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DAILY TRACKING – SEPTEMBER 17, 2008

EKOS ELECTION.COM – SEPTEMBER 2008

LIBERALS SCATTERING TO THE WINDS

[September 17, 2008] The latest EKOS tracking poll shows very little movement from yesterday in the “topline” standings of the parties, which gives us an opportunity to direct attention to one of the underlying dynamics of the election campaign.  

Structurally, the single most important change from the last election is a drop in the Liberal vote. So where are those voters going? Well, pretty much everywhere. In fact if you compare voters’ current vote intentions with how they report having voted in 2006, you’ll see that former Liberals are the single largest source of new recruits to every other party. 

Among Green Party supporters, fully one-fifth say they voted Liberal last time. (The second largest source of Green votes is the NDP, whose ‘06 voters make up 14% of current Green support.) 

The NDP is also reaping a harvest of former Liberals. Sixteen percent of their current supporters are former Liberal voters. 

The Conservatives are benefiting too. Twelve percent of current Tory supporters say they voted Liberal last time.

Even the Bloc Québécois owes 8% of its current support to the Liberals.

interestingly, this is something of a departure from traditional voting patterns in Canada, where the Conservative Party (or the old Progressive Conservative Party) was usually the main beneficiary of wayward Liberals.

 “If the Liberals hope to get back into contention in this election,” said EKOS President Frank Graves, “job number one has to be to gather back in those former supporters who have scattered to the winds.”

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

 

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

3121

629

142

108

1155

946

141

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.8

3.9

8.3

9.5

2.9

3.2

8.3

Conservative

38

39

72

49

37

24

36

Liberal

24

22

6

21

30

21

28

NDP

19

23

15

25

19

14

28

Green

11

16

7

6

14

8

8

Bloc Québécois

8

0

0

0

0

33

0

 

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

BASE: Decided Voters

Sep. 2-3

Sep. 8-11

Sep. 14

Sep. 15

Sep. 16

Conservative

38

36

35

38

38

Liberal

26

26

25

23

24

NDP

15

19

19

19

19

Green

11

11

11

11

11

Bloc Québécois

9

8

9

9

8

 

 

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

 

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65+

<$40K

$40-80K

+$80K

n=

3121

1421

1700

209

990

1281

641

1025

1194

902

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.8

2.6

2.4

6.8

3.1

2.7

3.9

3.1

2.8

3.3

Conservative

38

42

35

23

36

41

45

36

29

40

Liberal

24

23

24

23

21

25

28

22

23

26

NDP

19

16

21

22

21

17

15

19

20

17

Green

11

11

11

20

12

10

7

12

10

12

Bloc Québécois

8

8

9

13

10

7

6

11

8

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.  

The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 14, 15, and 16. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample of 3,121 decided voters (including leaning) is +/-1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data. 

Click to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept17-revised

 

1 comment to DAILY TRACKING – SEPTEMBER 17, 2008

  • Somebody is wrong.Damn right. My question for anonye who talks about a CPC majority is “where are the seats?”In the west, they’ve more or less sewn up Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and there aren’t any more seats in Alberta for them to win (go Edm-Stratcona NDP!). The Libs have been almost totally kicked out BC, and with the NDP still polling strongly, there isn’t much more the CPC can win in the west. In the east, the CPC has lost ground steadily since 2006. It’s unlikely they’ll come out with more than 5 seats in the four atlantic provinces.And in Quebec, their support from 2006 has gone mostly back to the Bloc (with a few votes going to the Liberals). Their 9 seats from 2006 will probably go down to 3, and certainly won’t be over 5.So that leaves seat-rich Ontario. And the CPC would have to win an extra 25 or 30 seats in Ontario, which would be, let us say, unlikely — we’re talking them taking 75% of the province, with the Liberals and NDP splitting 25 seats between them. Impossible.I’m explaining this at length because I don’t see it explained very often. The prevailing wisdom in Canada is that a party having somewhere around 40% support nationally will probably win a majority; that’s what happened throughout Chretien’s long run.But the situation is different now. Unlike the Liberals, the CPC does not have strong national support, but regional support instead. Their high support is in the west, with middling to weak support as you move to the east.So when you hear about majorities, you’re usually hearing about the magical 40% number. What you need to see is 40% support across the country, something the CPC doesn’t have anything close to in Quebec, and has only flirted with (at best) in Ontario.Whew. Again, sorry to go on and on but I think the media are really doing us a disservice, talking about majorities based on completely irrelevant statistics. It bugs the hell out of me and I hope that others will start to question it too.