EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
TORIES ON THE BRINK OF MAJORITY…REALLY ON THE BRINK
[OTTAWA – September 10, 2008] – Doing seat projections from polling data is a risky business. Polls are estimates of public opinion, even if quite accurate ones. Figuring out how these figures will translate into the distribution of seats in our first-past-the-post system is a tricky and imprecise business.
However, pollsters and journalists have spent the last two weeks implicitly making seat projections every time they have spoken of the Conservatives “being in majority territory” or “on the brink of a majority”. They just never show their work.
So we have decided to show ours. Taking our national sample of over 2000 Canadians from Monday and Tuesday, we have run them through a model that takes into account both the special arithmetic of our first-past-the-post system, and the parties’ historical patterns of support.
When we say the Tories are “on the brink” we really mean it. A majority is 155 seats. Our model, based on our polling, for what it is worth, gives them 156.
EKOS’ Seat Projection
|
|
CPC |
Liberal |
NDP |
BQ |
Green |
TOTAL |
|
CANADA |
156 |
82 |
37 |
33 |
0 |
308 |
|
Atlantic |
9 |
17 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
|
Quebec |
20 |
21 |
1 |
33 |
0 |
75 |
|
Ontario |
58 |
36 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
106 |
|
Manitoba |
9 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
|
Saskatchewan |
12 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
|
Alberta |
28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
|
British Columbia |
20 |
4 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
|
Yukon / Territories |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Click here to download pdf: Election ’08 – EKOS’ First Seat Projection, Sept10