Tories’ mid-week sag again; Libs make Ontario a contest
[OTTAWA – September 26, 2008] – The Conservative Party yet again seems plagued by the tendency for a “recoil” by some voters every time they creep up towards majority territory. This week, again, the party began on the cusp of a majority, but under a four-way assault by the opposition parties, slipped back as the week went on.
The EKOS tracking poll shows a blend of the previous three night’s samples. Aggregated they show a gentle softening in the Tories’ vote this week. However, nightly figures — based on sample sizes averaging of over a thousand respondents — show a more dramatic story. The Conservatives rose as high as 39% last Sunday, but have fallen to just 33% the last two days.
“We have to be careful about making too much of these trends,” said EKOS Research Associates President Frank Graves, “because the Tories have charted inside this same band between the mid- and high-30s for several years, now. But it must be frustrating for Tory strategists that every time a majority seems within grasp, it then slips away again.”
“The Tories still seem headed for victory,” he said, “but if the election had been this week, the question of a majority would have been answered differently by Canadians on different days. At the moment, certainly, when the Tories do slip, the votes they lose scatter among the other parties so that no one emerges as a credible alternative.”
There are two elements in the Tory sag this week. One is the now well-established resurgence of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec we reported on yesterday. Once again we see the BQ at the 40% mark – roughly twice the level of the second-place Conservative support in Quebec.
At the same time, the race in Ontario is tightening once again. As recently as last week, the Tories’ were knocking on the door of a double-digit lead in Ontario. Since then the gap has been closing, and just a single percentage point separates the two parties in our latest tracking poll.
“In Ontario, a lot hinges on where those extra Liberal votes are geographically,” said Graves, “and we will have deeper analysis on that soon. But the province of Ontario has come to the rescue of the Liberal Party before, and the party is showing some resilience there again despite a negative media consensus about Stéphane Dion’s campaign.”
At the same time, however, as the Liberal tick upwards in Ontario, the NDP is running strongly too – now cracking into 20% territory nationally, and of course much stronger in areas of traditional strength such as British Columbia, the prairies and part of Ontario.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
3420 |
701 |
279 |
229 |
1004 |
916 |
291 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.7 |
3.7 |
5.9 |
6.5 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
5.7 |
|
Conservative |
35 |
40 |
59 |
44 |
34 |
21 |
37 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
33 |
17 |
28 |
|
NDP |
20 |
25 |
12 |
24 |
21 |
15 |
26 |
|
Green |
10 |
15 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
7 |
9 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this and our other tables on federal vote intention are based on decided voters only. Our three-day rolling average also finds that 8% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote in the October 14th election.
Daily Tracking of Federal Vote Intention
|
|
September |
|||||||||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
3 |
11 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
|
Conservative |
38 |
36 |
35 |
38 |
38 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
37 |
36 |
37 |
36 |
35 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
26 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
|
NDP |
15 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
|
Green |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
9 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
n= |
3420 |
1572 |
1848 |
281 |
1110 |
1367 |
662 |
1172 |
1227 |
1021 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
1.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
5.8 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
|
Conservative |
35 |
38 |
32 |
21 |
33 |
38 |
44 |
30 |
37 |
39 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
23 |
26 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
33 |
24 |
22 |
28 |
|
NDP |
20 |
18 |
22 |
25 |
22 |
19 |
13 |
23 |
20 |
16 |
|
Green |
10 |
11 |
10 |
16 |
12 |
10 |
6 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
9 |
10 |
15 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
76 |
85 |
78 |
76 |
67 |
80 |
41 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
9 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
13 |
7 |
13 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
16 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
19 |
13 |
46 |
Daily Tracking of Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: Canadians % “likely” by vote intention |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
15 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
22 |
21 |
19 |
17 |
18 |
23 |
25 |
21 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
18 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
51 |
48 |
43 |
45 |
49 |
47 |
49 |
45 |
46 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
76 |
76 |
79 |
78 |
78 |
71 |
71 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
9 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
16 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
19 |
20 |
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
NDP |
19 |
18 |
33 |
0 |
29 |
29 |
9 |
|
Liberal |
16 |
19 |
0 |
31 |
22 |
16 |
10 |
|
Green |
14 |
10 |
19 |
24 |
0 |
19 |
7 |
|
Conservative |
10 |
0 |
17 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
6 |
4 |
5 |
8 |
9 |
0 |
8 |
|
No second choice |
35 |
50 |
26 |
24 |
26 |
23 |
55 |
Daily Tracking of Second Choice
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
18 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
No second choice |
35 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
34 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
NDP |
19 |
18 |
16 |
21 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
|
Liberal |
16 |
18 |
13 |
14 |
17 |
15 |
20 |
|
Green |
14 |
15 |
14 |
10 |
16 |
13 |
11 |
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
14 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
6 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
15 |
3 |
|
No second choice |
35 |
37 |
44 |
42 |
38 |
26 |
32 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 23, 24 and 25.
In total, 3,974 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample is +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept26