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[Ottawa – January 29, 2021] It appears neither the arrival of multiple effective COVID-19 vaccines nor fears of potential vaccine shortages have impacted the federal horserace. At 34 points, the Liberals hold a small, but stable lead over the Conservatives who, at 31 points, have not seen any real movement in over a year. The NDP remain in third place at 15 points. [More...] 
As the pandemic continues to exert its fierce grip on Canada we are seeing some important shifts in public outlook. In this release, we summarize some of these key shifts based on a very large probability sample of some 5,200 Canadians polled from November 13 to the 26nd. The research shows the impact of two critical new developments working in largely opposite directions; deep and rising gloom about a much worse than expected second wave and a new recognition that safe and effective vaccines have been developed. These contradictory forces are reshaping public expectations for the coming months. They are also revealing a stark polarization of the public with a strengthened majority now saying governments should be tougher and more uniform in their responses to ensure that deaths and disabilities that would be rendered wasted once vaccines are rolled out are not needlessly sacrificed in this waiting period. On the other hand, a strongly opposed group of those protesting loss of freedom, anti-mask and anti-vax outlooks have shifted from tepid compliance to outright defiance. [More...] 
As the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic rages on, the Liberal Party holds a stable lead over the Conservatives. At 35 points, Liberal support has scarcely budged since the summer. If the public are disappointed over potential delays in rolling out a vaccine, their discontent does appear to be translating into votes. [More...] [Ottawa – September 16, 2020] In our New Brunswick provincial poll release last Saturday evening, prior to Monday’s provincial election, we correctly stated that the Progressive Conservatives were on track to winning the most seats, and that they were “on the cusp of a majority”. This was based on our poll, which suggested the Tories and the Liberals were tied at 32 points each. In reality, the Tories did much better than this; they won 39% of the popular vote, five points ahead of the Liberals. [More...] 
[Ottawa – September 12, 2020] New Brunswick’s governing Progressive Conservative Party are poised to come out on top in Monday’s provincial election. The question remains whether it will be a majority or a minority. The Tories, led by Premier Blaine Higgs are tied with the opposition Liberals at 32 points each, but thanks to having a better vote efficiency, are likely to win the most seats. In the last election in 2018, the Tories won one more seat than the Liberals (22 to 21) despite losing the popular vote by six points. The Tories are now polling at the same… [More...] 
[Ottawa – August 27, 2020] With the U.S. presidential election just around the corner, we would like to offer some insights into what might be the most important election in modern history. Our objective is not to contribute to the plethora of horserace polling that is already out there (in fact, we are concerned about the underrepresentation of cellphone respondents in our sample). Rather, our goal here is to offer perspective on the underlying forces affecting this election. [More...] 
[Ottawa – September 2, 2020] The Progressive Conservative lead over the NDP in Manitoba has shrunk to 13 points, with the PCs now ahead 44-31.The Liberals remain in third place with 12 points and the Greens are now at nine points. This is a one point gain for the governing Tories from the 43% share in our last poll in July and a four point gain for the opposition New Democrats. From the 2019 election, the Tories are down three points from 47%, while the NDP mark is the same as the 31% they won in the… [More...] 
[Ottawa – September 1, 2020] The NDP now has the support of over half of British Columbians, perhaps their strongest poll result in recent memory. Their lead over the provincial Liberals is now at 26 points (51-25). The Greens remain in third at 14 points among decided voters, while 11% support other parties. One-in-six voters (16%) remain undecided. Our recent polling in other provinces show large leads for governing parties, thanks in part to their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The NDP is no exception, even though they lead a minority government with support in confidence votes from the Green… [More...] 
[Ottawa – August 31, 2020] The Saskatchewan Party has widened its lead over the opposition New Democrats to 32 points, and now have the support of over twice as many decided voters, as they lead the NDP 60-28. The remaining 12% support another party. These numbers are good news for the governing Saskatchewan Party just two months ahead of a planned election in October. Still, nearly a quarter of voters (24%) remain undecided. Compared to our last poll conducted in June and early July, the Saskatchewan Party has gone up three points from 57%, while the NDP is… [More...] 
[Ottawa – August 28, 2020] Quebec’s governing party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) continues to enjoys a huge lead over the opposition Liberals, with nearly six-in-ten (57%) still backing the right-of-centre party. The CAQ, led by premier François Legault has a 40-point lead over the Liberals, the same margin as in our last poll conducted at the beginning of summer. The Liberals are in a distant second place at 17 points. The Parti Québécois (PQ) is in third place at 11 points and the left-wing Quebec solidaire is at nine points. Six percent of decided voters support other parties. Both… [More...] 
The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to The Pollsters’ Survival Kit In The World of Trump, hosted by ESOMAR and the Canadian Research Insights Council on August 20, 2020. [More...] 
[Ottawa – July 25, 2020] The WE Charity Scandal appears to be registering and the federal horserace has tightened significantly. The 11-point lead the Liberals enjoyed a month ago has shrunk to just five points. However, there is evidence that the impacts of the scandal are already beginning to dissipate; at 35 points, the Liberals are up two points from our previous poll. [More...] 
[Ottawa – July 24, 2020] The governing Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba enjoys a 16-point lead over the opposition New Democrats, leading them 43-27. The Liberals are in third place with 18 points and the Greens have seven points. For both the Tories and the NDP, this is represents a four point drop from their 2019 result where the PCs won 47% of the vote, and the New Democrats won 31%. The Liberals are up four points from 14% and the Greens are up one point from the 6% they won in last year’s election. The remaining 5% would vote… [More...] 
[Ottawa – July 17, 2020] The NDP has a healthy 17-point lead over the Liberals in British Columbia (46 to 29), with the Greens in a distant third at 13 points among decided voters. A further 12% support other parties. One-in-five voters (19%) remain undecided. The NDP currently runs the province in a minority government with support in confidence votes from the Green Party, while the “pro free-enterprise” Liberal Party has the most seats, but is in opposition. The NDP is up six points from the 40% they won in the 2017 election. The Liberals, with their new leader Andrew Wilkinson… [More...] 
[Ottawa – July 10, 2020] The Saskatchewan Party, which has been in power in Saskatchewan since 2007, remains popular across the province. They have a 25-point lead over the opposition New Democrats, leading the NDP 57% to 32%. However among all voters, this lead is cut down to 43% to 24%, as nearly one-quarter of voters (23%) are undecided. A further nine percent of voters (12% of decided voters) would vote for another party. For the Saskatchewan Party, winning 57% of the vote would represent a 5 point drop from the 2016 election, when they won 62% of the vote under… [More...] 
[Ottawa – July 3, 2020] Quebec’s governing party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) enjoys a huge lead over the opposition Liberals. Nearly six out of ten (59%) decided voters in the province say they would vote for the CAQ, led by premier François Legault. The CAQ enjoys an unprecedented 40-point lead over the Liberals, who are in a distant second place at 19 points. There appears to be no honeymoon period for the Liberals and their new leader Dominique Anglade, who was acclaimed to the leadership of the party in May. Meanwhile, Quebec solidaire and the Parti Québécois (PQ) are in a statistical tie for third place at 9 and 8 points respectively. The PQ is currently under the interim leadership of Pascal Bérubé until they elect a new leader in August. For the CAQ, this represents a large boost in their support from the 2018 election, which saw them win 37% of the vote en route to a majority government. The remaining three parties have dropped since the 2018 election. The Liberals are down six points from the 25% they won in 2018, the PQ is down nine points and Quebec solidaire is down seven points. [More...] 
This paper examines the issue of whether or not authoritarian populism — or what we prefer to label ordered populism — is a force in Canada. There is clear evidence in the international literature that this force has been a critical factor in explaining the rise of Donald Trump in America, Brexit in the United Kingdom and similar examples in other advanced Western democracies. The paper attempts to clarify the key concepts under discussion based on a cursory review of the recent and historical literature. Using this literature, we identify the key forces that seem to be linked to the emergence of ordered populism in other societies. These include economic stagnation and the rising concentration of wealth at the top of the social system, a magnified sense of external risk, a cultural backlash against the loss of core values for those embracing this outlook, and a wide sense of normative tension that the broadest direction of society is moving in the wrong direction. [More...] 
[Ottawa – June 26, 2020] As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the Liberal Party is in full majority mode. At just under 41 points, the Liberals enjoy a wider lead today than on election night 2015, which saw the party win a decisive majority mandate. The Conservatives trail at 30 points and the NDP remains in a distant third place at just 13 points. [More...] [Ottawa – May 25, 2020] A recent headline based on a survey conducted by EKOS Research Associates reported that a majority of Ottawa residents oppose city boundary expansion, which seems to conflict with earlier research where we found that Ottawa residents are looking for a balance of intensification and expansion. We believe that the underlying data are accurately presented in both surveys and we stand by our original conclusion. However, we would like to address this apparent contradiction. [More...] |
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The Coming Transformation: Open or Ordered?
The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to The Recovery Summit on September 17, 2020. [More...]