About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

And the Winner Is… We Still Don’t Know

[Ottawa – October 18, 2019] The 43rd federal election is lurching to the finish line and we still don’t know who the winner(s) will be. The race is statistical tie, with the Conservatives holding the narrowest of leads over the Liberals (32.5 per cent versus 31.0 per cent). The rejuvenated NDP is now stalled at 17.6 points and the Greens having fallen back to 7.9 points. The People’s Party is also fading and now sits at 3.6 per cent. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois have had a renaissance, but that too appears to have stalled and they have fallen out of a tie and are now 10 points behind the Liberals in Quebec at 24 points. [More...]

Deadlocked National Race Obscures Seat Advantage for Liberals

[Ottawa – October 16, 2019] The national numbers could not be tighter with the Liberals and Conservatives at 31.2 and 31.8 points, respectively. The NDP has risen, but that rise seems to have plateaued and they now standing at 18.4 points. The Green Party is now at 6.8 per cent and they have seen a lot of their vote cannibalized by the rise in the NDP. At 3.4 per cent, the People’s Party has fallen back somewhat, while the Bloc Québécois is 6.4 per cent nationally, which translates into a statistical tie in Quebec (29 per cent, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals. [More...]

Importance of Universal Pharmacare

This online survey was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. [More...]

National Race Remains Deadlocked

[Ottawa – October 11, 2019] We remain in a deadlocked national race, with the Conservatives enjoying a one-point, statistically insignificant lead. Results suggest that there may have been some effects from the debates. The most important finding is the diminution of the Liberal Party’s Ontario lead. The 13-point advantage the Liberals enjoyed in Ontario has sharply eroded since the debate (though there appears to have been a modest recovery in the later part of the polling period). [More...]

Tight National Race with Evidence of Further Volatility

[Ottawa – September 30, 2019] With just three weeks to go until the 43rd federal election, the Liberals and Conservatives find themselves in a statistical tie at 33 and 31 points, respectively. At 13 points, the Green Party has squeezed its way into third place, while the NDP lies just two points behind at 11 points. The People’s Party is at five points and the Bloc Québécois is at three points nationally. [More...]

Initially Severe Impact of Blackface Fades, Suggesting Unsettled and Volatile Electorate

[Ottawa – September 23, 2019] The images of Justin Trudeau donning blackface makeup seemed to have had a significant but short-lived impact on the electorate. Just one in four Canadians (28 per cent) think the incident is serious, though this includes 21 per cent who think it is an extremely serious matter. About one in four voters (24 per cent) say it will make them less likely to vote for the Liberal Party on October 21st. [More...]

EKOS Poll Results: July-August 2019

Below is a summary of the survey results that EKOS has released via Twitter from July to August 2019. The tables below include full regional and demographic breakdowns, as well as methodological statements. [More...]

Conservative Fortunes Waning as Liberal Fortunes Rise in Nearly Deadlocked Race

The political landscape is now clearly shifting in favour of the Liberals and to the detriment of the Conservatives. The Scheer-led Conservatives have seen their 11-point lead from just a month ago shrink to a narrow 2.7-point lead as of last night. [More...]

Increased Polarization on Attitudes to Immigration Reshaping the Political Landscape in Canada

[Ottawa – April 15, 2019] In Canada, attitudes to immigration have never been a critical ballot booth issue. Unlike in America or Europe, where they have been deeply divisive the differences in Canada have been more moderate and there has been a political agreement on a broadly open policy on immigration. There have been significant differences across partisan boundaries, but they have not shaped election outcomes in a significant manner. This may be changing in important ways that reflect broader shifts in public outlook.

Our research is examining the evolution of what we have called ordered… [More...]

Rachel Notley Closing Gap on Jason Kenney

[Ottawa – March 31, 2019] With just over two weeks to go until Albertans head to the polls, incumbent Premier Rachel Notley is becoming more competitive. She has improved on some measures in the past couple of weeks, while Jason Kenny has gone down somewhat. Most notably, about half of Albertans (46 per cent) now say the province in headed in the right direction, up five points since February. Furthermore, Rachel Notley is narrowly seen as the best Premier for the province. [More...]

Hockey and Melnyk Fading from Public Priorities for LeBreton

[Ottawa – March 1, 2019] The LeBreton redevelopment garners extremely high attention among NCR residents and there are some very important shifts going on in terms of public outlook.

Eugene Melnyk is increasingly wearing the mantle of author of the current mess. The previously near-equal accountability for both Melnyk and Ruddy now sees a 30-point gap with nearly 70% seeing Melnyk as ‘very responsible’.

Fully 63 per cent of NCR residents agree that the worst result would be for the project to be stalled indefinitely (just 15 per cent disagree). [More...]

GM Closure Risks Major Blowback with Canadian Consumers

[Ottawa – January 16, 2019] The closing of the General Motors assembly plant in Oshawa has aroused widespread attention, with more than half of Canadians following this development either closely (15 per cent) or somewhat closely (42 per cent). [More...]

Oshawa Plant Closure Lands with a Loud Bang

[Ottawa – December 6, 2018] The closing of the GM assembly plant in Oshawa has aroused near-universal attention. Over 90 per cent of Ontarians say they are following this issue.

Ontarians are naturally worried: 82 per cent registered at least some concern, with 42 per cent expressing a high degree of concern. Not surprisingly, the latter figure jumps to 56 per cent among those most affected by the plant’s closure – residents of Oshawa.

Turning to how the public feel about Premier Ford’s handling of the issue, we find that they are largely underwhelmed. More than half of Ontarians (56 per cent) – including nearly full two-thirds of Oshawa residents – say they disapprove of the Premier’s handling. Negative sentiments are particularly high among union members. Ford supporters are generally satisfied with how he is managing the situation (81 per cent), but satisfaction drops precipitously when we turn Liberals, Greens, and NDP voters (21 per cent, 20 per cent, and 14 per cent, respectively). [More...]

Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC): Update Statement

TORONTO, November 27, 2018—Key decisions were made at a November 13 Board Meeting of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) held at the Toronto offices of Ipsos Canada.

The organization continues to build up, as the nine founding CRIC Board Members voted to approve articles of incorporation, bylaws and other policies. Steps will be taken immediately to incorporate CRIC as a non-profit organization, and key direction was taken regarding important industry programs such as standards and advocacy, and the CMRP designation. [More...]

The New Populism: Values, Economics, and Democracy

This presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy on October 24, 2018. [More...]

Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC)

Momentum continues to build for the Canadian Research Insights Council (“CRIC”), the new industry association established to represent market and survey research agencies and industry partners.

Since its inaugural meeting on August 30, members of the Interim Board have taken a number of steps to formalize the association. The new name is meant to recognize both traditional and emerging research methodologies, as well as the constantly evolving industry landscape.

The decision to launch CRIC follows the demise of MRIA in July, which left a major void in the industry. The Interim Board is aiming to hold its first open board meeting in Q1 of 2019. [More...]

Establishment of a New Industry Association for Research Agencies

On August 30, the CEOs of some of Canada’s largest market and survey research firms held the inaugural meeting of a new industry association for market and survey research agencies and industry partners.

The leadership of Environics Research, Ipsos Canada, Leger, Nanos Research, EKOS Research Associates, Corporate Research Associates, CRC Research and Canada Viewpoint attended a planning meeting in Ottawa, where the decision was made to immediately establish the new association.

The association’s primary mandate will be to act as the standard-bearer for quality research and world-leading industry standards, and ensuring that member firms conduct research that is rooted in a foundation of rigorous and ethical data collection. Its scope will include advocacy on regulatory and legislative matters, the continuation of the Survey Registration System, and the upholding of the Canadian Charter of Respondent Rights. [More...]

Joint Statement by the Heads of Canada’s Largest Market and Survey Research Firms in Reaction to the Winding-down of the Market and Survey Research Association (MRIA)

Earlier this morning, the CEOs of some of Canada’s largest market and survey research firms held a conference call to discuss the statement issued today by the Market and Survey Research Association (MRIA) that the organization was ceasing operations.

Participants on the call included the leadership of Environics Research, Leger Analytics, Leger 360, Nanos Research, EKOS Research Associates, Corporate Research Associates and CRC Research. The joint statement below captures their initial reaction. Other industry leaders will be included in future discussions about the vital need to continue to uphold industry standards and certification practices in the absence of the MRIA. [More...]

EKOS Accurately Predicts PC Majority Victory

[Ottawa – June 12, 2018] After an exciting campaign, the 42nd Ontario general election has come to a close. We at EKOS believe we did a very good job in charting the direction of what was one of the most unusual election campaigns in recent memory. We first noted on June 1st that, barring significant changes, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives appeared headed for a majority government. The race remained relatively stable in the final week and we affirmed this prediction on June 6th. Furthermore, we captured the popular support of all four contenders to within the margin of error. [More...]

EKOS Seat Projection

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.
[Ottawa – June 7, 2018] It’s that time again, it’s election day! And as we did in the last federal election, we are going to be bold and once again do a seat by seat prediction of today’s provincial election in Ontario. In our 2011 we got more seats correct than any publicly available projection model or prediction, and we are hoping to replicate that again for this election. However, predicting elections is often a fool’s game and if polling is wildly off, we will be too. [More...]