Tories are the party of men and the over-65s, but not bound by class
[OTTAWA – September 23, 2008] With all the parties once again today tracking steadily in their well-established “zones”, it’s a chance to look at where the front-running Conservatives are finding their support; and while the typical Tory voter has some of the characteristics you might expect – older and much more likely to be male – somewhat more surprisingly, the party’s appeal now cuts across economic classes.
We’ve said it before: if only men could vote, Stephen Harper would easily triumph with a healthy majority. Forty per cent of men support the Conservatives. But if only women could vote, the Conservatives would be fighting to squeak out a win. Just 33% of women support the party.
Right now, the Conservatives are winning every age category, from youngest to oldest. But there are huge differences in the levels of support. Among seniors (over 65 years of age), the Conservatives have 44%. The second-place Liberals, with 28%, aren’t even close.
The middling age cohorts track quite closely to the national norm. But then, when you get to the 18-25 year olds, the story is different again. The Conservatives are narrowly in the lead in a four-way race, with 27%. And who is in second spot? The Green Party. The Liberals and NDP trail not too far behind.
Perhaps the most fascinating story, however, has to do with household income. Contrary to the conventional picture of the Conservatives as the party of the better-off, they are an almost completely uniform across income groups in terms of their support. In other words, whether you are making less than $40,000 a year or more than $80,000, your likelihood of voting Conservative is almost exactly the same. Our other recent and more in-depth surveys have also shown that these voters tend to see themselves as being of middle rather than upper socioeconomic standing, and are more likely to be college rather than university-educated.
In contrast, the Liberals, once the prototypical class-less party, now skew clearly towards wealthier voters. The NDP, more in keeping with expectations, skew towards lower-income voters, as does the Bloc Québécois. The Greens, like the Tories, draw their support fairly evenly across income groups.
The Tories have serious demographic handicaps in the breadth of their appeal. They still have not connected with women. They are struggling to connect with urban voters. And they have not caught on with the very young the way they have with other age-groups. Unless they do so, they are going to have difficulty rising above the “glass ceiling” which seems to have prevented the party from rising from their accustomed levels of support.
But that should not disguise a historic accomplishment by the Conservatives, to have shucked off the trappings of class, appealing as much to Joe Lunch-Bucket as to the more prosperous who once were their main social base.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
2854 |
721 |
165 |
134 |
773 |
692 |
369 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.8 |
3.7 |
7.6 |
8.5 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
5.1 |
|
Conservative |
36 |
42 |
58 |
45 |
37 |
22 |
35 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
20 |
13 |
20 |
33 |
18 |
30 |
|
NDP |
19 |
25 |
14 |
21 |
18 |
15 |
23 |
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
9 |
12 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
0 |
Daily Tracking of Federal Vote Intention
|
|
September |
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
3 |
11 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
38 |
36 |
35 |
38 |
38 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
37 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
26 |
26 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
9 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
|
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
n= |
2854 |
1358 |
1496 |
236 |
896 |
1161 |
561 |
973 |
1036 |
845 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
1.8 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
6.4 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
4.1 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
|
Conservative |
36 |
40 |
33 |
27 |
35 |
37 |
44 |
36 |
36 |
38 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
24 |
26 |
21 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
21 |
25 |
29 |
|
NDP |
19 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
15 |
22 |
17 |
16 |
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
11 |
25 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
7 |
10 |
7 |
11 |
9 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
74 |
83 |
77 |
75 |
66 |
78 |
37 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
9 |
6 |
10 |
8 |
12 |
8 |
16 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
17 |
10 |
13 |
17 |
23 |
14 |
47 |
Daily Tracking of Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters % “likely” by vote intention |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
15 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
22 |
21 |
19 |
17 |
18 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
18 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
51 |
48 |
43 |
45 |
49 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Sex |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
||
|
Not likely (1-3) |
74 |
78 |
70 |
68 |
72 |
74 |
82 |
71 |
76 |
75 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
9 |
7 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
5 |
9 |
8 |
10 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
17 |
15 |
19 |
21 |
18 |
17 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
15 |
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
NDP |
19 |
18 |
31 |
0 |
24 |
29 |
9 |
|
Liberal |
17 |
21 |
0 |
32 |
29 |
13 |
12 |
|
Green |
15 |
11 |
24 |
24 |
0 |
13 |
10 |
|
Conservative |
10 |
0 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
6 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
3 |
|
No second choice |
34 |
46 |
22 |
20 |
26 |
32 |
61 |
Daily Tracking of Second Choice
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
18 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No second choice |
35 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Sex |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
||
|
NDP |
19 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
20 |
20 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
19 |
|
Green |
15 |
15 |
15 |
12 |
17 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
|
Conservative |
10 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
|
No second choice |
34 |
36 |
32 |
37 |
29 |
33 |
45 |
39 |
32 |
32 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.
The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 20, 21, and 22. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample of 2,854 decided voters (including leaning) is /-1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept23