DAILY TRACKING – SEPTEMBER 24, 2008

Conservatives Dominate English Canada; Dogfight in Quebec

[OTTAWA – September 24, 2008] – The Conservative Party now has a lead in every major region of the country except Quebec, where they are competitive outside Montreal. They have formidable strength in British Columbia, especially outside central Vancouver, and in the rest of the West. They lead in Ontario, by a wide margin outside of Toronto, and are ahead, if only barely and intermittently in the Atlantic provinces.

Increasingly, the Conservative lead over the other parties seems “locked in”, and it would take a major event to disrupt their path to victory now. Liberal support also seems to be gelling (at a much lower level), though there is considerable volatility still among the NDP and the Greens. There is some sign that the growth of the Greens that was a striking element in last week’s story has begun to plateau.

Unless one opposition party emerges more strongly from the pack, which again would take a major breach in the dynamics of the campaign, it seems that the Tories have a prospect at winning a majority, despite their inability so far to break past the 40% barrier. Whether non-Tory voters are aware of it or not, two unusual factors give Harper an excellent shot at a majority: 1) the dispersion of their vote among four parties, and 2) the size of the lead they have opened over the second place Liberals.

So, lets look at some of the regional races. Our large sample sizes give us an excellent picture into what is happening in the larger provinces.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have established a commanding lead. The Green Party, which was threatening to make it a four-way race in the province just a few days ago has now faded, leaving the Liberals and NDP duking it our for second spot. However, this broad provincial picture disguises the urban/rural split that we dealt with yesterday. The NDP is in a powerful position in central Vancouver. The further you move from downtown “Van”, however, the greater the dominance of the Conservatives.

In Ontario, there has also been a bit of a Green fade, but here to the apparent benefit of the Liberals. That has kept the Liberals within striking distance of the leading Conservatives in the province, but like B.C., the provincial picture disguises the urban/rural reality. The Liberals dominate central Toronto, but the further you get from the CN Tower, the more competitive the Conservatives are. In fact, outside the GTA, they are dominant. The NDP has regional concentrations, of course, that will win it seats.

In Quebec, we see continuing strength for the Bloc Québécois, who in our soundings are running strong – well ahead of the other parties. The reason the race seems so competitive in the province is that, while the BQ is a significant force in most of Quebec (with some exceptions in predominantly non-francophone areas), it faces different opponents in the city of Montreal and the other parts of the province. The Conservatives, who are their principal opponents outside Montreal have actually sagged somewhat since the race began. The Liberals seem set to capture seats again in the Montreal area, but the NDP and even the Greens may also be competitive enough in some seats to seriously complicate the Liberals’ hopes.

Turning to the other regions:

In Alberta, we can tell the story pretty quickly: “Abandon hope, ye non-Tories”. The Conservative lead is so formidable that even traditionally competitive ridings in Edmonton may be falling out of contention.

In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives dominate and the NDP seems to have faded somewhat from its strong early start. The Liberals are now once again in the (dubious) race for second place in the two provinces, more a result of NDP slippage than Liberal improvement. The Greens, who have been up and down in the two provinces, seem tracked upward again in recent days.

In the Atlantic Provinces, the Conservatives have been bouncing up and down from day to day – which may reflect statistical “noise” on the relatively smaller sample sizes than in the major provinces. However, the pattern is clear, that the Liberals and Conservatives are in a dogfight in the region. Both the NDP and the Greens have made charges for a few days at different points, but have faded back to allow the two traditional parties their traditional pride of place in the region.

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Daily Tracking of Federal Vote Intention

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Tracking Federal Vote Intention – British Columbia

Tracking Federal Vote Intention – Alberta

Tracking Federal Vote Intention – Saskatchewan & Manitoba

Tracking Federal Vote Intention – Ontario

Tracking Federal Vote Intention – Quebec

Tracking Federal Vote Intention – Atlantic Canada

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Daily Tracking of Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Second Choice

Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

Daily Tracking of Second Choice

Second Choice

Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.

The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 21, 22, and 23. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample of 3,398 decided voters (including leaning) is /-1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept24