Tory lead is “gelling”… but plenty to play for among other parties
[OTTAWA – September 22, 2008] EKOS is releasing a huge weekend survey of more than 3000 Canadians that shows the parties clipping steadily ahead within the zones they established in the first couple of weeks of the campaign – the Tories in the mid- to high-thirties, the Liberals in the mid-twenties, the NDP in the high teens, the Greens in the low double digits, and the BQ in single digits.
Increasingly, it seems that the Tories are locked in on a path to victory in the October 14 election.
However, a look beneath the surface suggests that there may still be more to play for than that apparent “gelling” of voting intentions first suggests – at least for the opposition parties still jockeying for seats and relative position.
Among “decided” voters – that is, those who express a current preference among the parties – about a quarter (26%) say that they are “likely” or “somewhat likely” to change their preference before voting day.
Although the percentage of “undecideds” (not including those not intending to vote), is not particularly high for this point in the campaign – 9% of our weekend sample – they are an additional source of potential votes for parties on the make.
In other words, a large segment of the electorate is still up for grabs.
So how might this affect the parties? First, the Tories, have the most committed following. That means they are less likely to “bleed” to the other parties.
As our analysis showed last week, up to this point, the Conservatives have been the single largest beneficiary of Canadians straying from the Liberal fold since the last election. They were picking up about half the Liberal strays, while the other half has been divided among the other parties.
However, if the Liberals slip any further, that could change. Only about a fifth of the remaining Liberal supporters list the Conservatives as the second choice. Most of the rest go to the NDP or the Greens.
So, solid as the Tories’ support now is, it may be tougher for them to grow than it is for the other parties.
As for the Liberals, they will find it hard to wrest votes from the Tories, who are, as mentioned above, quite committed, with less than a fifth holding the Liberals as their second choice. The Liberals might find more fertile ground to their left, where they are the second-choice for many current New Democrats and Greens. Their best hope remains becoming the most viable champion of the “anyone-but-Conservative” (ABC, as Danny Williams calls it) vote, which was important to the party in both the 2004 and 2006 elections.
The NDP, meanwhile, still have potential themselves to become that ABC champion since they are the second choice for many Liberal and Green supporters. However, they probably need to close or eliminate the gap with the Liberals before they can benefit from this kind of tactical vote.
The Greens now have two tasks. They may have some potential to continue growing, as they have done since the campaign began. But more important may be their ability to consolidate the support they already have. Thirty per cent of Green voters say they are likely or somewhat likely to change their preference before voting day – the highest of any party. And although the Greens are now neck and neck with the Conservatives for the lead among voters 25 and under, this is a notoriously hard group to turn out on election day.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
2823 |
673 |
134 |
115 |
904 |
771 |
226 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.8 |
3.8 |
8.5 |
9.1 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
|
Conservative |
37 |
42 |
60 |
44 |
36 |
24 |
30 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
21 |
13 |
21 |
31 |
18 |
32 |
|
NDP |
19 |
24 |
16 |
22 |
18 |
16 |
24 |
|
Green |
12 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
7 |
14 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
0 |
Daily Tracking of Federal Vote Intention
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
3 |
11 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
38 |
36 |
35 |
38 |
38 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
26 |
26 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
9 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
n= |
2823 |
1339 |
1484 |
218 |
900 |
1175 |
530 |
970 |
1035 |
818 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
1.8 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
6.6 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
4.3 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
|
Conservative |
37 |
40 |
34 |
29 |
33 |
39 |
43 |
34 |
36 |
40 |
|
Liberal |
24 |
23 |
25 |
18 |
23 |
25 |
30 |
23 |
22 |
27 |
|
NDP |
19 |
17 |
20 |
19 |
23 |
18 |
12 |
21 |
19 |
16 |
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
12 |
26 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
9 |
4 |
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
74 |
82 |
77 |
74 |
71 |
80 |
37 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
9 |
7 |
10 |
8 |
12 |
6 |
14 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
17 |
11 |
13 |
18 |
18 |
14 |
49 |
Daily Tracking of Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Not likely (1-3) |
73 |
73 |
75 |
74 |
74 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likely (5-7) |
18 |
18 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Sex |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
||
|
Not likely (1-3) |
74 |
76 |
72 |
71 |
72 |
73 |
80 |
73 |
75 |
73 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
9 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
5 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
17 |
16 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
15 |
19 |
16 |
17 |
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
NDP |
18 |
17 |
30 |
0 |
24 |
29 |
8 |
|
Liberal |
17 |
21 |
0 |
33 |
26 |
12 |
11 |
|
Green |
14 |
11 |
22 |
22 |
0 |
14 |
8 |
|
Conservative |
10 |
0 |
18 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
8 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
0 |
4 |
|
No second choice |
35 |
47 |
25 |
21 |
30 |
30 |
60 |
Daily Tracking of Second Choice
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
18 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No second choice |
35 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Sex |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
||
|
NDP |
18 |
19 |
16 |
13 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
19 |
19 |
|
Liberal |
17 |
16 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
19 |
18 |
|
Green |
14 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
12 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
|
Conservative |
10 |
9 |
11 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
5 |
5 |
12 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
|
No second choice |
35 |
36 |
34 |
33 |
32 |
33 |
47 |
40 |
34 |
32 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.
The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 19, 20, and 21. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample of 2,823 decided voters (including leaning) is /-1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept22