YOUNG CANADA WOULD ELECT GREEN GOVERNMENT; SENIOR CANADA WOULD NOT ELECT A SINGLE GREEN MP

[Ottawa – December 9, 2010] – It seems that little has changed over the last few weeks, with the Conservative Party retaining a modest five-point lead. Despite talks of a possible Conservative majority, the results suggest that the current trend to minority governments is not about to change. Indeed, at 33.7 points, the Conservatives are closer to losing power than they are to a majority, if there were to be a hypothetical election based on today’s numbers.

The elusiveness of a majority is also underlined by very… [More...]

December 9th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (2)

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – December 8, 2010] – In reporting on our past couple of polls, our favourite polling blogster, Kady O’Malley, has raised some legitimate questions about the credibility of our next to last poll (released November 11th). The basic argument was that the statistical tie wasn’t credible and that our most recent poll results (November 25th) showing a six point lead was “more like it”. We would like to respectfully respond to the question of whether or not this was a fair assessment.

The main evidence Kady offered was that large and “wonky” shifts in regional… [More...]

December 8th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Comments (3)

SOME NOTABLE CHANGES IN BROADER OUTLOOK

[Ottawa – November 25, 2010] – In a familiar pattern, the Conservatives are once again establishing a significant lead over the faltering Liberal party who now appear to be chronically rebuffed by the electorate as they try to move past the Conservatives. Each time the Liberal Party appears to be moving to parity and threatening to crack the once humble 30-point ceiling, they are brought down to the historical low levels of the last election. The Conservatives are now very close to their moving average over the past year, which is still well short of… [More...]

November 25th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (2)

CANADIANS DIVIDED ON PURCHASE OF F-35S

[Ottawa – November 11, 2010] – Canada’s federal vote intention race is once again deadlocked. What is also striking is that we once again encounter the highly unusual situation where no party can secure even 30% support from the disenchanted Canadian electorate (for the second time is less than four months). As these levels, no party is even close to forming a stable minority government, let alone a majority.

Despite a blip upward in our last reporting period for the Conservatives, this most recent poll seems to point to a political landscape which lacks any clear… [More...]

November 11th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (1)

DRAMATIC DECLINE IN OUTLOOK ON COUNTRY AND GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – October 28, 2010] – Similar to the last reporting period, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by a comfortable six-point margin (33.9% to 27.8%). What is unusual, however, is the week to week volatility seen over the two-week data collection period. In the first week, the two parties were in a statistical tie. The Conservative Party’s better performance in the second week was largely a product of an upswing in Ontario.

Also interesting to note is that the fault lines in education and place of birth that emerged over the summer appear to… [More...]

October 28th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment

[Toronto – October 26, 2010] As other polls and pundits were calling the race for Toronto’s new mayor “too close to call,” EKOS correctly predicted a strong win for Rob Ford. Over the last week of the race, EKOS’ nightly polling showed Ford with a widening lead over his nearest rival. Our final three day roll up was nearly identical to the final election result.

So why this clearly flawed sense of a tightly deadlocked race? The other polls were off for different reasons. First, Ford surged in the last few days of his campaign and this late trend was missed… [More...]

October 26th, 2010 | Category: Toronto | Comments (1)

[Ottawa – October 24, 2010] – Further to our release on October 22nd, we extended our polling for three days to see if the race had changed in the final stages. While the final three days of polling provides too small a sample (n=275) to treat this as a reliable stand alone poll, it is more than adequate to test the hypothesis that Rob Ford continues to possess a significant lead.

Recall that in our last release, Mr. Ford had an eight point lead. Some speculated that because polling was conducted over an eight-day period (we do not poll on the… [More...]

October 24th, 2010 | Category: Toronto | Leave a comment

[Ottawa – October 22, 2010] – Based on a randomly dialled sample of 500 Torontonian voters, Rob Ford enjoys a significant eight point advantage over George Smitherman (43.9 to 35.6) in the closing stretch of what has been a fascinating mayoralty campaign in Toronto. While not decisive enough to declare Mr. Ford a certain winner, he is considerably more likely to emerge successfully over Mr. Smitherman on Monday.

This claim is not only based on the quite significant (but not insurmountable) lead he now enjoys, but also from analysing the underlying anatomy of voter support. While George Smitherman enjoys a lead… [More...]

October 22nd, 2010 | Category: Toronto | Leave a comment

LARGE 2-WEEK SAMPLE ALLOWS FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANATOMY

[Ottawa – October 14, 2010] – The Conservative Party has managed to widen its lead in the final week of polling to a near seven-point advantage over the moribund Liberals. While still a close race, the recent movements favour the Conservatives. In the first week of the polling period, their lead was a slenderer four points but the pattern is clearly one of the Conservatives returning to a more comfortable lead. The other notable poll finding is that the NDP have recovered to more comfortable 16-point territory after a… [More...]

October 14th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (3)

ELECTION-WARY CANADIANS SHOWING GREATER RECEPTIVITY

[Ottawa – September 30, 2010] – Although Canadians have always said they are allergic to elections, that resistance is clearly down from this time last year, particularly among youth and those not supporting the Conservatives.

In terms of preferred election outcome, a large plurality of Canadians would prefer some form of majority government, a figure that has remained stable over the last year. Unfortunately, it does not look like they are going to get one any time soon. Canadians are divided over what type of majority government they want. There is a slight lean towards some form… [More...]

September 30th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment

CONSERVATIVES RETAIN SMALL BUT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LEAD

[Ottawa – September 30, 2010] – Over the last two weeks, the Conservatives and the Liberals have seen a slight rise in their fortunes and both front runners have now opened a wider gap on the other parties. The Conservatives now stand at 33.1 points (up from 32.4) and the Liberals are at 29.9 (up from 28.9). These gains appear to have come at the expense of the NDP, who appear to be in danger of being squeezed out of an increasingly tight two-way race.

The gap between university and college graduates (and, to a… [More...]

September 30th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – September 27, 2010] – It is amazing to see the interpretive gyrations that the punditocracy have displayed in “analysing” the gun registry battle. Perhaps the only thing more amazing is how this relatively trivial issue has been a central political focus of the entire country for some time. Such salience suggests that there is the issue itself and much deeper values, symbolism and vested interest clashing under the surface level question of whether we should dismantle this relatively small and unobtrusive program. Research suggests that the actual costs and intrusiveness of the registration… [More...]

September 27th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Comments (4)

[Ottawa – September 16, 2010] – Over the last two weeks, we have seen a very stable pattern with the Tories enjoying a scant but statistically significant lead. The numbers are precariously balanced for the parties such that even very modest shifts can profoundly alter the likely outcome of the next election. Perhaps the most notable feature is how elusive a single party majority (or even a stable minority) has become. Stephen Harper came to power with a minority government that the voters thought was the right antidote to the regime fatigue they felt with what had become near chronic… [More...]

September 16th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Leave a comment

[OTTAWA – September 16, 2010] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Below are the seat projections based on both last week and the previous week. It is remarkable how consistent they are.

What is most notable about these projections is what a dog’s breakfast this hypothetical parliament would be in terms of the legitimacy and stability of a parliament if the current government were to find… [More...]

September 16th, 2010 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (1)

[Ottawa – September 16, 2010] – After what could easily be described as an unpredictable summer, Conservative and Liberal support appears to have stabilized. At 32 points, the Conservatives have held a small but statistically significant lead for two consecutive weeks. In the meantime, the Liberals have remained steady at 29 points. This period of inactivity is somewhat reminiscent of last spring where both parties remained anchored below the 33-point mark.

While the Conservatives and Liberals may be frozen in amber, there appears to be somewhat more volatility among NDP and Green supporters. In the last week of polling, the NDP… [More...]

September 16th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment

[Ottawa – September 2, 2010] – For the second time in a month, the Conservatives and the Liberals have moved into a statistical tie. While Michael Ignatieff’s travelling redemption show may have brought him and his party back from life support to fully fledged contenders for the next government, the demographic patterns suggest that the new parity is as much a product of Tory largesse to their competitors as any action on part of the Liberals. Indeed, in a frankly incomprehensible manner, Stephen Harper may very well have resuscitated the Leader of the Opposition with his decision to cancel the… [More...]

September 2nd, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Leave a comment

EDUCATION EMERGING AS CRUCIAL FAULT LINE IN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

[Ottawa – September 2, 2010] – In a surprising development, we see the political landscape now  in a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives. There is clear evidence as to why the Conservatives have squandered a comfortable 11 point lead at the beginning of the summer; and there are interesting hints as to what issues and forces may shape the fall season and any ensuing election over the next year.

In the last week of polling, the Conservatives and the Liberals were in an almost exact tie at 29.4% and 29.1%, respectively… [More...]

September 2nd, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (1)

DEFECTING UNIVERSITY EDUCATED VOTERS PROPEL GRITS INTO A MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE RACE

[Ottawa – August 19, 2010] – Our most recent poll – particularly the last week of polling – has changed little from our last reporting period. The Conservatives have widened their lead from one to five points and now lead 32.5 to 27.9. While this change is only marginally significant, it pulls the Conservatives out of a statistical tie into a small but significant lead. The real value of the poll is in examining the patterns of the last two months in order to assess whether the media brouhaha… [More...]

August 19th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (4)

[Ottawa – August 5, 2010] – First of all, everyone seems to focus on the last week and it is the more interesting but the first week of the two week period was much better for the Conservatives and more consistent with previous weeks. The last week, however, clearly seems to show a significant shift in the voter landscape

As the Conservatives slip below the 30-point margin, it might be time for Stephen Harper to call in. This is really a very bad poll for the Conservatives. They have slipped back into a virtual tie with the Liberals and now have… [More...]

August 5th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Comments (2)