Stability in Federal Vote Intention
[OTTAWA – September 29, 2008] – Relatively little change in the national top line numbers today. We continue to see the Conservatives weaker in Quebec and the BQ stronger than at the beginning of the campaign.
Note that due to technical problems, we had fewer cases this weekend than we normally do. We have extended our reporting period to four days to ensure a sound sample.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
1808 |
320 |
149 |
139 |
576 |
530 |
94 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
2.3 |
5.5 |
8.0 |
8.3 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
10.1 |
|
Conservative |
34 |
41 |
61 |
41 |
33 |
22 |
29 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
20 |
14 |
21 |
35 |
18 |
30 |
|
NDP |
20 |
26 |
15 |
31 |
20 |
14 |
31 |
|
Green |
10 |
13 |
10 |
6 |
11 |
8 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our rolling average also finds that 7% of Canadians are undecided and 4% do not plan to vote in the October 14th election.
Daily Tracking of Federal Vote Intention
|
|
Election 2006 |
September |
||||||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
3 |
11 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
|
|
Conservative |
36.3 |
38 |
36 |
35 |
38 |
38 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
37 |
36 |
37 |
36 |
35 |
34 |
35 |
34 |
|
Liberal |
30.2 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
|
NDP |
17.5 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
|
Green |
4.5 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10.5 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
n= |
1808 |
802 |
1006 |
166 |
585 |
678 |
379 |
625 |
641 |
501 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
2.3 |
3.46 |
3.09 |
7.61 |
4.05 |
3.76 |
5.03 |
3.92 |
3.87 |
4.38 |
|
Conservative |
34 |
38 |
31 |
20 |
32 |
35 |
46 |
32 |
36 |
35 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
24 |
28 |
24 |
24 |
26 |
29 |
23 |
23 |
31 |
|
NDP |
20 |
19 |
21 |
27 |
21 |
20 |
16 |
24 |
20 |
17 |
|
Green |
10 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
11 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
9 |
10 |
15 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
76 |
85 |
78 |
75 |
68 |
80 |
38 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
8 |
4 |
9 |
9 |
13 |
5 |
15 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
16 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
15 |
47 |
Daily Tracking of Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
BASE: Canadians % “likely” by vote intention |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
15 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
22 |
21 |
19 |
17 |
18 |
23 |
25 |
21 |
19 |
18 |
22 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
18 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
51 |
48 |
43 |
45 |
49 |
47 |
49 |
45 |
46 |
42 |
46 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
76 |
75 |
77 |
77 |
80 |
74 |
62 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
8 |
10 |
7 |
12 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
16 |
16 |
16 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
29 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.
Fewer cases were collected over the past weekend, due to technically difficulties. As such, the daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a four-day (rather than our usual three-day) rolling average of surveys collected September 25, 26, 27, and 28. In total, 2,083 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/-2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income).
All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept29