking at these seat projections, the NDP and the Liberal Party combined would have a majority and 31 more seats than the Conservatives (as well as nearly 20 more points in popular vote). Indeed, It is hard to imagine how these totals would not produce the once unimaginable outcome of a Jack Layton led… [More...]
April 25th, 2011 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (39)
[Ottawa – April 25, 2011] – After several years in a political rut characterized by trench warfare between the Conservatives and the Liberals, Jack Layton and his NDP party appear poised to reshape Canada’s political landscape. With all the necessary provisos and caveats about weekends and how things can still change, we are reporting the results of over 3,000 cases collected from Friday to Sunday which suggest an astonishing shift in the voter landscape from the outset of this campaign. While the Conservatives are still hanging on to a fairly stable (if somewhat diminished) 33.7 front runner position, the NDP… [More...]
April 25th, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (25)
[OTTAWA – April 21, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
Over the next few days, the electorate are going to start scrutinising the brave new political world they have tentatively created. There are profound strategic implications based on these new patterns of support and our data and analysis can provide some hints as to where the electorate might decide to go (and what these… [More...]
April 21st, 2011 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (20)
JUST WHAT COLOUR(S) OF MINORITY GOVERNMENT ARE WE HEADING FOR?
[Ottawa – April 21, 2011] – As Election 41 grinds it way to an uncertain conclusion, we are seeing some truly surprising developments in the past week or so. Building on a solid if unspectacular rise from the outset of the campaign, Jack Layton’s NDP party is scaling heights not seen since the NDP’s salad days under Ed Broadbent. Moreover, the NDP may be closer to the political elixir of real federal power than they have been since their inception on the federal scene some half century ago. This new dynamic… [More...]
April 21st, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (22)
[OTTAWA – April 19, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
It is remarkable how similar these seat projections are to the current composition of Parliament. While the Liberals are poised to lose several seats to the NDP (mostly in Quebec), the Conservative and Bloc numbers are relatively stable.
It is interesting to note the voter inefficiency of the NDP vote in Quebec. While Bloc support… [More...]
April 19th, 2011 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (1)
CONSERVATIVE LEAD WIDENS TO 12.5 POINTS
[Ottawa – April 18, 2011] – The weekends are always difficult times to poll on vote intention but as we are in the final two weeks of the campaign, we have decided to do so. Based on some 2,350 cases from Friday to Sunday, the top line results show the Conservatives at 37.4 – ahead of their end of last week position – and now showing a clear advantage over the Liberals who, at 24.9 points, have fallen back to their position coming out of the 2008 election.
The NDP, meanwhile, continues to follow an upward… [More...]
April 18th, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (2)
[OTTAWA – April 15, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_15_2011
April 15th, 2011 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (22)
[Ottawa – April 15, 2011] – At the end of Week 3, our tracking reveals clear patterns in the 41st federal election campaign.
Despite the wildly inconsistent results that have come out of other polling organizations, we are very comfortable with our numbers and the well-behaved patterns that have emerged.
Conservatives: While this week’s debates have had no clear influence on vote intention, the Conservatives have widened their lead over the Liberals from 5.0 points on the eve of the English event to 7.5 points during the two days that followed. Virtually all of the support the Conservative Party picked up came… [More...]
April 15th, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (1)
NDP SHOWING STRENGTH
[Ottawa – April 13, 2011] – In polling conducted early this week, voters appear to be backing away from a Conservative majority and are now looking more carefully at other options. In what is the tightest period of the race so far, the 11-point cushion that Conservatives had in the opening days of the campaign has been replaced with a scant 5-point lead.
Their comfortable and seat-efficient Ontario margin of 10 points has basically vanished and, at these numbers, the Conservatives would be looking at a significantly diminished minority.
The Conservatives are now at 33.8 points nationally – down from… [More...]
April 13th, 2011 | Category: National Results | Comments (13)
