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[Ottawa – June 27, 2022] We have just wrapped our post-election study in Ontario. The two noteworthy results of the election were; 1) Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives winning an increased majority from 2018, and 2) the lowest voter turnout in the history of Ontario, where 43.5% of the eligible voters came to the polls. Our study looks at these issues and has identified some underlying causes for why they happened. [More...] 
[Ottawa – June 23, 2022] A national poll shows a large majority of Canadians think protests should be conducted on foot, not in a vehicle. By a nearly three-to-one margin, Canadians think vehicles should not be part of national protests (opposition would most likely rise if the question had referred to 18 wheelers). [More...] 
[Ottawa – June 6, 2022] Here at EKOS Research, we are proud to have successfully forecasted the outcome of the Ontario election correctly for the sixth consecutive time. We predicted that Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives would win a second majority based on our estimates of voting intention and seat projections. To their credit, they exceeded our estimates and won 83 seats. [More...] 
[Ottawa – June 1, 2022] As Ontarians go to the polls tomorrow, the governing Progressive Conservatives have a ten-point lead over both the Liberals and the NDP, the final EKOS Research survey of the 2022 provincial election has found. Among decided and leaning voters, the Progressive Conservatives led by Doug Ford have 37.0% support. The Liberals (24.7%) and the New Democrats (23.5%) are statistically tied. The Greens led by Mike Schreiner have 8.7%, while the New Blue Party comes in with 4.4%. [More...] Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast. [Ottawa – June 1, 2022] It’s that time again, it’s election day! And as we did in the last Ontario election, we are going to be bold and once again do a seat-by-seat prediction of today’s provincial election in Ontario. After crunching the numbers, it looks clear that the Progressive Conservatives will win a majority government. They have a narrow lead in the popular vote and, thanks to a beneficial vote distribution, will in all likelihood win a large majority of the seats. [More...] 
[Ottawa – May 31, 2022] A strong majority of Canadians want to see Rogers’ acquisition of Shaw blocked – either by the Competition Bureau or by the federal government. Six in ten Canadians (58.5%) Canadians said they support the Competition Bureau’s effort to stop Rogers from acquiring Shaw. [More...] 
[Ottawa – May 24, 2022] The Progressive Conservatives maintain a seven-point lead over the Ontario Liberal Party, a new EKOS Research poll has found. Among decided and leading voters, the Progressive Conservatives has 33.7% support (-0.8% from EKOS last published poll on Tuesday), while the Ontario Liberals have 26.9% (+0.3%). The New Democrats find themselves with 23.8% (-2.1%). The Green Party come in with 8% while the New Blue Party have 4.7%. [More...] 
[Ottawa – May 24, 2022] The governing Progressive Conservatives remain in the lead as the Ontario election heads into its final turn, a new EKOS Research survey has found. The PCs have 34.5% support among decided voters, while the Liberals command 26.7% support. The New Democratic Party enjoys 24.1% support and the Greens have 6.6%. [More...] 
[Ottawa – May 19, 2022] The Conservative Party of Canada has opened up a six-point lead over the governing Liberal Party, a new EKOS Research survey has found. The current Conservative lead is being powered by robust support from men under the age of 50. Among decided voters, the Conservatives have 35.4% support, while the Liberals hold 29.2%. The New Democratic Party has 19.9% support and the Greens have 4.5%. The Bloc Québécois have 4.3% nationally, but 18.6% in Quebec. [More...] 
[Ottawa – May 13, 2022] The Conservative leadership race has done little to break stalemate in the federal horserace. At 32 points, the Liberal Party holds a statistically insignificant, fraction-of-a-point lead over the Conservative Party. At 20 points, the NDP is in a distance third place. Interestingly, the People’s Party is down four points from January, suggesting that the media attention on leadership candidates such as Pierre Poilievre and Leslyn Lewis may be drawing the party’s supporters back into the Conservative fold. [More...] 
With barely three weeks to go until Ontarians go to the polls, what was looking to be a runaway election has turned into a horserace. A week ago, the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario enjoyed a 14-point lead over the (barely) second-place Liberals and a prospect of a second PC majority seemed to be a sure thing. Fast forward to today, however, and the party’s lead has shrunk to less than five points – a clear lead, but insufficient for a majority. [More...] 
This survey was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. [More...] 
[Ottawa – February 4, 2022] As we move into the third year of the pandemic and review some 1,500 charts we have collected, which one best captures where we are today? While difficult to reduce this complexity to a single chart, the chart below captures some of the most critical features of where we are today. [More...] 
[Ottawa – January 19, 2022] As we enter the New Year, only one party manages to exceed the pretty humble yardstick of 30 per cent – barely. At 30 points, the Liberals have an insignificant, fraction-of-a-point lead over the Conservatives. The NDP is at 21 points and the Bloc is at 25 per cent in Quebec. At five points, the leaderless Green Party is not a factor and the People’s Party is at nine points. [More...] 
[Ottawa – January 18, 2022] Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party holds a significant eight-point lead over the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario NDP, who find themselves in a dead heat for second place. If this lead continues to Election Day, Ontarians would see Ford restored to power, but a majority would be in doubt. At five points, the Green Party is not a factor at this time, but ‘other’ are capturing eight per cent of the vote. These individuals appear to be disaffected People’s Party voters looking for a home. [More...] 
[Ottawa – November 27, 2021] Canada is two months out from its most recent federal election and the latest poll results suggest little would change if another one were held tomorrow. The voter landscape shows little movement, which reflects a broadly sour national mood. The polarization and fragmentation that have become an entrenched feature of our political landscape have not gone away and may have gotten worse. No party summons even 31% of voter intention and there appears to be no path to a majority in the near future. This finding comes against a background where the recent election produced historically low levels of public satisfaction. It is linked to a view that while the pandemic may be drawing to a slow conclusion, a return to normalcy and a full economic recovery are years away. [More...] 
Below is a retrospective of our polling during the 44th Canadian federal election, the forces that shaped it, and the underlying movements. [More...] 
[Ottawa – September 21, 2021] After an exciting campaign, the 44th Canadian general election has come to a close. We at EKOS believe we did a very good job in charting the direction of what was one of the tightest and most unpredictable campaigns in recent memory. In the end, we correctly predicted that the Liberals would retain power (we noted that a minority government was the most probable scenario), although we acknowledge that our final estimate of Conservative Party and People’s Party support fell well outside the margin of error. [More...] Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.
[Ottawa – September 19, 2019] In our final poll for the 44th federal election campaign, we are predicting that the Liberals will capture the most seats on Monday. Given the trends over the past week and the regional patterns, we feel comfortable that the Liberals are going to win with a minority of seats, though it is unclear whether this will be a strengthened or diminished minority. Given the seat-efficient distribution of Liberal support, combined with recent movements in Ontario, the party has a plausible path to a majority, though a minority is still the most likely outcome. [More...] |
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