About EKOS Politics We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections. Media Inquires For media inquires, please contact:
Frank Graves
President
EKOS Research Associates
t: 613.235-7215
[email protected] |
[Ottawa – July 3, 2020] Quebec’s governing party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) enjoys a huge lead over the opposition Liberals. Nearly six out of ten (59%) decided voters in the province say they would vote for the CAQ, led by premier François Legault. The CAQ enjoys an unprecedented 40-point lead over the Liberals, who are in a distant second place at 19 points. There appears to be no honeymoon period for the Liberals and their new leader Dominique Anglade, who was acclaimed to the leadership of the party in May. Meanwhile, Quebec solidaire and the Parti Québécois (PQ) are in a statistical tie for third place at 9 and 8 points respectively. The PQ is currently under the interim leadership of Pascal Bérubé until they elect a new leader in August. For the CAQ, this represents a large boost in their support from the 2018 election, which saw them win 37% of the vote en route to a majority government. The remaining three parties have dropped since the 2018 election. The Liberals are down six points from the 25% they won in 2018, the PQ is down nine points and Quebec solidaire is down seven points. [More...]
[Ottawa – June 26, 2020] As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the Liberal Party is in full majority mode. At just under 41 points, the Liberals enjoy a wider lead today than on election night 2015, which saw the party win a decisive majority mandate. The Conservatives trail at 30 points and the NDP remains in a distant third place at just 13 points. [More...]
[Ottawa – May 25, 2020] A recent headline based on a survey conducted by EKOS Research Associates reported that a majority of Ottawa residents oppose city boundary expansion, which seems to conflict with earlier research where we found that Ottawa residents are looking for a balance of intensification and expansion. We believe that the underlying data are accurately presented in both surveys and we stand by our original conclusion. However, we would like to address this apparent contradiction. [More...]
[Ottawa – May 25, 2020] Ottawa residents are expressing concerns over City staff’s recommendation to expand Ottawa’s urban boundary by up to 1,650 hectares. In a survey of 525 Ottawa residents, seven in ten (70 per cent) say such a move will put additional pressure on City services, and a similar proportion (69 per cent) feel this plan will increase greenhouse gas emissions in the region. More that half say the plan will also lead to greater traffic congestion (55 per cent) and higher taxes for City residents (55 per cent). The perception that taxes would increase is most strongly tied to opposition for such an expansion. [More...]
[Ottawa – May 12, 2020] As Canadians continue to work their way through the COVID-19 pandemic, we would like to take the opportunity to present an update of how the public see this crisis evolving. We begin with an update on the federal political landscape, which provides an important means for understanding how views on the pandemic are linked to partisanship and other factors. However, our main purpose is to understand how this crisis is playing out in the public’s mind and how they see the future of Canada and the world unfolding. [More...]
A survey of 770 Ottawa residents reveals that housing is becoming increasingly unaffordable for Ottawa residents. Half of homeowners report they could not afford their current home if they were house shopping for the first time today and few respondents think their children will be able to afford a home. This has left many residents looking for alternative solutions and forty per cent of Ottawa residents would consider commuting 30 minutes to a nearby town in order to buy a home. [More...]
[Ottawa – March 27, 2020] Canadians are unified in seeing the COVID-19 pandemic as the challenge of a lifetime. Most Canadians say it eclipses the September 11th attacks in terms of severity and this sense of urgency rose during our field period. Overall, 73 per cent think this is the most serious challenge Canada has faced in 50 years (only 12 per cent disagreed). This sense of historic urgency rose form 70 per cent to 75 per cent over the week of polling. [More...]
The leaderless Ontario Liberal Party has now opened up a significant lead over the Doug Ford-led Progressive Conservative Party. The Liberals and the PCs are both up from December, while the Official Opposition NDP has been declining. The Green Party is holding steady at a respectable nine per cent but, as we have seen in the past, much of this does not translate into votes on Election Day. [More...]
[Ottawa – January 16, 2020] It has been a turbulent beginning to 2020. In particular, the heightened tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated dramatically, resulting in the tragic loss of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 and the deaths of 176 people, including 57 Canadians. In the first instalment of a broader poll looking at public outlook on key issues, we will look at the public response to this crisis. [More...]
[Ottawa – December 17, 2019] Clearly, the Canadian electorate isn’t in a forgiving mood. No matter how they voted in October, overwhelming majorities are happy to see Andrew Scheer exiting the Conservative leader’s office. A scant seven per cent are sorry to him leave, while more than ten times that figure approve of his decision. [More...]
[Ottawa – December 12, 2019] The political landscape appears to be as frozen as the land as we move into Canadian winter with a deadlocked and deeply divided citizenry. Vote intention hasn’t budged in the past seven weeks, although the Green Party and People’s Party are both doing better than on Election Day. Everyone else is pretty much mired in place. It is notable that the Liberals do better with middle class and university educated voters. Support for both the Liberal and Conservative parties rises with age, while the NDP does better with young voters. [More...]
The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to Massey College at the University of Toronto on November 27, 2019. [More...]
[Ottawa – October 23, 2019] Our final seat forecast was extremely accurate; however, our final four-day roll was somewhat off. In this brief addendum, we wish to explain that contradiction. [More...]
[Ottawa – October 20, 2019] After an exciting campaign, the 43rd Canadian general election has come to a close. We at EKOS believe we did a very good job in charting the direction in one of the tightest campaigns in recent memory. In the end, we correctly predicted that the Liberals would retain power (we noted that a minority government was the most probable scenario), although we acknowledge that our final estimate of the Conservative Party’s support fell slightly outside the margin of error. This was largely due to a sampling error in our final week of polling (more on this below). [More...]
[Ottawa – October 21, 2019] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with more than 100,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates. [More...]
[Ottawa – October 20, 2019] In our final poll for the 43rd federal election campaign, we are predicting that the Liberals will capture the most seats on Monday. Given the trends over the past week and the regional patterns, we feel comfortable that the Liberals are going to win with at least a strong minority. However, the distribution of Liberal support is extremely seat-efficient and there is still a strong possibility that the party could eek out a bare majority tomorrow. [More...]
[Ottawa – October 18, 2019] The 43rd federal election is lurching to the finish line and we still don’t know who the winner(s) will be. The race is statistical tie, with the Conservatives holding the narrowest of leads over the Liberals (32.5 per cent versus 31.0 per cent). The rejuvenated NDP is now stalled at 17.6 points and the Greens having fallen back to 7.9 points. The People’s Party is also fading and now sits at 3.6 per cent. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois have had a renaissance, but that too appears to have stalled and they have fallen out of a tie and are now 10 points behind the Liberals in Quebec at 24 points. [More...]
[Ottawa – October 16, 2019] The national numbers could not be tighter with the Liberals and Conservatives at 31.2 and 31.8 points, respectively. The NDP has risen, but that rise seems to have plateaued and they now standing at 18.4 points. The Green Party is now at 6.8 per cent and they have seen a lot of their vote cannibalized by the rise in the NDP. At 3.4 per cent, the People’s Party has fallen back somewhat, while the Bloc Québécois is 6.4 per cent nationally, which translates into a statistical tie in Quebec (29 per cent, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals. [More...]
This online survey was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. [More...]
[Ottawa – October 11, 2019] We remain in a deadlocked national race, with the Conservatives enjoying a one-point, statistically insignificant lead. Results suggest that there may have been some effects from the debates. The most important finding is the diminution of the Liberal Party’s Ontario lead. The 13-point advantage the Liberals enjoyed in Ontario has sharply eroded since the debate (though there appears to have been a modest recovery in the later part of the polling period). [More...]
|
|
Northern Populism
The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to Massey College at the University of Toronto on November 27, 2019. [More...]