About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

Political Landscape on Verge of Potential Election

[Ottawa – July 22, 2021] As Canadians begin to seriously ponder the end of the biggest crisis in modern history, they are hearing increased chatter about an imminent election. In this brief update, we look at the current voter landscape and recent shifts. What do they tell us about the range of possible outcomes of an election? We also thought that, given the salience of this once-in-a-lifetime crisis, we would connect voting intentions to the issue of vaccine roll-out and the possible end of the pandemic. These linkages are important and could become a force in shaping the final outcome of a possible election. [More...]

Politics and Pandemic

[Ottawa – June 16, 2021] As the public begin to believe that the worst of the pandemic is now behind us, it is interesting to chart where the voter landscape is today. Talk of elections is in the air and there are important linkages between the voter landscape and the pandemic. No issue rivals the pandemic in salience for the public and the sense that the worst is over may well be working in favour of the incumbent Liberals. [More...]

Previously Frozen Political Landscape Now Moving in Favour of Liberals

[Ottawa – May 7, 2021] In a new poll, the relative stability of the political landscape appears to have been disrupted by a sharp rise in public belief that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. As vaccine rollout rises dramatically, the fortunes of the Conservative Party, who had staked out a view that the vaccine rollout was going to be calamitously distant in the future, are falling in lockstep. [More...]

Public Attitudes to Paid Sick Leave in Ontario

As Ontario struggles to contain the third wave of COVID-19, the issue of paid sick leave has become more topical than ever. Workplaces have been a major source of COVID-19 infections and the lack of paid sick days – particularly among essential workers – has direct implications for containing its spread. The purpose of this survey is to gauge public attitudes toward mandating paid sick leave benefits in Ontario. [More...]

Online Hate

[Ottawa – March 23, 2021] EKOS Research Associates conducted a Canada-wide interactive voice response (IVR) poll of 1,230 Canadians, 18 years of age or older for the Canadian Anti-Hate Network. The survey was conducted to gauge how big of a problem Canadians believe online hate is in Canada, and the support for different types of anti-hate regulations on social media platforms. [More...]

Liberals Hold Steady Lead

[Ottawa – January 29, 2021] It appears neither the arrival of multiple effective COVID-19 vaccines nor fears of potential vaccine shortages have impacted the federal horserace. At 34 points, the Liberals hold a small, but stable lead over the Conservatives who, at 31 points, have not seen any real movement in over a year. The NDP remain in third place at 15 points. [More...]

Pandemic, Polarization, and Expectations for Government

As the pandemic continues to exert its fierce grip on Canada we are seeing some important shifts in public outlook. In this release, we summarize some of these key shifts based on a very large probability sample of some 5,200 Canadians polled from November 13 to the 26nd. The research shows the impact of two critical new developments working in largely opposite directions; deep and rising gloom about a much worse than expected second wave and a new recognition that safe and effective vaccines have been developed. These contradictory forces are reshaping public expectations for the coming months. They are also revealing a stark polarization of the public with a strengthened majority now saying governments should be tougher and more uniform in their responses to ensure that deaths and disabilities that would be rendered wasted once vaccines are rolled out are not needlessly sacrificed in this waiting period. On the other hand, a strongly opposed group of those protesting loss of freedom, anti-mask and anti-vax outlooks have shifted from tepid compliance to outright defiance. [More...]

Liberals Hold Stable Lead

As the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic rages on, the Liberal Party holds a stable lead over the Conservatives. At 35 points, Liberal support has scarcely budged since the summer. If the public are disappointed over potential delays in rolling out a vaccine, their discontent does appear to be translating into votes. [More...]

The Coming Transformation: Open or Ordered?

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to The Recovery Summit on September 17, 2020. [More...]

New Brunswick polling retrospective

[Ottawa – September 16, 2020] In our New Brunswick provincial poll release last Saturday evening, prior to Monday’s provincial election, we correctly stated that the Progressive Conservatives were on track to winning the most seats, and that they were “on the cusp of a majority”. This was based on our poll, which suggested the Tories and the Liberals were tied at 32 points each. In reality, the Tories did much better than this; they won 39% of the popular vote, five points ahead of the Liberals. [More...]

Tories on the cusp of a majority government in New Brunswick

[Ottawa – September 12, 2020] New Brunswick’s governing Progressive Conservative Party are poised to come out on top in Monday’s provincial election. The question remains whether it will be a majority or a minority. The Tories, led by Premier Blaine Higgs are tied with the opposition Liberals at 32 points each, but thanks to having a better vote efficiency, are likely to win the most seats. In the last election in 2018, the Tories won one more seat than the Liberals (22 to 21) despite losing the popular vote by six points. The Tories are now polling at the same… [More...]

The Trump Paradox?

[Ottawa – August 27, 2020] With the U.S. presidential election just around the corner, we would like to offer some insights into what might be the most important election in modern history. Our objective is not to contribute to the plethora of horserace polling that is already out there (in fact, we are concerned about the underrepresentation of cellphone respondents in our sample). Rather, our goal here is to offer perspective on the underlying forces affecting this election. [More...]

Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba

[Ottawa – September 2, 2020] The Progressive Conservative lead over the NDP in Manitoba has shrunk to 13 points, with the PCs now ahead 44-31.The Liberals remain in third place with 12 points and the Greens are now at nine points. This is a one point gain for the governing Tories from the 43% share in our last poll in July and a four point gain for the opposition New Democrats. From the 2019 election, the Tories are down three points from 47%, while the NDP mark is the same as the 31% they won in the… [More...]

Over half of voters now support NDP in BC

[Ottawa – September 1, 2020] The NDP now has the support of over half of British Columbians, perhaps their strongest poll result in recent memory. Their lead over the provincial Liberals is now at 26 points (51-25). The Greens remain in third at 14 points among decided voters, while 11% support other parties. One-in-six voters (16%) remain undecided. Our recent polling in other provinces show large leads for governing parties, thanks in part to their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The NDP is no exception, even though they lead a minority government with support in confidence votes from the Green… [More...]

Saskatchewan Party widens large lead over NDP

[Ottawa – August 31, 2020] The Saskatchewan Party has widened its lead over the opposition New Democrats to 32 points, and now have the support of over twice as many decided voters, as they lead the NDP 60-28. The remaining 12% support another party. These numbers are good news for the governing Saskatchewan Party just two months ahead of a planned election in October. Still, nearly a quarter of voters (24%) remain undecided.

Compared to our last poll conducted in June and early July, the Saskatchewan Party has gone up three points from 57%, while the NDP is… [More...]

CAQ continues to have huge lead in Quebec

[Ottawa – August 28, 2020] Quebec’s governing party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) continues to enjoys a huge lead over the opposition Liberals, with nearly six-in-ten (57%) still backing the right-of-centre party. The CAQ, led by premier François Legault has a 40-point lead over the Liberals, the same margin as in our last poll conducted at the beginning of summer. The Liberals are in a distant second place at 17 points. The Parti Québécois (PQ) is in third place at 11 points and the left-wing Quebec solidaire is at nine points. Six percent of decided voters support other parties. Both… [More...]

Ordered Populism and Implications for the 2020 Presidential Election

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to The Pollsters’ Survival Kit In The World of Trump, hosted by ESOMAR and the Canadian Research Insights Council on August 20, 2020. [More...]

WE Charity Scandal Had Clear Impact but May Be Dissipating

[Ottawa – July 25, 2020] The WE Charity Scandal appears to be registering and the federal horserace has tightened significantly. The 11-point lead the Liberals enjoyed a month ago has shrunk to just five points. However, there is evidence that the impacts of the scandal are already beginning to dissipate; at 35 points, the Liberals are up two points from our previous poll. [More...]

Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba

[Ottawa – July 24, 2020] The governing Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba enjoys a 16-point lead over the opposition New Democrats, leading them 43-27. The Liberals are in third place with 18 points and the Greens have seven points. For both the Tories and the NDP, this is represents a four point drop from their 2019 result where the PCs won 47% of the vote, and the New Democrats won 31%. The Liberals are up four points from 14% and the Greens are up one point from the 6% they won in last year’s election. The remaining 5% would vote… [More...]

New Democrats have healthy lead over Liberals in BC

[Ottawa – July 17, 2020] The NDP has a healthy 17-point lead over the Liberals in British Columbia (46 to 29), with the Greens in a distant third at 13 points among decided voters. A further 12% support other parties. One-in-five voters (19%) remain undecided. The NDP currently runs the province in a minority government with support in confidence votes from the Green Party, while the “pro free-enterprise” Liberal Party has the most seats, but is in opposition.

The NDP is up six points from the 40% they won in the 2017 election. The Liberals, with their new leader Andrew Wilkinson… [More...]