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DAILY TRACKING – SEPTEMBER 18, 2008

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

NATIONAL PARTIES HOLDING STEADY

[OTTAWA – September 18, 2008] The EKOS tracking poll shows the national parties holding steady for the moment, though daily shifts suggest there may be a softening of Conservative support and a perceptible growth for the Greens this week. There is an interesting story regarding voter’s level of commitment to their current choices and where they might go in the case of changing their mind. We will follow up with an in depth analysis of this story later this morning.

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

3892

842

229

174

1324

1126

197

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.6

3.4

6.5

7.4

2.7

2.9

7.0

Conservative

38

39

67

51

38

25

31

Liberal

24

22

9

17

29

21

32

NDP

18

22

13

26

19

13

21

Green

12

17

11

6

14

9

15

Bloc Québécois

8

0

0

0

0

32

0

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

BASE: Decided Voters

Sep. 8-11

Sep. 14

Sep. 15

Sep. 16

Sep. 17

Conservative

36

35

38

38

38

Liberal

26

25

23

23

24

NDP

19

19

19

18

18

Green

11

11

11

11

12

Bloc Québécois

8

9

9

10

8

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65+

<$40K

$40-80K

+$80K

n=

3892

1779

2113

252

1255

1594

791

1306

1438

1148

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.6

2.3

2.1

6.2

2.8

2.3

3.5

2.7

2.6

2.9

Conservative

38

42

34

25

36

40

45

35

39

40

Liberal

24

22

25

24

21

24

29

22

23

26

NDP

18

15

21

20

19

18

14

18

19

16

Green

12

13

12

18

15

11

7

14

11

13

Bloc Québécois

8

7

9

12

10

7

4

10

8

5

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.

The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 15, 16, and 17. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample of 3,892 decided voters (including leaning) is +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept18

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