[Ottawa – September 16, 2010] – Over the last two weeks, we have seen a very stable pattern with the Tories enjoying a scant but statistically significant lead. The numbers are precariously balanced for the parties such that even very modest shifts can profoundly alter the likely outcome of the next election. Perhaps the most notable feature is how elusive a single party majority (or even a stable minority) has become. Stephen Harper came to power with a minority government that the voters thought was the right antidote to the regime fatigue they felt with what had become near chronic… [More...]

September 16th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Leave a comment

[OTTAWA – September 16, 2010] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Below are the seat projections based on both last week and the previous week. It is remarkable how consistent they are.

What is most notable about these projections is what a dog’s breakfast this hypothetical parliament would be in terms of the legitimacy and stability of a parliament if the current government were to find… [More...]

September 16th, 2010 | Category: Seat Projection | Comments (1)

[Ottawa – September 16, 2010] – After what could easily be described as an unpredictable summer, Conservative and Liberal support appears to have stabilized. At 32 points, the Conservatives have held a small but statistically significant lead for two consecutive weeks. In the meantime, the Liberals have remained steady at 29 points. This period of inactivity is somewhat reminiscent of last spring where both parties remained anchored below the 33-point mark.

While the Conservatives and Liberals may be frozen in amber, there appears to be somewhat more volatility among NDP and Green supporters. In the last week of polling, the NDP… [More...]

September 16th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment

[Ottawa – September 2, 2010] – For the second time in a month, the Conservatives and the Liberals have moved into a statistical tie. While Michael Ignatieff’s travelling redemption show may have brought him and his party back from life support to fully fledged contenders for the next government, the demographic patterns suggest that the new parity is as much a product of Tory largesse to their competitors as any action on part of the Liberals. Indeed, in a frankly incomprehensible manner, Stephen Harper may very well have resuscitated the Leader of the Opposition with his decision to cancel the… [More...]

September 2nd, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Leave a comment

EDUCATION EMERGING AS CRUCIAL FAULT LINE IN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

[Ottawa – September 2, 2010] – In a surprising development, we see the political landscape now  in a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives. There is clear evidence as to why the Conservatives have squandered a comfortable 11 point lead at the beginning of the summer; and there are interesting hints as to what issues and forces may shape the fall season and any ensuing election over the next year.

In the last week of polling, the Conservatives and the Liberals were in an almost exact tie at 29.4% and 29.1%, respectively… [More...]

September 2nd, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (1)

DEFECTING UNIVERSITY EDUCATED VOTERS PROPEL GRITS INTO A MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE RACE

[Ottawa – August 19, 2010] – Our most recent poll – particularly the last week of polling – has changed little from our last reporting period. The Conservatives have widened their lead from one to five points and now lead 32.5 to 27.9. While this change is only marginally significant, it pulls the Conservatives out of a statistical tie into a small but significant lead. The real value of the poll is in examining the patterns of the last two months in order to assess whether the media brouhaha… [More...]

August 19th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (4)

[Ottawa – August 5, 2010] – First of all, everyone seems to focus on the last week and it is the more interesting but the first week of the two week period was much better for the Conservatives and more consistent with previous weeks. The last week, however, clearly seems to show a significant shift in the voter landscape

As the Conservatives slip below the 30-point margin, it might be time for Stephen Harper to call in. This is really a very bad poll for the Conservatives. They have slipped back into a virtual tie with the Liberals and now have… [More...]

August 5th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Comments (2)

CENSUS SENSELESS?

[Ottawa – August 5, 2010] – In a surprisingly active summer, there are some interesting developments in the political landscape. The relatively comfortable lead that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives had secured in the aftermath of the Royal Visit, the G20 summit, and Canada Day appears to have evaporated in this unusually hot Canadian summer. Typically, little distracts Canadians from beer and barbeques in the all too short Canadian summer. Yet the Conservatives find their 11-point lead of mid-July virtually eliminated. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives fail to crack the pretty humble 30-point barrier in our last week of polling… [More...]

August 5th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (2)

WIDENED GAP ON UNIVERSITY EDUCATION MAY REFLECT CENSUS CONTROVERSY

[Ottawa – July 22, 2010] – The latest poll shows little change from our last poll. We suspect that BBQs are receiving more attention than the long form in voters’ minds these days. There are, however, some signs that the long form controversy is altering the demographic bases of voter support (merely suggestive at this time).

Overall, the political world seems to be fading from public minds as we head into the summer. The undecided have risen significantly to an unusually high level which likely reflects picnic and beach preoccupation rather than real… [More...]

July 22nd, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (2)

This statement was written as a response to “Give Me Back My Compulsory Long Form Census Questionnaire“ by Dr. Alex Himelfarb, Director of the Glendon School of Public and International Affairs, at York University.

[Ottawa – July 16, 2010] - As a professional researcher, I am dismayed by this development. But I believe that this latest episode is just a symptom of a broader malaise which is increasingly infecting our society. Ironically, some 50 years after the coining of the term Post Industrial Society, where knowledge and intellectual capital occupy… [More...]

July 16th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Comments (6)

LIBERALS AT LOWEST POINT SINCE IGNATIEFF ASSUMED LEADERSHIP

[Ottawa – July 8, 2010] – Given cessation of Parliament, the polling numbers are surprisingly active.

As Parliament closed, the Liberal Party were close to the margin of error behind the Conservatives. This week, they have found themselves nearly 11 points down and exploring a basement level support for their party.

The Conservative are the only clear beneficiaries of this Liberal swoon and now would have a legitimate minority government in an election were held today.

The Liberals should be particularly alarmed about newfound Conservative strength in Ontario, where they now have a sizeable lead. Even… [More...]

July 8th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (9)

[Ottawa - June 29, 2010] EKOS Research Associates would like to announce that during the summer months, we will be returning to bi-weekly reporting on vote intention. Our next vote intention poll will be released on July 8th and we will continue to report every two weeks after that.

Reporting on federal vote intention every second week will allow us to augment our sample size, allowing for even more robust regional samples…

June 29th, 2010 | Category: Uncategorized | Leave a comment

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – June 24, 2010] – One way of looking at the current political landscape is to compare relative political fortunes today with those at the outset of parliament in the fall. Think of this as a melodrama in several distinct chapters:

CHAPTER ONE: HARPERMANIA!

Stephen Harper delivers a compelling Michael Bublé impersonation at the National Arts Centre and soars to clear majority territory.

Michael Ignatieff tries a Trudeauesque gunslinger showdown with Harper by threatening election but the Trudeau redux manoeuvre leaves him gasping in the dust 15 points down and with his approval rating plummeting to George… [More...]

June 24th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Leave a comment

[Ottawa – June 24, 2010] - There is little to distinguish the most recent poll from a pattern which appears to be increasingly locked in. With the summer now here, stingy voters have no clear choice as to who should rule if there were to be an election now.

The Conservatives are hanging on to a very narrow margin of advantage, which barely exceeds the margin of error of the poll. Worse, at 31 points, they are decisively down from the last election and well short of the majority territory they found themselves in last fall. The cumulative effects of a… [More...]

June 24th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (4)

[Ottawa – June 17, 2010] – What a mess! An increasingly muddled political landscape has few points of clarity. Perhaps the only clear conclusion we can draw from the most recent poll and the marked patterns of recent trajectory is that Canadians have no party which would come even close to achieving a plausible mandate from an ever more disgruntled and fragmented electorate. It is difficult to imagine how a hobbled 116 seat strong Conservative Party could achieve, let alone sustain, parliamentary confidence (or public confidence). The enfeebled Liberals are even further away from anything resembling a mandate to rule… [More...]

June 24th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Leave a comment

[Ottawa – June 10, 2010] – The new poll, and the recent trajectory behind it, suggest a quite different political landscape than even 3 weeks ago. Although the changes have been slight, the strategic implications of the differences are profound. The Conservatives have slipped from being clearly in the driver’s seat to riding shotgun with scant distance between them and their pursuers. Moreover, the recent trajectory has cast them in the new role of a floundering party.

Perhaps the most troubling feature of this poll for the Conservatives are the directional numbers. Confidence in national direction has been steadily slipping over… [More...]

June 24th, 2010 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Leave a comment

LOWEST EVER SCORE FOR DIRECTION OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – June 17, 2010] - In a virtually unprecedented political landscape, no federal party can break the rather humble 30.5 percent level. As a vivid indicator of the temper of the times, the electorate have bestowed the lowest ever rating of federal direction. It is not the “statistical” significance of the modest week to week fluctuations which is interesting; it is the overall trajectory and patterns of the last several weeks which are revealing. These patterns are highly significant and paint a rather bleak picture for both the Liberals and the Conservatives.

It… [More...]

June 17th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (1)

DIRECTION OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TIES RECORD LOW POINT

[Ottawa – June 10, 2010] - In an often repeated pattern, we see the electorate gently recoiling after bestowing a large lead on the Conservative Party. This has produced a much tighter race. We are also seeing a continued decline in confidence in the direction of the federal government, which is now in sub-40 territory.

These patterns are clearly worrisome trends for the government. Although the Liberal Party continues to be stuck at very low levels, the recent trajectory for the Conservatives has seen them move out of the range where they were approaching… [More...]

June 10th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment

LIBS MIRED IN MID-20S; NDP COMPETITIVE IN SOME REGIONS; GREENS MAY MAKE B.C. FOUR-WAY RACE

[Ottawa – June 3, 2010] - After a small and short-lived surge above the 33% mark which has been elusive for all the parties in 2010, the ruling Conservatives have slipped back into the doldrums in this week’s EKOS tracking poll.

However, there is not much comfort in the poll for the opposition Liberals who remain stuck in the mid-twenties, near to their worst-ever election performance (in terms of votes) in 2008.

“There has been a lot of buzz lately about Jack Layton and the NDP,” said EKOS… [More...]

June 3rd, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (1)