EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
NATIONAL PARTIES HOLDING STEADY
[OTTAWA – September 18, 2008] The EKOS tracking poll shows the national parties holding steady for the moment, though daily shifts suggest there may be a softening of Conservative support and a perceptible growth for the Greens this week. There is an interesting story regarding voter’s level of commitment to their current choices and where they might go in the case of changing their mind. We will follow up with an in depth analysis of this story later this morning.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
3892 |
842 |
229 |
174 |
1324 |
1126 |
197 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.6 |
3.4 |
6.5 |
7.4 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
7.0 |
|
Conservative |
38 |
39 |
67 |
51 |
38 |
25 |
31 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
22 |
9 |
17 |
29 |
21 |
32 |
|
NDP |
18 |
22 |
13 |
26 |
19 |
13 |
21 |
|
Green |
12 |
17 |
11 |
6 |
14 |
9 |
15 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
0 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
Sep. 8-11 |
Sep. 14 |
Sep. 15 |
Sep. 16 |
Sep. 17 |
|
Conservative |
36 |
35 |
38 |
38 |
38 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
|
NDP |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
|
Green |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
||
|
n= |
3892 |
1779 |
2113 |
252 |
1255 |
1594 |
791 |
1306 |
1438 |
1148 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.6 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
6.2 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
|
Conservative |
38 |
42 |
34 |
25 |
36 |
40 |
45 |
35 |
39 |
40 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
22 |
25 |
24 |
21 |
24 |
29 |
22 |
23 |
26 |
|
NDP |
18 |
15 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
16 |
|
Green |
12 |
13 |
12 |
18 |
15 |
11 |
7 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
10 |
8 |
5 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.
The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 15, 16, and 17. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample of 3,892 decided voters (including leaning) is +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept18